# The Hashpoint for October 22, 2026

*October 22, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> STRC Clears $99 Before Oil Takes Bitcoin Back

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 22, 2026*

STRC closed Wednesday at $99.20, up 49 cents from Tuesday's $98.71, and cleared the $99.00 line this publication set yesterday with the ten-year still at 5.13%. The same session brought $528.4 million into the spot funds and a 7.5% gain in Strategy's common. Then a Houthi drone strike near Saudi Arabia's Shaybah field pushed Brent to $110.63 overnight, and Bitcoin gave the day back. The coin traded at $81,821 on Coinbase at 6:05 this morning, 2.62% under Wednesday's $84,025 close, 1.240 times the $65,987 power-law floor and 0.521 times the $157,111 median.

## STRC and Strategy

The preferred sits $0.80 under par, session 110 of the run below $100 and 160 calendar days since the May 14 close at par, by the box's count. Effective yield runs 12.10% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box reads issuance as closed. The last $0.50 dividend paid October 15; November pays daily from November 1 if common holders approve the change on October 28.

The common closed at $153.48, up about 7.5% from $142.72, per GuruFocus. A 7.5% move in the common against a 0.50% move in the preferred puts the ratio near 15 to 1, against 54 to 1 on Tuesday. Hashpoint's own analysis reads the narrower ratio as corporate cash at work: Strategy spent $193.1 million on STRC in the week to October 18, nine times its $22.1 million in coin, paid from USD Cash that fell to $447.3 million.

The box's ten-session pace still shows STRC losing 2.3 cents a session, because it stood near $99.43 on October 7. Wednesday recovered ground; it set no high.

No 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. Holdings stand at 848,517 coins at $75,446.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-22/strc-1962181f.png)

STRC closed at $99.20, $0.80 under par, in session 110 below $100.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-22/strategy-purchases-eb150ef0.png)

Strategy holds 848,517 coins at $75,446 after spending $193.1 million on STRC and $22.1 million on Bitcoin in its latest week.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds took $528.4 million Wednesday, per Trader T data reported by Bloomingbit. IBIT drew $235.0 million and FBTC $212.7 million, and no fund redeemed. Three sessions total about $1.08 billion, and October has turned positive at roughly $461 million month to date.

The box has not booked Wednesday yet. Its supply pressure index fell to 1.31 from 2.19 as September 21's $998.95 million left the window, near yesterday's 1.4 estimate.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-22/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-bf8dcac8.png)

The funds created $528.4 million on October 21, with IBIT and FBTC taking about 85% of it.

## Macro and yields

The ten-year read 5.13% on Wednesday's FRED print, up a basis point, and Trading Economics shows 5.09% early Thursday. The real yield rose to 2.78% and the dollar index held at 101.70.

Oil did the moving. Brent rose 1.7% to $110.63 and WTI 1.4% to $98.52 after the Shaybah strike; Saudi Arabia said operations continued. CME FedWatch prices 83% odds of no change on October 28 and about 88% odds of a December hike. Jobless claims print at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792751608789000&sa=E, rose to 63 in Greed from 55. The Hashpoint structural composite rose to 34 in Fear from 32, so the gap widened to 29 points from 23.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-22/macro-context-with-btc-price-eff409c4.png)

Brent reached $110.63 overnight while the ten-year held near 5.13%.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-22/fear-and-greed-07ce190e.png)

Market mood rose to 63 in Greed and the structural composite to 34 in Fear, a 29-point gap.

## Power law and network

Wednesday's $84,025 close was the sixth straight above $80,000 and stood 1.273 times the floor. CoinGecko puts the seven-day change at 2.5%. The box reads hashrate at 1,093 exahash per second, up 11.1% over thirty days. CoinWarz holds difficulty at 140.58 trillion and estimates a 5.86% rise to 148.82 trillion at 19:24 UTC on October 29. Block 972,603 leaves 77,397 blocks to the halving.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-22/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-b2fce10f.png)

Bitcoin trades at $81,821, 1.240 times the $65,987 floor and 0.521 times the $157,111 median.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-22/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-af7e8140.png)

Hashrate reads 1,093 EH/s and CoinWarz estimates a 5.86% difficulty rise on October 29.

## The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's own data. ETF absorption leads for a second day, and this time the move runs the other way: if ETFs keep the last 30 days' pace, they take 504 BTC a day, 1.12 times the 450 mined, and would absorb 100,000 BTC in 198 days (flows September 22 to October 20, at the October 21 close price).

