# The Hashpoint for October 24, 2026

*October 24, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> STRC Climbs 71 Cents as the Funds Pull $138 Million

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 24, 2026*

Strategy's variable-rate preferred closed Friday at $99.36, up 71 cents from Thursday's $98.65 and 64 cents under its $100 par. It gained 0.72% while Strategy's common added 0.14% and Bitcoin gave back 0.28% to close at $81,078. The spot funds redeemed for a second day, losing $137.9 million on SoSoValue's count, and the ten-year yield rose 3.5 basis points. At 6:05 this morning Bitcoin traded at $80,555 on Coinbase, 1.219 times the $66,105 power-law floor and 0.512 times the $157,393 median.

## STRC and Strategy

The close clears by 36 cents the $99.00 line yesterday's edition set as the test of Wednesday's lift. The session marks 112 below par and 162 calendar days since the May 14 close at par, by the box's count. Effective yield eased to 12.08% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box still reads issuance as closed. MSTR closed at $146.01, up 21 cents, per StockAnalysis.

Hashpoint's own analysis reads Friday as the cleanest isolation of the buyback this month. The preferred rose five times as fast as its issuer's stock on a day the ten-year climbed and the coin slipped. Strategy's cash accounts for it: across the two weeks to October 18 the company spent $385.5 million repurchasing STRC, per Investing.com reporting carried by Yahoo Finance, against $22.1 million on Bitcoin in the latest week. The monthly reset cannot answer any of it until November 1, and Wednesday's daily-dividend vote changes the payment calendar, not the reset.

No 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. The October 19 filing stands at 848,517 coins and a $75,446 average, with USD Cash at $447.3 million. This morning's print values the position at $68.35 billion, $5,109 a coin and 6.8% above cost. The 50-cent payment that went ex-dividend October 15 pays October 31. Strategy reports third-quarter results October 29.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-24/strc-11e8f78b.png)

STRC closed at $99.36, 64 cents under par, after a 71-cent gain on a day the ten-year rose 3.5 basis points.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-24/strategy-purchases-6e1eb902.png)

Strategy holds 848,517 coins at $75,446, a 6.8% cushion at this morning's $80,555.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds lost $137.94 million Friday, per SoSoValue data reported by Bloomingbit. IBIT redeemed $110.34 million and FBTC $31.78 million, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT took $4.19 million, the only creation. Two sessions now total $773.4 million out after $635.5 million on Thursday, which followed $23.2 million and $528.4 million in on Tuesday and Wednesday. October runs about $313.5 million negative, per CoinsProbe, and SoSoValue puts cumulative net inflow at $57.18 billion.

The box has not booked Friday. Its supply pressure index dropped to 0.28 from 1.17: Strategy and the funds together bought 3,726 coins over 30 days against 13,500 mined. Coin Metrics shows exchange balances down 28,203 coins over the same window, a smaller drain than the 44,379 a day earlier.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-24/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-5c7b3b77.png)

The funds lost $137.9 million Friday, bringing two sessions to $773.4 million out.

## Yields and mood

The ten-year closed at 4.99%, up 3.5 basis points, per Investrade's Tradeweb marks, and FRED rounds it to 5.00%. The two-year read 4.68% on the same marks, and Trading Economics puts the real yield at 2.63%, up one basis point. BabyPips puts the dollar index near 101.8.

S&P Global's flash composite PMI slipped to 57.6 from 58.4, and the final Michigan sentiment reading rose to 48.0 against a 46.3 preliminary. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. Brent settled at $116.72, up 3.14%. Futures priced October hike odds near 7% to 8%, per the Bitcoin News Digest, with economists still looking for a December move.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792924006051000&sa=E, dropped 18 points in a session to 50, Neutral. The Hashpoint structural composite read 28 in Fear, one day behind. The gap closed to 22 points from 37 because the crowd came down, not because the structure rose.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-24/macro-context-with-btc-price-9232978e.png)

The ten-year rose 3.5 basis points to 4.99% on a day Bitcoin lost 0.28%.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-24/fear-and-greed-f85e5cba.png)

Market mood fell to 50 from 68 while the structural composite read 28, a 22-point gap.

