# The Hashpoint for September 26, 2026 *September 26, 2026, Dennis W. Davis* > ETF Bid Falls a Fifth Session as Yields Ease *Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 26, 2026* Spot Bitcoin ETFs took $134.5 million on Friday, thirteen cents on every dollar they took Monday and a fifth consecutive session of decline. The 10-year Treasury yield eased about five basis points to 5.17% and the bond rout rested for a day. STRC closed at $98.49, up eighteen cents. Bitcoin holds $83,997.46 this morning, up 3.6% on the week. The rate stopped pressing and the largest new bid in this market kept shrinking anyway. ## The bid decays a fifth session ![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-26/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-455dd711.png) Spot Bitcoin ETFs took $134.5 million Friday against $999.0 million on Monday. Five sessions now read $999.0 million, $714.7 million, $346.9 million, $190.7 million, $134.5 million. Friday came in at 13.5% of Monday and each session cut the one before it by roughly a third or a half. BlackRock's IBIT took $97.0 million and carried 72% of the net. Fidelity's FBTC added $49.3 million. Bitwise's BITB redeemed $11.8 million, the only fund to give anything back. The streak is the part every headline counts. KuCoin puts seven consecutive sessions above $100 million at $2.9783 billion, and cumulative flow reaches $57.616 billion. Both figures are accurate and both describe the wrong thing. A bid that halves four times running while nobody redeems is not conviction meeting resistance. It is appetite running out on its own timetable. ![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-26/macro-context-with-btc-price-82f3e5d7.png) The 10-year eased to 5.17% while creations fell another 29%. Thursday's decay carried a ready explanation, because the 30-year reached 5.474% and the long end sold everything that pays no coupon. Friday removed it. The 10-year slipped to 5.16% intraday, the dollar index gave back 0.25% to 101.035 after five higher sessions, and creations fell another 29% regardless. Only the real yield held ground, rising a basis point to 2.84% and keeping 47 basis points of gain on the month. ## The preferred takes eighteen cents back ![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-26/strc-d858515e.png) STRC closed at $98.49 on day 137, $1.51 under par, yielding 12.18%. STRC closed Friday at $98.49, up eighteen cents and 0.18%. That leaves a $1.51 discount to par on day 137 since the instrument last closed at or above $100, against $1.69 on Thursday. The effective yield reads 12.18% on the $12.00 annualized coupon. The at-the-market program stays shut through Wednesday's ex-dividend date, the record date falls September 30, the payment lands October 15, and the rate resets October 1 with three sessions left to run at the July level. Thursday broke the pattern of the prior two weeks when the preferred fell 0.61% against its issuer's 0.36%. Friday restored it. Hashpoint reads the eighteen cents as corporate cash rather than market demand, because $1.125 billion of buyback since July 20 carried this security up from the low nineties, and a program with $875 million left can bid or stand aside on any given afternoon. ![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-26/strategy-purchases-7d9f4a7d.png) Strategy holds 846,000 BTC at a $75,416 average, worth $71.06 billion. Nothing arrived from Strategy in the last 24 hours, and a Saturday brings no filing. Monday's 8-K still governs: 950 coins at $79,670 and 1,771,238 preferred shares retired in the week ending September 20, both paid from the cash pool. Holdings stand at 846,000 BTC against $63.80 billion of cost, so the position marks $71.06 billion this morning, $8,581 a coin above cost. That filing's ratio remains the throttle argument's machinery: $2.30 into its own preferred for every $1.00 into Bitcoin. ## Price holds while the network gives ground ![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-26/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-84be9b62.png) Bitcoin at $83,997.46 reads 1.31 times the power-law floor. Bitcoin ranged from $83,229.60 to $85,207.72 over the last day at a market value of $1.688 trillion and 56.7% dominance. Against the bands this dashboard last published on September 17, price reads 1.31 times a $63,945 floor and 0.55 times a $152,251 median, down from 1.32 and 0.56 yesterday. That band warning now runs nine editions long. The dashboard refused every endpoint again this morning, a network failure inside this publication's own automation rather than a fault at the site. A floor that rises a little each day sits frozen in those decimals, so read 1.31 as an upper bound and discount the second digit. ![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-26/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-098086e8.png) The October 3 retarget now estimates minus 0.27%, the first negative reading of this series. The hashrate estimator