# The Hashpoint for October 3, 2026

*October 3, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> Bitcoin gave back the jobs rally inside one session

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 3, 2026*

Bitcoin got the macro print this publication's thesis says it wants, and it handed the gain back inside one session. September payrolls came in at 29,000 against a consensus near 90,000, the BLS revised 60,000 jobs out of July and August, CME FedWatch moved October hold odds to 77%, and the 10-year Treasury fell about six basis points to 5.18%. Bitcoin ran to $87,086 on that news and closed at $84,505, below the $84,849 it started from. Derivatives desks liquidated $433.6 million of positions, 74% of it long. The coin trades at $84,592 this morning, 1.30 times the power-law floor of $64,872 and 0.55 times the median of $154,457, against 1.33 and 0.56 yesterday. For three weeks the capital-pull half of the thesis rested on rising yields draining the bid. Yields fell on Friday and the bid drained anyway.

## Macro and yields

The H.15 release for October 1 puts the 10-year at 5.24%, the 30-year at 5.61%, the 2-year at 4.78% and the 10-year real yield at 2.88%. Friday took the 10-year to roughly 5.18% and slid the dollar index from near 102.1 to about 101.7. Trading Economics printed 5.28% on the same session, so read Friday as a six-basis-point move lower rather than a settled number.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% on the year, under the 3.4% August CPI. Unemployment rose to 4.2%. September CPI on October 14 is the next scheduled test.

Both Fear and Greed needles moved toward each other for the first time in a week. Market mood, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791110048969000&sa=E, reads 72 in Greed on October 2 after 74 on October 1. Hashpoint structural reads 39 in Fear on October 1 data, up from 37, with band position the weakest component at 17.6. The gap narrows to 33 points on day 45 of a divergence that opened August 20.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-03/macro-context-with-btc-price-468a23eb.png)

The 10-year reads 5.24% on October 1 H.15 data and fell about six basis points to 5.18% after Friday's 29,000 payroll print.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-03/fear-and-greed-61beba38.png)

Market mood reads 72 in Greed against a structural composite of 39 in Fear, a 33-point gap on day 45.

## Power law and network

The band position gave back Thursday's improvement. Price to floor moved from 1.333 to 1.304 and price to median from 0.560 to 0.548. Cycle position reads 0.135, MVRV reads 1.58 against a last-cycle peak near 2.78, and none of the dashboard's six structural tripwires are lit, with supply pressure the single item on watch.

The retarget landed this morning and it came in negative. Difficulty moved to 132.72 trillion from 132.757 trillion, a change of 0.03% lower at block 969,696, against the 0.97% increase the estimator carried on Thursday. That is the first negative adjustment of this series after two weeks of estimates that flipped sign four times. Hashrate reads 929 exahash per second on the October 1 observation, up 0.77% over thirty days, and block time runs 9 minutes 59 seconds. The next adjustment lands October 17 at an estimated 0.14% higher. Block 969,638 puts cycle four at 61.7% complete, 80,362 blocks from the April 2028 halving.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-03/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-ded54256.png)

Bitcoin at $84,592 sits 1.30x the power-law floor of $64,872 and 0.55x the median of $154,457.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-03/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-31b2362b.png)

Hashrate reads 929 EH/s and the October 3 retarget came in 0.03% lower, at 132.72T.

## STRC and Strategy

Strategy confirmed October's coupon at 12.0% annualized, which Saylor posted directly and which the dashboard carries as a declared rate still dated July 1. STRC closed Friday at $99.41, fifty-nine cents under its $100 par, on session 97 of a run that began 141 calendar days ago. The effective yield reads 12.071% and the at-the-market issuance channel stays shut.

The move ratio produced a third reading, and it points where the first two did. MSTR gained 4.9% on Friday to $168.40 and Citigroup nearly doubled its target to $240 from $136. STRC fell nine cents on that session. Hashpoint's own analysis has argued since September 9 that the monthly repricing lag leaves the largest corporate Bitcoin buyer holding impaired paper through moves the coupon cannot answer. Friday is the cleanest version of that test yet: the common rallied, the Fed path eased, and the preferred still gave ground.

Strategy filed no 8-K over the weekend. The September 28 filing stands at 847,666 BTC against an aggregate cost of $63.95 billion, or $75,437 a coin. At this morning's print the position carries $71.70 billion, $9,155 a coin above cost.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-03/strc-fc084db8.png)

STRC closed at $99.41 on October 2, fifty-nine cents under par on session 97 of the run below it.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-03/strategy-purchases-fbd280f9.png)

Strategy holds 847,666 BTC at $75,437 average cost, $9,155 a coin above water at $84,592.

