# The Hashpoint for September 25, 2026 *September 25, 2026, Dennis W. Davis* > Thirty-Year Yield Hits 22-Year High and ETF Bid Halves Again *Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 25, 2026* The 30-year Treasury bond reached its highest yield since 2004 on Thursday. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took $190.7 million, nineteen cents on every dollar they took Monday. STRC closed at $98.31, down sixty cents, and fell harder than the stock of the company that issued it for the first time in this series. Bitcoin gained 1.3% to $84,679.10. The rate channel worked all day yesterday, and it worked inside the capital structure rather than on the coin. ## The long end takes a 22-year high ![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-25/macro-context-with-btc-price-76d55cd8.png) The 30-year reads 5.47% and the 10-year real yield rose to 2.79%. Reuters and Bloomberg both led Thursday on the same number: a 30-year US yield at 5.44% intraday, the highest print since 2004, inside a selloff that crossed every major sovereign curve. The 30-year reads 5.47% this morning, the 10-year 5.18% after touching 5.21%, the 2-year 4.90%. Strip out inflation and the hurdle rate rose again. The 10-year real yield added 2 basis points Thursday to 2.79%, up 47 on the month. The dollar index holds 101.03 after four higher sessions, and futures put October hike odds between 67% and 73%. S&P Global's September flash composite PMI supplied the cause at 58.4 against 56.0 in August, the strongest since July 2021. ## Price holds, and the envelope sits eight days old ![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-25/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-71306775.png) Bitcoin at $84,679.10 reads 1.32 times the power-law floor. Bitcoin ranged from $82,941.39 to $84,845.05 over the last day at a market value of $1.701 trillion. Against the bands this dashboard last published on September 17, price reads 1.32 times a $63,945 floor and 0.56 times a $152,251 median, up from 1.30 and 0.55 yesterday. The seven-day gain reads plus 8.6%. That band warning now runs eight editions long. The dashboard refused every endpoint again this morning, a network failure in this publication's own automation rather than a fault at the site. A floor that rises a little each day sits frozen in those decimals, so treat 1.32 as a ceiling. Sentiment moved further than price: CoinGecko's Fear and Greed Index reads 45, against 78 three days ago. ![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-25/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-a6ec56b2.png) Difficulty holds 132.76 trillion with the October 3 retarget estimated at plus 1.69%. The hashrate estimator reads 1.09 zettahashes, which tells you little given that the same estimator printed 824 exahashes on Thursday. Read the retarget instead. Difficulty holds 132.76 trillion, blocks average 9 minutes 50 seconds, and the October 3 adjustment estimates plus 1.69% to roughly 135 trillion, against plus 1.36% yesterday. Block 968,539 puts halving cycle four at 61.2% complete. ## The preferred falls harder than its issuer ![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-25/strc-7e31a616.png) STRC closed at $98.31, $1.69 under par on day 137, yielding 12.21%. STRC closed Thursday at $98.31, down sixty cents and off 0.61%. That restores a $1.69 discount to par on day 137 since the instrument last closed at or above $100, and it lifts the effective yield to 12.21%. The at-the-market program stays shut through the September 30 ex-dividend date, and the coupon resets October 1, six sessions out. One detail breaks the pattern of the last two weeks. MSTR fell 0.36% to $161.61. The preferred fell 0.61%. Every prior test ran the other way: the preferred moved 27 cents when the common gained 9.47% on Monday, and 15 cents when the common lost 3.07% on Wednesday. Yesterday it led its issuer down. Hashpoint reads that as the buyback stepping back rather than the lag reversing, because corporate cash carried this instrument from the low nineties to $99.06 and corporate cash can stop bidding on any afternoon. ![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-25/strategy-purchases-227c2be5.png) Strategy holds 846,000 BTC at a $75,416 average, worth $71.64 billion. No 8-K arrived in the last 24 hours. Monday's filing stands: 950 coins at $79,670 and 1,771,238 preferred shares retired in the week ending September 20, both paid from cash. Holdings reach 846,000 BTC against $63.80 billion of cost, marking the position at $71.64 billion and $9,263 a coin above cost. The repurchase program runs near $1.125 billion since July 20. ## Creations decay a fourth session ![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-25/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-f851db75.png) Spot Bitcoin ETFs took $190.7 million Thursday, against $999.0 million on Monday. Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $190.7 million on Thursday. BlackRock's IBIT took $162.6 million and carried 85% of the net. Fidelity's FBTC managed $12.9 million after taking $143.2 million the day before. WisdomTree's BTCW redeemed $4.0 million, the only fund to do so. Cumulative flow reads $57.481 billion. Four sessions now read $999.0 million, $714.7 million, $346.9 million, $190.7 million. Each cut the prior by roughly half while the long end sold off. Cointelegraph counts the five-day streak at $2.65 billion, and that figure is true. The shape matters more than the sum. ## The Bull View - CoinDesk: Bitcoin steadied above $84,000 as the bond selloff paused and the 10-year slipped 2 basis points to 5.17%. - Cointelegraph: Five consecutive sessions of creations totaled $2.65 billion, with September running $2.37 billion. - Farside Investors: A fifth straight day of net creations added $190.7 million, and one fund redeemed $4.0 million. - CoinDesk: FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich called the pullback a temporary pause and put $70,000 inside an intact uptrend. - Bitcoin News Digest: Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 coins added 113,950 BTC since July 15. The bulls lean on a creation streak nobody has fought and on mid-size wallets that kept buying through the rate move. ## The Bear View - Bloomberg: The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004 as the bond selloff deepened. - Reuters: A global bond rout pushed the US 30-year to 5.44%, a 22-year high. - Bitcoin News Digest: Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $82,873 after the 10-year closed at a 19-year peak of 5.11%. - Bitcoin News Digest: Flash composite PMI printed 58.4, the strongest since July 2021, and FedWatch put October hike odds at 70% to 73%. - Trading Economics: The 10-year real yield rose 2 basis points to 2.79%, up 47 on the month. - CoinGecko: Fear and Greed fell to 45 from 78 three days ago. The bears lean on the price of riskless money and on a growth print that argues for more of it. Their strongest number remains the real yield, because 2.79% raises the bar for every asset that pays no coupon. ## The Hashpoint read ![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-25/daily-synthesis-2bb17a11.png) Price at 1.32 times the floor, STRC at $98.31, and ETF creations at $190.7 million. Price sits at 1.32 times the power-law floor and 0.56 times the median, and it gained ground yesterday while the long end sold. That gain is the day's trap. Anyone reading spot price alone saw Bitcoin shrug off a 22-year high in the 30-year. Read the instruments that fund the largest institutional position in this market and the picture inverts. ETF creations fell to 19% of Monday's total on a fourth consecutive session of decay, and the preferred slipped harder than its issuer. Both numbers answer to the cost of money, and both moved the wrong way on a day the coin rose. The bulls get the streak right and misread its slope. Five sessions with no redemption sounds like conviction, and a bid that halves three days running describes an appetite running out. The bears get the rate right and stretch the liquidation story. Forced closes move an afternoon; a 2.79% real yield reprices a mandate. The escalator question stays retired for this cycle, because six sessions cannot move a coupon the market has already set near July's rate. The throttle question stands on Monday's filing, where Strategy spent $2.30 repairing its own preferred for every $1.00 it put into Bitcoin. Two markers carry into the ex-dividend date. If STRC holds $98.00 through September 30 with the 10-year above 5.10%, the buyback outmuscles the curve and the discount is a corporate matter. Thirty-one cents of cushion separate that outcome from the other one, where a break under $98.00 on a 10-year above 5.10% says the largest institutional bid in this market enters October fixing its own paper instead of buying coins. *Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (bands of September 17; every endpoint refused this morning on a run network failure), CoinGecko, CoinDesk, CoinWarz, Farside Investors, StockAnalysis, Cointelegraph, Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics, Bitcoin News Digest, and Strategy's 8-K of September 21, 2026. Nothing here is investment advice.* --- Source: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-09-25/ Feed: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/rss.xml Numbers: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-09-25/numbers.json Dashboard: https://dashboard.bitcoinhashpoint.com/static/dashboard.html