Yesterday it read 903 coins a day and 2.01 times; September 21 left the window and Tuesday's $23.2 million replaced it. Tomorrow's run adds Wednesday's $528.4 million and drops September 22's $714.7 million, so on flat flows the ratio slips near 0.96 times, under issuance, after a $528 million day. The STRC row's 12.25% reflects the box's reading of the escalator rule, not a company statement. The ninety-day link between the ten-year and Bitcoin stays weak at an r-squared of 0.047 across 61 sessions.

| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | 504 BTC a day, 1.12x issuance, 198 |  |
| days to 100,000 | Was 903, 2.01x, 111 days |  |  |
| STRC to par | Pace holds at -$0.023 a session | Never reaches par; rule |  |
| reads 12.25% | Was -$0.076 on $98.71 |  |  |
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC -2.52%, r-squared 0.047, n 61 |  |
| Was -2.42%, 0.043 |  |  |  |
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $84,025 | Floor meets price July 24, 2027, |  |
| 276 days | Was 262 days on $82,938 |  |  |
| Strategy cushion | BTC at $84,025 | 11.4% above cost; halves at $79,737 |  |
| Was 9.9%, $79,194 |  |  |  |
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Family median $102,126, gap -17.7% |  |
| Was $102,070, -18.7%, same models |  |  |  |

![daily experiment panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-22/daily-experiment-bb6b8a86.png)

At the last 30 days' pace the funds take 504 BTC a day, 1.12 times the 450 mined, down from 2.01 times yesterday.

## The Bull View

- The Block: the spot funds drew $528 million Wednesday as ether funds ended a five-day outflow streak

- Bloomberg: Bitcoin rose as much as 2.4% to $84,737 on a tech rebound, with $2.3 billion into the spot funds over the past month

- GuruFocus: Strategy's common closed at $153.48, up almost 8%, after the board lifted its buyback cap to $3 billion

- Motley Fool, via Yahoo Finance: the OCC finalized GENIUS Act stablecoin rules, and Bitcoin has held above $80,000 for a month

The bull case leans on a second $500 million day in three sessions and on a regulator finishing the stablecoin rulebook.

## The Bear View

- The National: Brent topped $110 after a Houthi drone strike near Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field killed two people

- Traders Union: Bitcoin fell 2.4% to about $82,700 in Asian trading, and analysts called the ETF inflows too small to carry a rally

- Bloomberg: Glassnode said the inflows arrived without higher trading volume, and Wintermute called the move "a recovery vs the start of a rally"

- BeInCrypto, via Mitrade: CryptoQuant flagged weakness in Bitcoin and the S&P 500 together as the ten-year pressed multi-year highs

The bear case leans on oil above $110 feeding the rate path and on a flow that has not yet brought volume with it.

## The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.240 times its floor and 0.521 times its median, $15,834 above the floor at this morning's print. The two standing numbers split. STRC cleared $99.00 with the ten-year at 5.13%, which by this publication's own marker says the buyback sets the preferred's price.

The bulls have the flow right for now: $1.08 billion across three sessions and October back in positive territory. They have the durability wrong if they read it as a trend. The box's own window drops under issuance tomorrow even with Wednesday counted.

The bears have the oil right. Brent at $110.63 feeds the December hike odds. They have the preferred wrong. A $0.49 gain on a ten-year up one basis point says corporate cash, $193.1 million a week from a $447.3 million pile, can hold STRC near par for about two more weeks.

Three markers carry into Friday. STRC: a second close at or above $99.00 says Wednesday was not a one-session lift, and a close under $98.50 says the cash bought a day. The box: ETF absorption near 0.96 times issuance tomorrow. October 28: the daily-dividend vote at 10:00 a.m. Eastern and the Fed decision that afternoon.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-22/daily-synthesis-1a3de190.png)

At 1.240 times the floor, Bitcoin sits $15,834 above the $65,987 floor and in the lower quarter of its band.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 19, 2026, Trader T via Bloomingbit, TFTC, Coinbase spot via the box, FRED, Federal Reserve H.15, Trading Economics, CoinWarz, CoinGecko via Analytics Insight, GuruFocus, CME FedWatch via FinanceFeeds, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792751608789000&sa=E, and reporting from The Block, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, The National, Traders Union, BeInCrypto via Mitrade, and Unchained. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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