# The Hashpoint for October 8, 2026

*October 8, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> Funds pulled 485 million while 24,073 coins left exchanges

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 8, 2026*

Two bids moved in opposite directions on the same session. Spot Bitcoin ETFs gave back $484.9 million on October 7, the largest single-day outflow since June 25, and no fund took a dollar of creations. In that same stretch 24,073 coins left exchanges on net, which Santiment calls the heaviest one-day exodus since March 1. Bitcoin trades at $83,093 this morning, down 0.22% from Tuesday's close of $83,275 and about 1.5% over 24 hours, which puts it 1.275 times the power-law floor of $65,164 and 0.536 times the median of $155,152. STRC closed at $99.43, fifty-seven cents under par, on session 100 below it.

## ETF flows and the exchange drain

Farside puts Wednesday at a net $484.9 million of redemptions: IBIT gave back $207.7 million, FBTC $105.1 million, ARKB $101.7 million, GBTC $39.3 million and BITB $27.6 million. One session erased the month. October's first four days brought $321.6 million of creations, and the month now reads about $163.3 million negative against a cumulative $57.886 billion.

The supply ledger tells the other half. Exchange balances read 2,660,207 coins, down 41,079 over thirty days against a 26,438 reading yesterday, which moved the annual drain ratio to 0.4316 from 0.354 in one update. Supply pressure rose to 2.175 from 2.027, with institutional thirty-day buying at 29,359 coins over issuance of 13,500. Different pools of money reached opposite conclusions inside twenty-four hours.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-08/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-ac50b0ea.png)

Spot ETFs shed $484.9M on October 7, the largest daily outflow since June 25, with every fund redeeming.

## Macro and yields

The minutes did the damage. Yesterday's 2:00 PM release covered the September meeting, where the committee voted unanimously to raise the target range 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since 2023, and most officials saw another increase as likely appropriate before the end of 2026. The 10-year rose five basis points to 5.34% and sits 50 higher on the month. The 30-year added five to 5.72%. The dollar index reads 102.415, its strongest since April 2025, and the 10-year real yield holds 2.91%. CME FedWatch puts an October hike near 18% and December near 78%.

The two needles closed slightly. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791542570360000&sa=E, reads 71 in Greed on October 7 after 73, against a Hashpoint structural composite of 38 in Fear on October 6 data. The spread stands at 33 points on day 49 of the divergence, with band position at the eighteenth percentile of its own history carrying most of the structural weight.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-08/macro-context-with-btc-price-ea792410.png)

The 10-year rose five basis points to 5.34% and the dollar index reached 102.415, its strongest since April 2025.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-08/fear-and-greed-7316ce93.png)

Market mood eased to 71 against a structural composite of 38, narrowing the gap to 33 points on day 49.

## STRC and Strategy

The preferred sat out the session. STRC closed at $99.43, four cents lower, on a day the 10-year added five basis points and the funds sold half a billion dollars. Fifty-seven cents separate that close from par, and the instrument has spent 100 consecutive sessions below it, 146 calendar days from the May 14 close at or above par. The yield reads 12.069% on the $12.00 rate Strategy declared July 1, with the issuance channel shut and zero days above par across both the last 7 and the last 30 sessions.

No new 8-K arrived in 24 hours, so the October 5 filing stands: 334 coins for $28.67 million at an average of $85,838.80, against $176.3 million retiring about 1.77 million STRC shares. Holdings read 848,000 coins at $75,440.70 each. The position carries $70.46 billion this morning and sits $7,652 a coin above cost, against $8,294 yesterday, so one session took $540 million off that cushion.

Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing schedule is the defect, and a four-cent move across a session that repriced the entire long end is that lag working as designed.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-08/strc-0cb07041.png)

STRC closed at $99.43 on October 7, fifty-seven cents under par, on session 100 below it.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-08/strategy-purchases-e06d935b.png)

The October 5 filing bought 334 BTC for $28.67M against $176.3M retiring STRC shares.

## Power law and network

Price held its zone while the multiples slipped. The floor multiple reads 1.275 on spot against 1.286 yesterday, the median multiple 0.536 against 0.540, cycle position 0.139 on Tuesday's close and MVRV 1.549 against a last-cycle peak of 2.78. Combined spot and ETF turnover averaged about $6.8 billion a day over the last week, thinner than roughly 90% of sessions since January 2024, so the redemptions landed on a shallow book.

