# The Hashpoint for October 23, 2026

*October 23, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> Yields Drop 18 Basis Points and Bitcoin Falls Anyway

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 23, 2026*

The ten-year Treasury yield fell 18.5 basis points Thursday to 4.96%, its first close under 5% in nearly a month, and Bitcoin fell anyway. The coin closed at $81,307, down 3.23% from Wednesday's $84,025. The spot funds lost $635.5 million, their largest one-day outflow since June 25. STRC gave back 55 cents to $98.65. At 6:05 this morning Bitcoin traded at $81,500 on Coinbase, 1.234 times the $66,046 power-law floor and 0.518 times the $157,252 median.

## Yields and macro

This publication's thesis runs one direction: rising yields pull capital from Bitcoin. Thursday tested the reverse, and the reverse failed. The two-year fell 17.1 basis points to 4.65% and the thirty-year 15.1 to 5.29%, per investingLive's late-session marks. The real yield eased 16 basis points to 2.62%, per Trading Economics, and the dollar index closed at 101.50.

The rate move answered to fear. Meta fell 6.98% on its spending plans, the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.60%, and Brent settled at $113.17, up 4.0%, on reports of renewed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms. Futures priced a 22% chance of no further Fed hike this year, per investingLive. France's ten-year yield rose above the U.S. ten-year for the first time since 2013.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792837595129000&sa=E, read 68 in Greed for Thursday, up from 63. The Hashpoint structural composite fell to 31 in Fear from 34, one day behind. The gap widened to 37 points from 29.

Today brings the S&P Global flash PMIs at 9:45 a.m. Eastern and the final University of Michigan sentiment reading at 10:00. The Fed stays in its blackout until the October 28 decision.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-23/macro-context-with-btc-price-2dea3e78.png)

The ten-year fell 18.5 basis points to 4.96% on a day Bitcoin lost 3.23%.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-23/fear-and-greed-b439c462.png)

Market mood read 68 in Greed and the structural composite 31 in Fear, a 37-point gap.

## STRC and Strategy

STRC closed at $98.65, $1.35 under par, down from Wednesday's $99.20. The session marks 111 below $100 and 161 calendar days since the May 14 close at par, by the box's count. Effective yield rose to 12.16% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box reads issuance as closed.

Yesterday's markers bracketed the close. A second session at or above $99.00 would have confirmed Wednesday's lift; a close under $98.50 would have said the cash bought one day. STRC landed between them, 15 cents above the lower line.

The common closed at $145.80, down 5.0%, per Zacks via Yahoo Finance. A 5.0% drop against a 0.55% drop in the preferred puts the ratio near 9 to 1, against 15 to 1 on Wednesday. Hashpoint's own analysis reads a preferred that lost ground on a falling ten-year as more evidence that its price tracks Strategy's buyback, not the rate. The monthly reset cannot answer either one until November.

No 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. The October 19 filing stands: 848,517 coins at a $75,446 average, after $193.1 million into STRC and $22.1 million into Bitcoin, with USD Cash down to $447.3 million. Strategy reports third-quarter results October 29, the day after common holders vote on daily dividends.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-23/strc-73ae13b5.png)

STRC closed at $98.65, $1.35 under par, after a 55-cent loss on a day the ten-year fell 18.5 basis points.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-23/strategy-purchases-037c98fb.png)

Strategy holds 848,517 coins at $75,446, a 7.8% cushion at Thursday's close.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds lost $635.5 million Thursday, per SoSoValue data reported by TokenPost, ending three sessions that brought in about $1.08 billion. IBIT redeemed $254.1 million and FBTC $217.5 million. ARKB lost $109.4 million. Morgan Stanley's MSBT took $2.3 million, the only named creation. October now runs about $174.5 million negative month to date, per crypto.news, and SoSoValue puts cumulative net inflow at $57.32 billion.

The box has not booked Thursday yet. Its supply pressure index slipped to 1.17 from 1.31.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-23/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-8dc71a5c.png)

The funds lost $635.5 million on October 22, the largest daily outflow since June 25.

## Power law and network

Thursday's close sits 1.231 times the floor. The floor rises about $59 a day, so a flat price gives back multiple every session. CoinWarz holds difficulty at 140.58 trillion and estimates a 6.67% rise to about 149.96 trillion at 18:27 UTC on October 29, with blocks averaging 9 minutes 22 seconds. The box's three-day hashrate median reads 1,093 exahash per second. Block 972,754 leaves 77,246 blocks to the halving, 63.2% of the way through cycle four.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-23/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-43065c7e.png)

Bitcoin trades at $81,500, 1.234 times the $66,046 floor and 0.518 times the $157,252 median.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-23/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-eaeacbc3.png)

CoinWarz estimates a 6.67% difficulty rise on October 29 with blocks arriving every 9 minutes 22 seconds.

