# The Hashpoint for October 20, 2026

*October 20, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> Strategy Puts $8.74 Into STRC for Every Bitcoin Dollar

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 20, 2026*

Strategy put $8.74 into its own preferred stock for every $1.00 it put into Bitcoin last week. Monday's filing shows $193.1 million spent retiring 1,938,780 STRC shares against $22.1 million for 267 coins at $82,900, the widest split this publication has recorded; the September 21 filing ran $2.30 to $1.00 and the September 28 filing $1.06. On the same Monday the spot funds took in $526.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone creating $665.2 million. Bitcoin traded at $81,383 on Coinbase this morning, down 0.56% from Monday's $81,838 close, 1.236 times the power-law floor of $65,869 and 0.519 times the median of $156,830.

## STRC and Strategy

The preferred closed Monday at $98.62, up $0.90 from Friday's $97.72, and the discount narrowed to $1.38. The box counts 108 sessions below par and 158 calendar days since the last close at or above $100 on May 14. Effective yield runs 12.17% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box reads issuance as closed.

Cash paid for the entire $193.1 million. Strategy sold 140,872 common shares for $22.0 million and spent that on the coins. The board lifted the preferred repurchase authorization to $3.0 billion from $2.0 billion, with $1.16 billion left as of October 18. USD Cash fell to $447.3 million from $640.5 million a week earlier, and the USD Reserve stands at $4.83 billion after $45.5 million of preferred dividends. At last week's pace, the cash covers a little over two more weeks of STRC purchases.

The repurchase week also contained Friday's slide from $99.53 to $97.72 on the MSCI decision. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing schedule leaves the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time rate would. The filing now prices that impairment: of $215.2 million deployed, 10.3% reached the coin.

Holdings stand at 848,517 coins at a stated $75,446, $64.02 billion in cost. The common rose 2.7% to $140.53 in Monday trading, by Invezz's count. The next fifty-cent STRC payment falls October 31.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-20/strc-b92a8273.png)

STRC closed at $98.62, $1.38 under par, session 108 below $100.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-20/strategy-purchases-b94c37ce.png)

Strategy bought 267 coins for $22.1 million and retired $193.1 million of STRC in the same week.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

Monday answered the flow question in one print. Farside records $526.7 million of net creations, the largest session since September 22's $714.7 million. IBIT took $665.2 million, FBTC redeemed $83.6 million, GBTC redeemed $54.9 million, and every other fund sat flat. Cumulative net flow reached $57.476 billion.

The box's supply pressure index reads 1.81, up from 1.79 on a lower price, because its window still ends at Friday's flows. Tomorrow's run adds Monday. On that arithmetic, the thirty-day net climbs to about $2.25 billion, and Thursday's removal of September 21's $998.95 million cuts it to about $1.25 billion. One IBIT day replaced a little over half of the autumn's largest session.

Exchange balances read 2,679,759 coins on October 18, down 39,022 over thirty days.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-20/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-12d61a54.png)

The funds created $526.7 million on October 19, IBIT $665.2 million of it, the largest day since September 22.

## Macro and yields

The ten-year closed Monday at 5.15% on the FRED series, up six basis points from Friday's 5.09%, and Trading Economics puts it near 5.13% this morning. The two-year reads 4.79% and the thirty-year 5.46%. The real yield rose four basis points to 2.78%. The dollar index finished Monday at 101.946, up 0.11%, and slipped below 101.80 early Tuesday, per FXStreet.

September housing starts and building permits print at 8:30 this morning, and pending home sales at 10:00. The Fed stays in blackout until the October 27 to 28 meeting, where Trading Economics prices an 83% chance of no change and a 94% chance of a December hike.

The crowd warmed while the structure cooled. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792578429935000&sa=E, rose to 59 in Greed from 53. The Hashpoint structural composite slipped to 33 in Fear from 36, so the gap widened to 26 points from 17.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-20/macro-context-with-btc-price-bdf132df.png)

The ten-year rose to 5.15% Monday while the dollar index added 0.11% to 101.946.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-20/fear-and-greed-8f51bf83.png)

Market mood rose to 59 in Greed while the structural composite fell to 33 in Fear, a 26-point gap.

## Power law and network

Monday closed at $81,838, down 0.21%, the fourth straight close above $80,000. The coin sits 2.23% lower on the week by crypto.news' ticker. MVRV reads 1.52. CoinWarz holds difficulty at 140.58 trillion and now estimates a 5.77% rise to 148.69 trillion on October 29, up from Monday's 4.96% estimate, with blocks arriving every 9 minutes 27 seconds. The box reads hashrate at 1,066 exahash per second, up 29.0% over thirty days, and counts 77,785 blocks to the halving, cycle four 62.96% complete.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-20/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-5f6eac43.png)

Bitcoin trades at $81,383, 1.236 times the $65,869 floor and 0.519 times the $156,830 median.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-20/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-ffc428f6.png)

CoinWarz estimates difficulty rises 5.77% to 148.69 trillion on October 29.