The dashboard now carries a three-day trailing median on hashrate, which settles a question the last three editions chased. The raw series prints 1,177.19 exahash per second on the October 6 observation against a median of 946.47, so the estimator's daily swing reads as noise. Blocks arrive at 9 minutes 15 seconds against the ten-minute target, and 1,316 blocks remain to the retarget at height 971,712, roughly October 16, with the 24-hour pace implying an adjustment near 8% higher on a difficulty of 132.72 trillion.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-08/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-d91a9d66.png)

Bitcoin at $83,093 sits 1.275x the power-law floor of $65,164 and 0.536x the median of $155,152.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-08/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-bd339e15.png)

The new three-day median reads 946 EH/s against a raw print of 1,177, with blocks at 9m15s.

## The Bull View

- KuCoin, citing Santiment: 24,073 coins left exchanges in one session, the largest exodus since March 1, with net exchange supply at a seven-month low

- crypto.news, citing Santiment: exchange balances fell to about 6.5% of total supply

- KuCoin, citing Santiment: addresses holding 10 to 10,000 coins added 86,702 over three weeks

- SpinDepth, citing Cointelegraph: spot funds took $6.34 billion in the third quarter against roughly $5 billion of second-quarter outflows

- UseTheBitcoin: price holds above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $72,000, and October hike odds sit near 18%

The bull case leans on the coins rather than the wrappers: storage demand ran at a seven-month high in the same session the funds sold.

## The Bear View

- FXStreet, citing Farside: spot funds shed $484.9 million on October 7, the largest daily outflow since June 25

- crypto.news: IBIT gave back $207.7 million, FBTC $105.1 million and ARKB $101.7 million, with no fund taking creations

- Coin-Turk: Ether funds extended a seven-session outflow streak to about $569 million

- BlockchainReporter: the 10-year sits above 5.3%, its highest since 2002, with the 30-year at multi-decade highs

- Yahoo Finance, citing CoinGlass: $403.58 million of long positions closed inside one hour on October 6, 97% of that hour's total

The bear case leans on the rate and the thin book: a market this illiquid cannot absorb half a billion dollars of fund selling while the dollar prints a seventeen-month high.

## The Hashpoint read

The spring took a direct hit and gave up almost nothing. Price at 1.275 times the floor and 0.536 times the median sits a touch lower in the band than yesterday, and still far from either edge, after one session delivered the hawkish minutes, the largest fund outflow since June and the strongest dollar since April 2025. The capital-pull channel fired cleanly, with every input this publication watches moving the wrong way together, and price fell 1.5%. Half a billion dollars of redemptions on a book thinner than 90% of sessions since January 2024 should have moved more, and 24,073 coins walking off exchanges stood in the way.

The bulls read the supply correctly and the timeline wrongly. Storage demand at a seven-month high absorbs coins, and it does not reprice a coupon or lower a real yield of 2.91%. The bears read the rate correctly and the floor wrongly. A 10-year at its highest since 2002 is the cleanest headwind this series has recorded, and at 1.275 times the floor the envelope puts this market in the lower eighth of its own historical range.

STRC keeps the score. Four cents of movement across a session that repriced the long end, the dollar and the fund complex says the monthly reset leaves the largest institutional bid deaf to its own cost of capital. October 15 takes the preferred through its ex-dividend at a fifty-seven-cent discount, and a slide past a dollar afterward dates the repair to the payment rather than to the $176.3 million. November 1 resets the coupon against a quarter that added half a point to the long end.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-08/daily-synthesis-535eea64.png)

At cycle position 0.139, Bitcoin sits in the lower third of its power-law band, far nearer the $65,164 floor than the $155,152 median.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, network state, Fear and Greed composite, corporate holdings, synthesis), Strategy's October 5 8-K, Farside Investors, Trading Economics, the September FOMC minutes, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791542570360000&sa=E, and reporting from crypto.news, FXStreet, KuCoin, Santiment, Glassnode, SpinDepth, Yahoo Finance, BlockchainReporter and UseTheBitcoin. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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