## The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's own data. Yield shock leads today: if the ten-year rises 25 basis points, the last 90 days' link says Bitcoin moves 1.14% lower, and 1.15% higher on a 25-point fall (window July 27 to October 22, ten-year at 4.96%).

The link is weak. Its r-squared fell to 0.011 across 62 sessions from 0.047 on Wednesday, and Thursday did the damage: a large drop in the ten-year paired with a 3.23% loss in the coin, the wrong sign for the thesis. For the if-clause to bind, a yield move needs a session without an oil shock or a tech selloff around it. The capital-pull half of this publication's thesis rests on that link, and the box says it explains about 1% of the coin's daily moves this quarter. The STRC row's 12.25% reflects the box's reading of the escalator rule, not a company statement.

| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC -1.14%, r-squared 0.011, n 62 |  |
| Was -2.52%, 0.047, n 61 |  |  |  |
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | 443 BTC a day, 0.98x issuance, 226 |  |
| days to 100,000 | Was 504, 1.12x, 198 days |  |  |
| STRC to par | Pace holds at -$0.080 a session | Never reaches par; rule |  |
| reads 12.25% | Was -$0.023 on $99.20 |  |  |
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $81,307 | Floor meets price June 16, 2027, |  |
| 237 days | Was 276 days on $84,025 |  |  |
| Strategy cushion | BTC at $81,307 | 7.8% above cost; halves at $78,378 |  |
| Was 11.4%, $79,737 |  |  |  |
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Family median $101,856, gap -20.2% |  |
| Was $102,126, -17.7%, same models |  |  |  |

![daily experiment panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-23/daily-experiment-d2944bdd.png)

A 25 basis point rise in the ten-year maps to a 1.14% Bitcoin decline on an r-squared of 0.011, a weak link.

## The Bull View

- CoinDesk: Bitcoin's market dominance reached 60%, its highest since May, as traders sheltered in the coin while altcoins slid

- investingLive: the ten-year fell 18.5 basis points to 4.96%, back under 5% and easing the rate pressure on risk assets

- Benzinga: Michaël van de Poppe said a break above $82,900 would invalidate the downtrend and put new yearly highs in view

- KuCoin, citing JPMorgan: Panigirtzoglou's team said recent OCC, SEC and CFTC actions support near-term institutional participation even without the Clarity Act

The bull case leans on the coin holding market share through a selloff and on a ten-year back under 5%.

## The Bear View

- Bloomberg: Bitcoin breached $82,000 in its biggest decline in over a month as AI jitters weighed on sentiment

- crypto.news: the spot funds shed $635.49 million, the largest single-day outflow since June 25, ending a $1.08 billion three-session run

- Benzinga: liquidations topped $470 million in 24 hours, $434 million of it long positions, as Iran war fears returned

- CoinDesk: China's CSI 300 entered a bear market and Brent rose above $112, its highest since May

- Cointelegraph: DWF Labs found ETF outflows in seven of eight Bitcoin drops of 15% or more since January 2024 and said flows follow price rather than lead it

The bear case leans on a $635 million exit and on oil that keeps the Fed's hike path open even with yields lower.

## The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.234 times its floor and 0.518 times its median, $15,454 above the floor at this morning's print.

The two standing numbers moved the same way, and that is the news. The ten-year dropped 17 basis points on the FRED close, from 5.13% to 4.96%, and STRC dropped 55 cents. Under this publication's thesis a falling ten-year eases the pull on capital. Thursday it eased nothing. The preferred follows Strategy's cash, and the coin followed the Nasdaq and Brent.

The bulls have the rate right: a ten-year under 5% removes the pressure this publication has measured since September. They have the transmission wrong. On the box's 90-day link, a lower ten-year does not bring the bid back on its own.

The bears have the flow right. A $635.5 million exit erased most of three sessions of creations, and the box's absorption window drops near 0.09 times issuance on tomorrow's run once Thursday enters and September 23's $346.9 million leaves. They have the floor wrong if they read Thursday as a break. At 1.23 times the floor the coin keeps $15,454 of room, and the box's clock puts a flat price 237 days from meeting it.

Four markers carry into the weekend. STRC: a Friday close at or above $99.00 restores Wednesday's lift, and a close under $98.50 says the cash bought a day. The box: ETF absorption near 0.09 times issuance on tomorrow's run. The ten-year: a hold under 5.00% through the flash PMIs, with Bitcoin still below $82,900, says the rate and the coin have parted company for now. October 28: the daily-dividend vote at 10:00 a.m. Eastern and the Fed decision at 2:00 p.m.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-23/daily-synthesis-69141ba8.png)

At 1.234 times the floor, Bitcoin sits $15,454 above the $66,046 floor in the lower third of its band.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 19, 2026, SoSoValue via TokenPost, crypto.news, Coinbase spot via the box, FRED via the box, investingLive, Trading Economics, CoinWarz, Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792837595130000&sa=E, and reporting from Bloomberg, CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, Benzinga, Cointelegraph, KuCoin and ChainCatcher. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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