# The Hashpoint for October 6, 2026

*October 6, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> Strategy spends six dollars on paper per coin dollar

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 6, 2026*

Strategy filed its weekly 8-K Monday and put a number on the accumulation throttle that this publication has argued about since September 9. The company bought 334 Bitcoin for $28.7 million at an average of $85,838.80, and in the same seven days it spent $176.3 million repurchasing 1.77 million shares of its own STRC preferred. That is $6.14 into the paper for every $1.00 into the coin, after $1.06 to $1.00 in the September 28 filing and $2.30 to $1.00 on September 21. STRC closed Monday at $99.48, fifty-two cents under its $100 par and the narrowest discount of this series. Bitcoin trades at $85,950, which is 1.32 times the power-law floor of $65,047 and 0.55 times the median of $154,874. The repair is working. The coin takes what the repair leaves.

## STRC and Strategy

Read the filing as a cash-flow statement rather than a purchase announcement. Strategy funded the $28.7 million of coins from $15.7 million of at-the-market Class A sales, 92,894 shares in all, $13.0 million of USD Cash, and $22.2 million of interest earned on short-term investments. The STRC repurchase ran larger than all of that combined, with $102.6 million of it covering 1,033,168 shares across September 28 to 30. A further $142.5 million of USD Reserve went to preferred dividends and debt interest, leaving $547.2 million of the $2.0 billion repurchase authorization.

Holdings now read 848,000 coins at an aggregate cost near $63.97 billion, or $75,440.70 each, up $3.70 on the week. The position carries $72.89 billion at this morning's print and sits $10,509 a coin above cost. The preferred itself sits at session 98 below par and 144 calendar days from the last close at or above it on May 14, yielding 12.063% on the $12.00 rate Strategy declared July 1, with the issuance channel shut. The fifty-cent payment goes ex-dividend October 15 and pays October 31.

The lag held again on Monday's tape. MSTR gained 2.76% to $164.43 while the preferred added seven cents, a ratio near 39 to 1 that repeats September 21 and September 24. Hashpoint's own analysis has held since September 9 that the monthly repricing mechanism strands the largest corporate Bitcoin buyer in impaired paper through moves its coupon cannot answer. November 1 is the next date that rate changes.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-06/strc-0dd5e1d7.png)

STRC closed at $99.48 on October 5, fifty-two cents under par and the narrowest discount of the series.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-06/strategy-purchases-4b0bb0b7.png)

Strategy bought 334 BTC for $28.7M while spending $176.3M on STRC, a ratio of $6.14 to $1.00.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

The ETF bid turned negative for the first time in three sessions. Farside puts Monday October 5 at a net $89.8 million of redemptions, with ARKB giving back $85.2 million, Fidelity's FBTC $74.5 million, and BlackRock's IBIT taking $69.9 million as the only fund creating shares. That follows $189.9 million on October 2, $102.7 million on October 1, and negative $148.7 million on September 30. Cumulative net flow reads $57.767 billion. The week to October 2 totalled $241.1 million, a third consecutive weekly inflow, against roughly $1.2 billion for the year so far.

Supply pressure rose anyway, and the reason matters more than the direction. The dashboard reads 2.0685 against 1.9166 yesterday, with institutional thirty-day buying at 27,925 coins over issuance of 13,500. The flow series inside the box ends October 2, so that increase absorbs Farside's sixfold restatement of October 2 rather than any new purchase. Exchange balances sit at 2,675,688 coins after a thirty-day decline of 25,807, and tripwire six stays the only one of six on watch.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-06/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-5cf1eaaf.png)

Spot ETFs shed $89.8M on October 5, with IBIT the only creation at $69.9M.

## Macro and yields

The screw tightened without the headline moving. The 10-year eased four basis points to 5.27% after Monday printed 5.31%, its highest since 2002, and the 30-year slipped two to 5.65%. The 10-year real yield rose two basis points to 2.97%, a fresh high for this stretch, which puts the implied breakeven at 2.30% and says the nominal relief came out of inflation expectations rather than out of the term premium. ISM Services prices paid printed 74 on Monday, the highest since July 2022. The dollar index held 102.011, within a fraction of its strongest level since April 2025.

Both sentiment needles rose and the gap widened. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791368802621000&sa=E, reads 70 in Greed on October 5 after 65 a day earlier. The Hashpoint structural composite reads 39 in Fear on October 4 data after 36. The spread stands at 31 points on day 47 of the divergence, with band position at the nineteenth percentile of its own history doing most of the work on the structural side. Bowman speaks at 9:45 this morning and the September FOMC minutes arrive Wednesday at 2:00.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-06/macro-context-with-btc-price-cea25cd1.png)

The 10-year eased to 5.27% while the real yield rose to 2.97%, a fresh high for the stretch.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-06/fear-and-greed-6603cab2.png)

Market mood rose to 70 against a structural composite of 39, widening the gap to 31 points on day 47.

