# The Hashpoint for October 9, 2026

*October 9, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> STRC prints best close in 101 sessions below par

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 9, 2026*

Strategy's variable-rate preferred closed at $99.45 on Thursday, the strongest close of the 101 sessions it has now spent under its $100 par, and it reached that level on the two worst days the Bitcoin fund complex has had since June. Spot Bitcoin ETFs gave back $244.1 million Thursday after $484.9 million Wednesday, a two-session total of $729.0 million. Bitcoin touched $80,450 at 1:20 PM Eastern and reads $82,620 this morning, 1.14% above Thursday's close of $81,692.79 and about 5% lower on the week. That sits 1.267 times the power-law floor of $65,222 and 0.532 times the median of $155,291. STRC's discount to par measures fifty-five cents, the narrowest of the run.

## STRC and Strategy

Two cents separated Thursday's close from Wednesday's $99.43, and those two cents moved opposite every other Bitcoin-linked number on the tape. The instrument has spent 101 consecutive sessions below par, 147 calendar days from the May 14 close at or above it. The yield reads 12.066% on the $12.00 annual rate Strategy declared July 1, and the at-the-market issuance channel stays shut.

No 8-K arrived in the last 24 hours, so the October 5 filing still governs: 334 coins for $28.67 million at an average of $85,838.80, against roughly $176.3 million retiring about 1.77 million STRC shares. Holdings read 848,000 coins at a stated average of $75,440.70. The position carries $70.06 billion this morning and sits $7,179 a coin above cost, against $7,652 yesterday.

Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing schedule is the defect in this instrument. A two-cent gain across a session that printed a 5.618% high yield at the thirty-year auction and pulled $244 million out of the funds is that schedule doing what the design permits. The November 1 switch to daily dividends leaves the monthly rate reset untouched.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-09/strc-c855bab0.png)

STRC closed at $99.45 on October 8, fifty-five cents under par and the best close of its 101-session run below it.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-09/strategy-purchases-c69c4d48.png)

The October 5 filing put $28.67M into 334 coins against $176.3M retiring STRC shares.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

Thursday's tape ran one direction. FBTC gave back $197.1 million, ARKB $20.3 million, Bitwise $17.7 million, Grayscale $8.2 million and IBIT $5.5 million, and Franklin's EZBC took the only creation at $4.7 million. October now reads $407.4 million negative on a cumulative $57.157 billion since January 2024.

The supply side reversed too, which matters more than the headline. Exchange balances read 2,663,366 coins on the October 7 observation, up 3,159 from the prior update, and the annual drain ratio fell to 0.384 from 0.4316. Supply pressure dropped to 1.815 from 2.175, with institutional thirty-day buying at 24,505 coins against issuance of 13,500, a figure that read 29,359 a day earlier. Yesterday's edition found two bids moving in opposite directions. Today both point down.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-09/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-366655fd.png)

Spot funds shed $244.1M on October 8 after $484.9M on October 7, a two-session total of $729.0M.

## Macro and yields

The long end gave something back and risk fell anyway. The ten-year touched about 5.35% in the European morning, a twenty-four-year high, then ended near 5.23% for a six basis point decline, and it reads 5.26% this morning. The thirty-year held above 5.70%, and the $22 billion auction priced at a 5.618% high yield. The ten-year real yield eased four basis points to 2.87% while the dollar index slipped 0.13% to near 102.1. Claims printed 197,000 against a 200,000 consensus, and traders price roughly 80% odds of a hike by December.

Other things pulled the market lower. Crude ran 2.6% higher to $92.80 on Pentagon reporting about renewed Iran strikes, then fell about $1.50 when Trump said the United States would not attack before the November 3 midterms. A report putting OpenAI's annualized revenue roughly $20 billion below a circulating figure took the Nasdaq 100 down 1.4%, and Bitcoin fell with the chips. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791628426677000&sa=E, reads 64 in Greed on October 8 after 71 the day before and 74 on October 1, against a Hashpoint structural composite of 36 in Fear. That gap measures 28 points now, against 33 yesterday.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-09/macro-context-with-btc-price-dd79d968.png)

The ten-year reads 5.26% after touching 5.35% Thursday, with the dollar index near 102.1.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-09/fear-and-greed-690dd13c.png)

Market mood fell to 64 against a structural composite of 36, narrowing the gap to 28 points.