reads 892 exahashes, down 1.22% on the day and 5.22% on the month. JPMorgan gives the number that matters more: hashrate sits about 19% under its October peak and difficulty about 15% under, with miners moving capacity to AI work that pays a steadier return per megawatt. The retarget agrees. Blocks average 10 minutes 2 seconds, and the October 3 adjustment now estimates minus 0.27% to roughly 132.4 trillion, the first negative estimate this series has printed, against plus 1.69% on Friday. Block 968,671 puts halving cycle four at 61.3%. ## The Bull View - CoinDesk: Bitcoin steadied near $84,000 as the bond selloff paused and the 10-year slipped to 5.16%. - The Block: JPMorgan put mining production cost at $85,000 and said 280 days below that line may be ending, which eases forced selling by miners. - Farside Investors: A seventh straight session of creations added $134.5 million, with IBIT taking $97.0 million of it. - KuCoin: Seven consecutive sessions above $100 million totaled $2.9783 billion. - Fortune: Bitcoin at $84,413 sat 5.89% above its level a month earlier. - CNBC: The 10-year yield finished a volatile week close to where it started. The bulls lean on a streak nobody has fought and on a production-cost line that takes the most reliable forced seller in this market out of the order book. ## The Bear View - Bloomberg: The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004 as the bond selloff deepened. - Reuters: A global bond rout carried the US 30-year to a 22-year high. - Insurance Journal: Bitget told customers hackers took $352 million from its hot wallets. - TRM Labs: The $351.6 million Bitget breach carries likely North Korean fingerprints. - Cryptonomist: ETF inflows fell 81% from Monday's peak by Thursday, and Friday widened that to 86.5%. - Invezz: The 10-year held near 5.17% and futures put October hike odds at 71%. - Bitcoin.com News: Open interest returned to May levels on a negative basis, which says shorts added into the rally. The bears lean on the price of riskless money and on positioning that fought this move all week. Their strongest number stays the real yield at 2.84%, because that figure sets the bar every asset without a coupon has to clear. ## The Hashpoint read ![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-09-26/daily-synthesis-4d5c59fb.png) Price at 1.31 times the floor, STRC at $98.49, and ETF creations at $134.5 million. Price sits at 1.31 times the power-law floor and 0.55 times the median, a notch below yesterday, and it has held a narrow range for four sessions while everything that funds it moved. Friday ran a clean test and the result cuts against the simple version of this publication's own thesis. If rising yields pull capital out of Bitcoin, a session of falling yields should return some. The 10-year fell, the dollar fell, and creations fell 29% anyway. That does not retire the capital-pull channel. It dates it. Money that leaves a mandate on a rate move does not come back because the rate ticked down for six hours, and the fund bid answers to allocation decisions desks made weeks earlier. That is the asymmetry this publication argues at the instrument level, where a monthly coupon reset leaves the largest institutional holder's paper impaired long after the rate that impaired it has moved on. The bulls get the miner arithmetic right and the flow arithmetic wrong. A cleared production cost removes a seller, and that is real. A streak counted in days rather than dollars hides a bid that shed 86.5% in a week. The bears get the real yield right and the hack wrong. A $352 million exchange breach is a custody story, and it moved no structural number on this page. Two markers carry into next week. If STRC holds $98.00 through Wednesday's ex-dividend date with the 10-year above 5.10%, corporate cash outmuscles the curve and the discount belongs to Strategy's balance sheet rather than to the bond market. On the flow, a Monday session above $200 million on a steady 10-year says the decay tracked the rate and ended with it. Another print under $150 million says the ETF bid draws down on a schedule of its own, and the largest new buyer in this market enters October smaller than it started September. *Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (bands of September 17; every endpoint refused this morning on a run network failure), CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, CoinDesk, Fortune, CoinWarz, Farside Investors, KuCoin, StockAnalysis, Trading Economics, Invezz, CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Block, TRM Labs, Insurance Journal, Cryptonomist, Bitcoin.com News, and Strategy's 8-K of September 21, 2026. Nothing here is investment advice.* --- Source: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-09-26/ Feed: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/rss.xml Numbers: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-09-26/numbers.json Dashboard: https://dashboard.bitcoinhashpoint.com/static/dashboard.html