# The Hashpoint for October 7, 2026

*October 7, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> Strategy sold 5,553 coins to defend its own paper

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 7, 2026*

Strategy sold 5,553 Bitcoin in the third quarter. It bought 7,218 over the same three months, leaving a net gain of 1,666 coins, or two tenths of one percent, and it spent roughly $1.38 billion repurchasing its own STRC preferred across that quarter. Yesterday's edition put the weekly ratio at $6.14 of paper repair for every dollar of coin. The quarter says that week was not an exception. Bitcoin trades at $83,735 this morning, down 2.11% from Tuesday's close of $85,539.77, which puts it 1.286 times the power-law floor of $65,105 and 0.540 times the median of $155,013. STRC closed at $99.47, fifty-three cents under par, on session 99 below it.

## STRC and Strategy

Read the quarter as a capital allocation decision rather than an accumulation report. The company moved 7,218 coins in and 5,553 out, ending September with 1,666 more than it started July with, and put about $1.38 billion into retiring preferred shares the market still prices below their $100 face value. The largest corporate holder of Bitcoin spent a quarter nearly flat on the asset while it defended the instrument that funds the asset.

No new 8-K arrived in the last 24 hours, so the October 5 filing stands: 334 coins for $28.67 million at an average of $85,838.80 across September 28 to October 4, against $176.3 million retiring about 1.77 million STRC shares. Holdings read 848,000 coins at $63.97 billion aggregate, or $75,440.70 each. The position carries $70.97 billion this morning and sits $8,294 a coin above cost, against $10,509 yesterday, so two sessions took roughly $1.9 billion off that cushion. The authorization has $547.2 million left of its $2.0 billion.

The preferred yields 12.064% on the $12.00 rate Strategy declared July 1, with the issuance channel shut and zero days above par across both the last 7 and the last 30 sessions. One hundred forty-five calendar days separate this close from the May 14 close at or above par, and the fifty-cent payment goes ex-dividend October 15.

Michael Saylor gave the design its clearest public defense yesterday, putting thirty-day volatility at 39% for Bitcoin, 94% for MSTR and 9% for STRC, below every Magnificent Seven name. That 9% figure is the point of the instrument and also the mechanism this publication has questioned since September 9. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that a monthly repricing schedule buys price stability by stranding the issuer in impaired paper through moves its coupon cannot answer. The October 28 special meeting asks common holders to approve daily dividend accrual and leaves that monthly reset alone. November 1 is the next date the rate changes.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-07/strc-aef1c72b.png)

STRC closed at $99.47 on October 6, fifty-three cents under par on session 99 below it.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-07/strategy-purchases-3d91574d.png)

Strategy netted 1,666 BTC in the third quarter, 7,218 bought against 5,553 sold, alongside $1.38B of STRC repurchases.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

The flow reversed and price fell through it. Farside puts Tuesday October 6 at a net $118.8 million of creations, with BlackRock's IBIT taking $122.0 million and Morgan Stanley's MSBT $7.8 million, while FBTC, ARKB, BITB and GBTC stood still and a residual line gave back $11.0 million. That follows Monday's $89.8 million of redemptions, October 2 at $189.9 million and October 1 at $102.7 million. Cumulative net flow reads $57.886 billion. The dashboard logged Tuesday at $7.8 million, the MSBT line alone, so Farside is the figure of record until the box restates.

Supply pressure fell anyway, to 2.027 from 2.0685 yesterday, with institutional thirty-day buying at 27,362 coins over issuance of 13,500. Exchange balances sit at 2,674,315 coins after a thirty-day decline of 26,438 and a 365-day decline of 58,211, putting the annual drain ratio at 0.354. Tripwire six stays the only one of six on watch, and none of the six is lit.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-07/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-0a5a6c45.png)

Spot ETFs took $118.8M on October 6, with IBIT carrying $122.0M of it.

## Macro and yields

The long end gave nothing back. The 10-year rose three basis points to 5.307%, the 30-year four to 5.69%, and the 2-year one to 4.801%, ahead of a $39 billion 10-year auction at 1:00 this afternoon and the September FOMC minutes at 2:00. CME FedWatch puts a hold at the October 27 to 28 meeting at 78%. The 10-year real yield eased five basis points to 2.91%, and Brent crude reached $101.39 after Iran escalated attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which explains a nominal curve rising while the real yield slipped.

Both needles moved apart again. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791456100445000&sa=E, reads 73 in Greed on October 6 after 70 a day earlier. The Hashpoint structural composite reads 38 in Fear on October 5 data after 39. The spread stands at 35 points on day 48 of the divergence, four wider than yesterday, with band position at the eighteenth percentile of its own history carrying most of the structural weight.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-07/macro-context-with-btc-price-1ab1ee59.png)

The 10-year rose to 5.307% while the real yield eased to 2.91% and Brent reached $101.39.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-07/fear-and-greed-10e23855.png)

Market mood rose to 73 against a structural composite of 38, widening the gap to 35 points on day 48.