## ETF flows

The funds took $31.7 million on Friday after $102.7 million on Thursday, two positive sessions since the $148.7 million redemption of September 30 and a pace running at 3% of the $998.95 million peak of September 21. Cumulative net flow reads $57.7 billion. Thursday's composition carried the information: IBIT took $195.6 million while FBTC gave back $60.7 million, GBTC $31.4 million and ARKB $7.7 million, so one issuer covered the whole net plus the complex's redemptions.

Supply pressure reads 2.7233 on the dashboard, and exchange balances fell 27,598 coins over thirty days to 2.678 million.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-03/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-2b0aa565.png)

Spot ETFs took $31.7M on October 2, roughly 3% of the September 21 peak of $998.95M.

## The Bull View

- CoinDesk: Bitcoin cleared $86,000 ahead of the jobs report and reached $86,885 in the session

- Bloomberg: a third straight weekly gain on ETF demand, with fund assets at $109.3 billion

- Quartz: Treasury yields sank after the weak payroll print, dimming October hike odds

- Seeking Alpha: payrolls cooled and unemployment rose, so the Fed can wait

- Schaeffer's: MSTR rose 4.9% to $168.40 and Citigroup lifted its target to $240 from $136

- Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin gained in 10 of the past 15 Octobers, winning months averaging 27.4%

- Babypips, citing CME FedWatch: October hold odds at 77% and the 10-year down nearly six basis points

The bull case leans on the rate path and on the calendar, arguing that a labor market adding 29,000 jobs removes the hike that has pressed risk assets since September.

## The Bear View

- The Block: the nine-session, $3 billion creation streak ended September 30 with $148.7 million out

- The Crypto Times: Bitcoin slipped to $84,636 after the $87,086 rejection, $433.6 million liquidated with longs taking 74%

- BeInCrypto, via Yahoo Finance: $4.35 billion of margined longs stack down to $74,170

- BeInCrypto: ETF buying fell 87% from the September 21 peak, and August's comparable streak break preceded a 5.8% slide

- TechTimes: the BLS revised away 60,000 jobs, so the Fed hiked into a weaker labor market than it could see

- 24/7 Wall St: Saylor told a shareholder down from $219,000 to $60,000 to ride through a year or two of pain

The bear case leans on positioning and on the failed level, arguing that a market which cannot hold $87,000 on the friendliest macro print of the quarter has crowding rather than demand behind it.

## The Hashpoint read

The spring lost tension on a day it should have gained some. At 1.30 times the floor and 0.55 times the median, Bitcoin sits in the lower quarter of its envelope, and it got there on good news.

The bulls read the rate path correctly and the response wrongly. A 29,000 payroll print plus a six-basis-point rally in Treasuries is the exact condition the capital-pull argument says releases the bid, and Bitcoin used it to touch $87,086 and close $2,581 lower. The bears read the positioning correctly and the cause wrongly. Longs did take 74% of $433.6 million, but a market clearing crowded positions into a friendly print is not repricing the asset.

What the day costs this publication is the one-way version of the capital-pull channel. Rising yields pulled capital out of Bitcoin through September; falling yields did not pull it back on Friday. The channel transmits stress and not relief, which makes it a constraint rather than a lever.

What survives untouched is the repricing lag. Strategy set October's coupon at 12.0% for a third consecutive month, MSTR gained 4.9% in a session, and STRC fell nine cents. The instrument answers neither its issuer nor the curve, and November 1 is the next date it can answer anything.

Monday's 8-K is the next confirming point. A filing funded from the common ATM again makes the September 28 reopening policy rather than a one-week expedient, and a filing with no STRC repurchase would leave the fifty-nine-cent discount standing on market demand for the first time in 97 sessions.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-03/daily-synthesis-f1887ecb.png)

At cp 0.135, Bitcoin sits in the lower third of its power-law band, closer to the $64.9K floor than the $154K median.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, network state, Fear and Greed composite, tripwires), Farside Investors, Federal Reserve H.15, CoinWarz, CoinGecko, Trading Economics, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791110048969000&sa=E, and reporting from CoinDesk, The Block, Bloomberg, Quartz, Seeking Alpha, Schaeffer's, Yahoo Finance, Babypips, BeInCrypto, The Crypto Times, TechTimes, TokenPost and 24/7 Wall St. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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