# The Hashpoint for October 4, 2026 *October 4, 2026, Dennis W. Davis* > Absorption fell a fifth while Bitcoin held its ground *Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 4, 2026* The price held and the measured demand behind it fell by nearly a quarter. The dashboard's supply pressure reading dropped to 2.105 from 2.723 in one update, putting Strategy and the spot ETFs together at 2.1 times the Bitcoin the network issued over the trailing thirty days. The institutional side of that ratio lost 8,346 coins, and a thirty-day window cannot shed that much by advancing a single day, so the move reflects a revision to the underlying series rather than a session of selling. Bitcoin trades at $85,252 this morning against Saturday's close of $84,742, 1.31 times the power-law floor of $64,930 and 0.55 times the median of $154,596, which is where it sat yesterday. The absorption number carried this publication's read of September, and it came back a fifth smaller. ## ETF flows and supply pressure Friday settled at $31.7 million of net creations, and only two funds moved: Fidelity took $29.3 million and Morgan Stanley $2.4 million, with every other issuer flat. That follows $102.7 million on October 1 and the $148.7 million redemption of September 30. Cumulative net flow reads $57.698 billion, and Friday's print runs at 3.2% of the $998.95 million the complex took on September 21. Exchange balances fell 28,156 coins over thirty days to 2.678 million, and the 365-day drain ratio reads 0.30. The sixth structural tripwire, supply pressure above 3 with exchange supply falling, now sits further from firing than it did a day ago, and it stays the only one of the six on watch. ![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-04/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-0f2dd6d3.png) Spot ETFs took $31.7M on October 2, 3.2% of the $998.95M peak of September 21, with only FBTC and MSBT creating. ## Power law and network Price to floor reads 1.313 on this morning's spot and 1.305 on Saturday's close, with price to median at 0.551 and 0.548. Cycle position reads 0.135, MVRV reads 1.58 against a last-cycle peak of 2.78, and the envelope component of the structural gauge sits at the 17th percentile of its own history. The network ran slower than target through the week and the chain answered. Friday's retarget cut difficulty 0.03% to 132.72 trillion, the first negative adjustment of this series. Hashrate reads 911 exahash per second on the October 2 observation, up 1.0% over thirty days, and recent blocks average 10 minutes 5 seconds. CoinWarz estimates the October 17 retarget at 0.85% lower, to 131.59 trillion. Block 969,821 puts cycle four at 61.8% complete, 80,231 blocks from the April 2028 halving. ![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-04/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-e0d74508.png) Bitcoin at $85,252 sits 1.31x the power-law floor of $64,930 and 0.55x the median of $154,596. ![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-04/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-30c2168c.png) Hashrate reads 911 EH/s and the October 17 retarget estimates 0.85% lower, to 131.59T. ## Macro and yields The H.15 release for October 1 puts the 10-year at 5.24%, the 30-year at 5.61%, the 2-year at 4.78% and the 10-year real yield at 2.88%. Friday's market closes ran about five basis points higher across the curve, with the 10-year near 5.28%, the 30-year at 5.62% and the 2-year at 4.83%. The dollar index closed at 101.932, down 0.16% on the day and up 3.1% on the month. CME FedWatch now prices October hike odds at 17%, against 36% a week earlier and the 70% this publication reported on September 29. December odds hold above 75%, so the market moved the hike rather than removing it. Both sentiment needles came down and the gap closed. Market mood, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791195916350000&sa=E, reads 67 in Greed on October 3 after 72 the day before. Hashpoint structural reads 38 in Fear on October 2 data. The spread narrows to 29 points, the tightest since the divergence opened on August 20, and it narrowed because the crowd gave ground rather than because the structure gained any. ![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-04/macro-context-with-btc-price-f431d4f3.png) The 10-year reads 5.24% on October 1 H.15 data and closed Friday near 5.28%, with the dollar index at 101.932. ![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-04/fear-and-greed-889055e8.png) Market mood fell to 67 against a structural composite of 38, closing the gap to 29 points on day 45. ## STRC and Strategy STRC closed Friday at $99.41, fifty-nine cents under its $100 par, on session 97 below the line and 141 calendar days since the last close at or above it on May 14. The effective yield reads 12.071% on the $12.00 declared annual rate, which Strategy set on July 1 and has carried through three monthly cycles. The at-the-market issuance channel stays shut. Strategy filed no 8-K over the weekend. The September 28 filing