## Power law and network

Price lost ground inside the envelope without leaving its zone. The floor multiple reads 1.286 on spot against 1.321 yesterday, the median multiple 0.540 against 0.555, and cycle position 0.128 live or 0.139 on Tuesday's close. MVRV reads 1.591 against a last-cycle peak of 2.78, and realized cap stands at $1.0802 trillion, under the October 2025 high of $1.1149 trillion.

The hashrate series swung a third time in three mornings. The dashboard reads 946.47 exahash per second on the October 5 observation, up 3.62% over thirty days, against 868.74 and down 12.01% yesterday. Blocks arrive at 9 minutes 21 seconds against the ten-minute target, so the chain runs faster than scheduled whatever the estimator prints. Difficulty holds 132.72 trillion and 1,472 blocks remain to the retarget at height 971,712, roughly October 16, with the 24-hour pace implying an adjustment near 7% higher. Block 970,240 puts cycle four at 62.0%.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-07/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-708e0512.png)

Bitcoin at $83,735 sits 1.286x the power-law floor of $65,105 and 0.540x the median of $155,013.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-07/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-b2b03a11.png)

Hashrate revised to 946 EH/s on October 5 data while blocks run at 9m21s against a ten-minute target.

## The Bull View

- CoinJournal, citing Farside: spot ETFs took $118.8 million on October 6, reversing Monday's $89.8 million of redemptions

- Cointelegraph, citing CryptoQuant: 23,137 coins left Binance in the week to September 27, the largest weekly outflow in over three years, with nearly 40,000 gone since September 20

- Cointelegraph: whale thirty-day stablecoin inflows rose 40% from $21.7 billion to $30.5 billion between mid-August and the end of September

- Cryptobriefing: the SEC approved six 3x products on October 2, two of them on Bitcoin and Ether, pending an effective S-1

- TradingKey: Strategy estimated a $20.91 billion third-quarter digital-asset gain on a $70.82 billion carrying value

- Crowdfund Insider: Saylor put STRC's thirty-day volatility at 9%, under every Magnificent Seven name

- Decrypt: October opened with price surging to $86,000

The bull case leans on coins leaving exchanges and dollars waiting beside them, arguing that this positioning resembles June 2023 and that the fund bid came back inside a single session.

## The Bear View

- The Crypto Times: $546.89 million liquidated across crypto, 88% of it long positions, with $142.87 million in Bitcoin, after buyers failed at $87,000 for the second time since late September

- Bitcoin Foundation: price fell from about $86,600 Tuesday to about $83,840 early Wednesday as Brent reached $101.39 on Hormuz

- GuruFocus: the 10-year rose to 5.307% and the 30-year to 5.69% ahead of a $39 billion auction

- KuCoin: Strategy sold 5,553 coins in the third quarter against 7,218 bought, netting 1,666

- KuCoin: the company put more than six times its usual weekly coin budget into preferred repurchases, $176.3 million against $28.7 million

- CoinJournal: $80,000 to $82,000 is the support that has to hold, with December tightening still priced

- Fortune: price sits 30.8% below its level of a year ago

The bear case leans on borrowed money and the rate, arguing that a market closing half a billion dollars of longs on a three basis point move has no cushion under it.

## The Hashpoint read

The spring lost tension this morning and the quarter shows where the energy went. Price at 1.286 times the floor and 0.540 times the median sits lower in the band than it did yesterday, and still nowhere near either edge.

The quarterly ledger is the strongest evidence the throttle argument has produced in a month of looking for it. A weekly ratio can be timing. Selling 5,553 coins while spending $1.38 billion on paper is policy. The company chose, across three months, to arrive at September 30 holding 1,666 more coins than it started with and a preferred that still trades under par. That is opportunity cost at quarter scale, in the issuer's own numbers.

The bulls read the supply correctly and the crowding wrongly. Forty thousand coins off Binance and $30.5 billion of whale stablecoins are real positioning, and both sat there while $479 million of longs went out on a three basis point move in the 10-year. The bears read the rate correctly and the band wrongly. A 30.8% drawdown and a failed $87,000 test describe price action rather than structure, and at 1.286 times the floor the envelope puts this market nearer its support than anything resembling excess.

Two dates settle the next move. The FOMC minutes land at 2:00 this afternoon against a 78% hold, and a hawkish read with the real yield near 2.9% gives the cleanest version of the capital-pull channel this series has recorded. November 1 resets the STRC coupon, the only date the instrument can answer a quarter that added roughly half a point to the long end.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-07/daily-synthesis-8cc77e16.png)

At cycle position 0.139, Bitcoin sits in the lower third of its power-law band, far nearer the $65,105 floor than the $155,013 median.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, network state, Fear and Greed composite, tripwires, corporate holdings, synthesis), Strategy's October 5 8-K and October 28 proxy, Farside Investors, Trading Economics, GuruFocus, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791456100445000&sa=E, and reporting from CoinJournal, Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant, Cryptobriefing, The Crypto Times, KuCoin, TradingKey, Crowdfund Insider, Decrypt, Fortune and the Bitcoin Foundation. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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