## Power law and network

One year ago today Bitcoin printed $126,080. Price sits 31.9% under that mark this morning, and the three prior recoveries from a cycle peak took 28, 36 and 38 months. Inside the envelope the position looks ordinary rather than damaged: 1.321 times the floor on spot and 1.318 on Monday's close, 0.555 and 0.554 times the median, cycle position 0.1417, MVRV 1.597 against a last-cycle peak of 2.78.

The hashrate series revised hard the other way. The dashboard reads 868.74 exahash per second on the October 4 observation, down 12.01% over thirty days, against 935.57 and up 9.58% yesterday. Blocks still arrive faster than the ten-minute target at 9 minutes 55 seconds, which argues the measured decline overstates what the chain actually lost. Difficulty holds 132.72 trillion and the October 17 retarget estimates 0.78% higher, to 133.75 trillion. Block 970,155 puts cycle four at 62.0%, with about 79,900 blocks to the April 2028 halving.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-06/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-9b5f4303.png)

Bitcoin at $85,950 sits 1.32x the power-law floor of $65,047 and 0.55x the median of $154,874.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-06/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-c7afb305.png)

Hashrate revised to 869 EH/s on October 4 data, down 12% over thirty days, while blocks run at 9m55s.

## The Bull View

- The Block: Strategy bought 334 coins for $28.7 million and took holdings to a record 848,000

- Cointelegraph: spot ETFs drew $241.1 million last week, a third straight weekly inflow, lifting the cumulative total to $57.8 billion

- CFTC: an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on crypto asset transactions opened a 60-day comment window, with Chairman Selig calling it a step toward keeping America "the crypto capital of the world"

- The Market Periodical: Strategy estimated a $20.91 billion third-quarter gain on digital assets

- Crypto.com: the 100-day moving average crossed above the 200-day, a cross that averaged a 24.9% three-month gain across 12 prior occurrences

- 24/7 Wall St.: the 31.9% drawdown runs far shallower than past declines of 77% to 85%

- Blockchain.news: Citi set a $240 target on MSTR against a $229.87 consensus

The bull case leans on regulatory momentum and a treasury buyer that keeps adding at the margin, arguing the 2026 drawdown stayed shallow by every historical measure.

## The Bear View

- KuCoin, citing Farside: spot ETFs shed $89.8 million on October 5, with ARKB alone giving back $85.2 million

- Rio Times: the 10-year reached 5.31%, the highest since 2002, with ISM Services prices paid at 74

- Trading Economics: the 10-year real yield rose to 2.97%, a fresh high for the stretch

- Bitcoin.com News: price touched $86,969 and fell to $85,200 inside the session, liquidating $109 million

- 24/7 Wall St.: reclaiming $126,080 requires a 46% climb, and no prior recovery took under 28 months

- TokenPost: listed miners shed 75 exahash in the first half of 2026, roughly $1.5 billion of rigs, against $1.1 billion of impairments across 12 companies

- The Crypto Times: $433 million of long positions liquidated on the rejection near $87,000

The bear case leans on the real rate and the ceiling, arguing a market that cannot clear $87,000 on three attempts has no answer for a 2.97% real yield.

## The Hashpoint read

The spring holds its tension and Monday's filing shows what the issuer spends to keep its own paper intact. Six dollars of repair for every dollar of Bitcoin is the widest ratio this series has recorded, and it bought the narrowest discount this series has recorded. Both facts belong to the same transaction.

That cuts against the publication as much as for it. One hundred forty-four days of a shut issuance channel have not stopped Strategy from buying, so the funding constraint the capital-pull argument needs has not bound the way we said it would. What the filing does establish is the opportunity cost. The company put $176.3 million where $176.3 million of coins would otherwise have gone, at a moment when the preferred needed fifty-two cents to clear par.

The bulls read the institution correctly and the rate wrongly. A record 848,000 coins and a third inflow week are real, and both arrived while the real yield set a fresh high and the ETF bid turned negative on the same tape. The bears read the rate correctly and the structure wrongly. A 46% climb is arithmetic, not evidence, and at 1.32 times the floor against 0.55 times the median the envelope says nothing about overextension in either direction.

Two dates settle this. October 15 takes STRC through its ex-dividend at a fifty-two cent discount, and a slide back past a dollar afterward dates the repair to the payment rather than to the buyback. November 1 resets the coupon, and that is the only date it can answer a September that added roughly half a point to the long end.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-06/daily-synthesis-7744323b.png)

At cycle position 0.145, Bitcoin sits in the lower third of its power-law band, far nearer the $65,047 floor than the $154,874 median.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, network state, Fear and Greed composite, tripwires, corporate holdings, synthesis), Strategy's October 5 8-K, Farside Investors, Trading Economics, CoinGecko, CoinWarz, StockAnalysis, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791368802622000&sa=E, and reporting from The Block, Cointelegraph, KuCoin, Bitcoin.com News, TokenPost, The Crypto Times, Rio Times, Crypto.com, Blockchain.news, The Market Periodical, 24/7 Wall St. and the CFTC. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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