stands at 847,666 BTC against an aggregate cost of $63.95 billion, or $75,437 a coin. At this morning's print the position carries $72.27 billion, $9,815 a coin above cost. IBIT added 3,736 coins over seven days against Strategy's 1,666, so the largest fund outbought the largest corporate holder better than two to one. Hashpoint's own analysis has held since September 9 that the monthly repricing lag keeps the largest corporate Bitcoin buyer holding impaired paper through moves its coupon cannot answer. November 1 is the next date that rate can change. ![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-04/strc-fc084db8.png) STRC closed at $99.41 on October 2, fifty-nine cents under par on session 97 below the line. ![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-04/strategy-purchases-256016e5.png) Strategy holds 847,666 BTC at $75,437 average cost, $9,815 a coin above water at $85,252. ## The Bull View - Bitcoin News Digest, citing CME FedWatch: October hike odds collapsed to 17% from 36% a week earlier after the 29,000 payroll print - Bloomberg: the IMF approved a $139 million disbursement to El Salvador after waiving its restriction on Bitcoin accumulation - Bitcoin News Digest: Citigroup lifted its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 and its Strategy target to $240 from $136 - Bitcoin News Digest: spot ETF net assets reached $109.3 billion, 6.43% of Bitcoin market capitalization, with demand back inside a day of the single redemption - UseTheBitcoin: futures taker CVD returned to positive and the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio gained 37% in the third quarter, its best since late 2024 The bull case leans on the rate path and on institutional plumbing, arguing that a Fed which cannot hike in October gives risk assets a window the ETF complex will fill. ## The Bear View - The Crypto Times: Bitcoin slipped to $84,636 after the $87,086 rejection, with $433.6 million liquidated and longs taking 74% - Bitcoin News Digest: the 10-year closed near 5.28%, the 30-year at 5.62% and the 2-year at 4.83%, each up about five basis points on the friendliest payroll print of the quarter - Bitcoin News Digest: December hike odds held above 75% even as October odds fell to 17% - Farside Investors: Friday's $31.7 million came from two funds and runs at 3.2% of the September 21 peak - Bitcoin News Digest: Hester Peirce left the SEC on October 2, cutting the Commission to two sitting members The bear case leans on the curve and on the thinness of the bid, arguing that a market which could not hold $87,000 on a 29,000 payroll print, while long rates rose anyway, has no catalyst left in the quarter. ## The Hashpoint read The spring sits where it sat yesterday and the hand holding it loosened. At 1.31 times the floor and 0.55 times the median, Bitcoin occupies the lower quarter of its envelope, and the measure this publication used to explain why it stayed there just fell 23%. Take the revision seriously. Supply pressure at 2.72 said institutions absorbed nearly three coins for every one mined, which is the structural argument for a floor that holds through a 5.24% 10-year. At 2.105 that argument still works and works less well. The September absorption story ran roughly a fifth too large, and this publication cited the larger number for two weeks. The bulls read the Fed correctly and the transmission wrongly. October hike odds at 17% did not lower the 10-year, which closed Friday five basis points higher, and a path that eases the near term while long yields rise leaves the capital-pull channel open in the direction that costs Bitcoin. The bears read the thinness correctly and the cause wrongly. Exchange balances fell 28,156 coins over the same thirty days the flow decayed, so coins left exchanges while money stopped arriving, which describes a market with fewer sellers rather than fewer buyers. Monday's 8-K is the next confirming point. A purchase funded from the common ATM again makes the September 28 reopening a policy rather than a one-week expedient, and a filing with no STRC repurchase would leave the fifty-nine-cent discount standing on market demand for the first time since May. ![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-04/daily-synthesis-75f4fb48.png) At cp 0.135, Bitcoin sits in the lower third of its power-law band, far closer to the $64.9K floor than the $154.6K median. *Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, network state, Fear and Greed composite, tripwires, corporate holdings), Farside Investors, Federal Reserve H.15, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791195916350000&sa=E, Newsquawk, and reporting from Bitcoin News Digest, Bloomberg, The Crypto Times and UseTheBitcoin. Nothing here is investment advice.* --- Source: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-10-04/ Feed: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/rss.xml Numbers: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-10-04/numbers.json Dashboard: https://dashboard.bitcoinhashpoint.com/static/dashboard.html