## Power law and network

Price held its zone through the drawdown. The floor multiple reads 1.267 on spot against 1.275 yesterday, the median multiple 0.532 against 0.536, and MVRV 1.519 against a last-cycle peak of 2.78. None of the dashboard's six structural tripwires reads lit, and the one on watch wants supply pressure above 3 against this morning's 1.82. The network ran steady while the market did not: hashrate holds 1,024.56 exahash per second on the October 7 observation, down 1.49% over thirty days, with the three-day median at the same figure. Blocks arrive at 9 minutes 36 seconds, 1,104 remain to the retarget at height 971,712, and the pace implies an adjustment near 4.22% higher to 138.32 trillion on October 16.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-09/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-a0c41441.png)

Bitcoin at $82,620 sits 1.267x the power-law floor of $65,222 and 0.532x the median of $155,291.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-09/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-3d7fdcc2.png)

Hashrate holds 1,025 EH/s with blocks at 9m36s and a 4.22% retarget due October 16.

## The Bull View

- The Block, citing TD Cowen: the year-end Bitcoin forecast moved to about $109,000 from $97,500, with $280,000 held for 2029

- The Block, citing JPMorgan: roughly $50 billion flowed into digital assets this year, an annualized $66 billion, with public-company treasuries the main buyers

- crypto.news, citing Santiment: a net 24,073 coins left exchanges on October 5, the heaviest single day in seven months, with exchange supply near 6.5% of the total

- CoinGape: price bounced off its fifty-day moving average after trading below $80,500 and recovered past $82,500

- Vantage Markets: claims held at 197,000 for a fourth week near a fifty-seven-year low

The bull case leans on the money that does not trade daily: treasury buyers and self-custody absorbed coins through a week in which the funds sold.

## The Bear View

- Farside Investors: the funds shed $244.1 million Thursday after $484.9 million Wednesday, with one creation of $4.7 million across the whole complex

- CoinDesk: Wednesday's outflow ran about 2.1 standard deviations below a ninety-day average of roughly $92 million of daily inflows

- CoinGape, citing CoinGlass: more than $1 billion of positions closed out across 181,000 traders in twenty-four hours, almost $935 million of it long

- crypto.news, citing Glassnode: combined spot and fund volume near $6.8 billion a day sits under nine of every ten sessions since January 2024

- CoinGape, citing Lookonchain: a MARA-linked wallet sent 996 coins, about $81.13 million, to Galaxy Digital

The bear case leans on who is left to sell. A book this thin cleared a billion dollars of margin in a day while a miner moved inventory out the door.

## The Hashpoint read

The spring absorbed a second direct hit and lost eight thousandths of its floor multiple. Price at 1.267 times the floor and 0.532 times the median sits a shade below yesterday after two sessions took $729 million out of the funds and printed $80,450. That describes a market with little left to shake out above the floor and a long way to the median.

The bulls read the holders correctly and the clock wrongly. Exchange supply near 6.5% of the total tells you who owns the coins, and that ownership does not reset a coupon or move a real yield of 2.87%. The bears read the flow correctly and the structure wrongly. Two sessions of fund selling against a $6.8 billion daily book is the cleanest demand shock this series has logged, and it moved the floor multiple eight thousandths.

STRC keeps the score, and this week it stopped keeping score at all. The preferred rose two cents while the long end printed a twenty-four-year high and the funds sold three quarters of a billion dollars. A $176.3 million corporate buyback explains that close; demand for the paper does not. The monthly reset leaves Strategy's funding cost deaf to its own market in both directions, and that deafness now looks permanent rather than lagged. October 15 takes the preferred through its ex-dividend at a fifty-five-cent discount, and a slide past a dollar afterward dates this repair to the payment. Monday's filing says which pocket Strategy reached into, and another $176 million to the preferred against $28 million into coins confirms the throttle at the ratio its own 8-K reported.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-09/daily-synthesis-bfaf45cd.png)

At cycle position 0.114, Bitcoin sits in the lower quarter of its power-law band, far nearer the $65,222 floor than the $155,291 median.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, network state, tripwires, Fear and Greed composite, synthesis), Strategy's October 5 8-K, Farside Investors, the Federal Reserve H.15 release, Trading Economics, CoinWarz, MarketChameleon, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791628426677000&sa=E, and reporting from CoinDesk, The Block, crypto.news, CoinGape, Babypips, Glassnode, Santiment and Vantage Markets. Nothing here is investment advice.*

---

Source: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-10-09/  
Feed: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/rss.xml  
Numbers: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-10-09/numbers.json  
Dashboard: https://dashboard.bitcoinhashpoint.com/static/dashboard.html