## The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's own data. If STRC keeps the last ten sessions' pace of minus 8.6 cents a session, it never reaches par, and the box's reading of the escalator rule puts the next rate at 12.25%, up from 12.00% (as of the October 19 close).

The pace halved overnight from minus 16.9 cents because Monday's 90-cent gain entered the window. For the if-clause to fail, the preferred needs to average a 13.8-cent gain across the next ten sessions. Monday supplied that in one day while the ten-year rose six basis points, which points at the buyback and not the curve as the force on the price. The yield shock agrees: the ninety-day link between the ten-year and Bitcoin reads weak, an r-squared of 0.045 across 61 sessions. The 12.25% reflects the box's reading of the rule, not a company statement.

| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| STRC to par | Pace holds at -$0.086 a session | Never reaches par; rule |  |
| reads 12.25% | Was -$0.169 on $97.72 |  |  |
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | 700 BTC a day, 1.56x issuance, 143 |  |
| days to 100,000 | Was 699, 1.55x; Monday not yet in |  |  |
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC -2.48%, r-squared 0.045, n 61 |  |
| Was -2.57%, 0.047 |  |  |  |
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $81,838 | Floor meets price June 23, 2027, |  |
| 247 days | Was 251 days on $82,007 |  |  |
| Strategy cushion | BTC at $81,838 | 8.5% above cost; halves at $78,644 |  |
| Was 8.7%, $78,728 |  |  |  |
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Family median $103,132, gap -20.7% |  |
| Was $103,066, -20.4%, same models |  |  |  |

![daily experiment panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-20/daily-experiment-839cdb2c.png)

At the last ten sessions' pace of minus 8.6 cents, STRC never reaches par and the box's rule reading puts the next rate at 12.25%.

## The Bull View

- CoinDesk: the spot funds drew $526.6 million Monday, their biggest day in nearly a month, all of it from IBIT's $665.2 million

- Cointelegraph: Strategy added 267 coins and raised its preferred buyback authorization to $3 billion from $2 billion

- CoinDesk: Strategy's common neared a golden cross weeks after Bitcoin's own on September 8

- KuCoin: CryptoQuant sees early signs of a market bottom as selling pressure eases

- Bloomberg: Bitcoin rebounded above $82,000 Monday as oil's retreat lifted risk appetite

- Yahoo Finance: CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju cites $58 billion of ETF inflows and 1.3 million coins in treasury companies against a $10,000 call

The bull case leans on a single fund's return to size and on a balance sheet that keeps buying coins every week.

## The Bear View

- Yahoo Finance: Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone says Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000 if U.S. stocks drop 20%

- crypto.news: Bitcoin slid 1.2% toward $81,730 as Glassnode traced the selling to perpetual futures traders

- CoinDesk: the ether funds lost $103.3 million, a fourth straight day of outflows

- CoinDesk: October flows stay about $90.5 million negative even after Monday

- Cointelegraph: Strategy spent nearly nine times as much on STRC as on Bitcoin

- Trading Economics: the ten-year held near 5.13% with a 94% chance of a December hike priced

The bear case leans on a rate path that keeps rising and on a largest buyer that now spends most of its cash on its own paper.

## The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.236 times its floor and 0.519 times its median, $15,514 above the floor. The spring held its position again, and the two numbers moved in opposite directions: the ten-year rose six basis points and STRC rose 90 cents.

The bulls have the flow right. A $526.7 million day clears the $100 million bar this publication set yesterday by a factor of five. They lean on one fund to carry it, and IBIT's $665.2 million had to cover redemptions at FBTC and GBTC.

The bears have the balance sheet right. An 8.74-to-1 split confirms the accumulation throttle in Strategy's own filing, and $447.3 million of cash pays for roughly two more weeks at that pace. They have the price wrong so far: four closes above $80,000. The preferred's gain came from corporate cash, a repair and not a rerating.

Three markers carry into Wednesday. STRC: a close at or above $99.00 with the ten-year near 5.15% says the buyback sets the price; a close under Friday's $97.72 says $193.1 million bought a weekend. Today's fund print: a second creation above $100 million says Monday reached beyond one fund, and a redemption leaves IBIT's day standing alone. Tomorrow's box run: supply pressure above 2.0 once Monday enters the window, the last reading before September 21 leaves on Thursday.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-20/daily-synthesis-b6765ea6.png)

At 1.236 times the floor, Bitcoin holds the lower third of its band, $15,514 above the $65,869 floor.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, exchange balances, network state, Daily Experiment, Fear and Greed composite, synthesis), Strategy Form 8-K of October 19, 2026 (SEC), Farside Investors, Coinbase spot via the box, FRED, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, FXStreet, The Rio Times, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792578429935000&sa=E, and reporting from CoinDesk, Bloomberg, Cointelegraph, Invezz, Crypto Briefing, crypto.news, KuCoin and Yahoo Finance. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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