## Power law and network

The floor rises about $59 a day, and this morning's print sits $14,450 above it. CryptoTicker puts the coin under its 50-day average of $81,807 for the first time in 66 days and down 0.64% on seven days. CoinWarz holds difficulty at 140.58 trillion and estimates a 7.25% rise to about 150.77 trillion at 17:38 UTC on October 29, with blocks averaging 9 minutes 19 seconds. The box's three-day hashrate median reads 1,093 exahash per second. Block 972,909 leaves 77,091 blocks to the halving, 63.3% of the way through cycle four.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-24/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-ced185e0.png)

Bitcoin trades at $80,555, 1.219 times the $66,105 floor and 0.512 times the $157,393 median.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-24/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-41ed40ca.png)

CoinWarz estimates a 7.25% difficulty rise on October 29 as blocks arrive every 9 minutes 19 seconds.

## The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's own data. ETF absorption leads: if the funds keep the last 30 days' pace, they take 40 coins a day, 0.09 times the 450 mined, and would need 2,479 days to absorb 100,000 coins (window September 24 to October 22, price $81,078).

Yesterday the same row read 443 coins a day and 0.98 times issuance. The inputs changed, not the method: Thursday's $635.5 million exit entered the window and September 23's $346.9 million creation left it, the swap yesterday's edition computed. Sunday's run takes in Friday's $137.9 million loss and drops September 24's $190.7 million gain. Hashpoint arithmetic puts that window near $230 million negative, about 95 coins a day out, so the ratio would turn below zero. For the if-clause to fail, creations need to return before the 10/28 decision. Against that, the preferred held $99.36 on corporate cash, which leaves the funds' bid and Strategy's bid pointing opposite ways.

The yield link stays weak, with an r-squared of 0.012 across 63 sessions. The STRC row's 12.25% reflects the box's reading of the escalator rule, not a company statement.

| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | 40 BTC a day, 0.09x issuance, 2,479 |  |
| days to 100,000 | Was 443, 0.98x, 226 days |  |  |
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC -1.16%, r-squared 0.012, n 63 |  |
| Was -1.14%, 0.011, n 62 |  |  |  |
| STRC to par | Pace holds at -$0.029 a session | Never reaches par; rule |  |
| reads 12.25% | Was -$0.080 on $98.65 |  |  |
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $81,078 | Floor meets price June 13, 2027, |  |
| 233 days | Was 237 days on $81,307 |  |  |
| Strategy cushion | BTC at $81,078 | 7.5% above cost; halves at $78,264 |  |
| Was 7.8%, $78,378 |  |  |  |
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Family median $101,820, gap -20.4% |  |
| Was $101,856, -20.2%, same models |  |  |  |

![daily experiment panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-24/daily-experiment-4c54f9bc.png)

At the last 30 days' pace the funds absorb 40 coins a day, 0.09 times the 450 mined.

## The Bull View

- Yahoo Finance, citing Investing.com and Lookonchain: 40 new wallets withdrew about 9,458 BTC, roughly $771.5 million, from Wintermute since October 1

- Yahoo Finance: net spot exchange outflows reached about $465.6 million on October 22

- CoinDesk: Bitcoin held above $81,000 in a range under $1,000 as the AI selloff faded, after the semiconductor index lost about 6.7%

- Cointelegraph: CryptoQuant's chief executive called the rising hashrate an indirect bullish signal from institutions

- Bitcoin News Digest: futures cut October hike odds to about 7% to 8% from 27.7% a week earlier

The bull case leans on coins leaving exchanges and on a coin that held its range while chip stocks broke.

## The Bear View

- The Block: the funds swung back to net outflows as $636 million in withdrawals erased the prior day's inflows

- Bloomingbit, citing SoSoValue: a second straight outflow day took $137.94 million Friday, led by IBIT's $110.34 million

- CryptoSlate, citing Glassnode: Bitcoin is testing the funds' estimated $81,500 cost basis, with $77,600 the next reference under $80,000

- CryptoTicker: Bitcoin closed under its 50-day average of $81,807 for the first time in 66 days

- Benzinga: Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone warned of a fall to $10,000 if equities correct 20%, with Bitcoin down 7% on the year against an S&P 500 up 13%

The bear case leans on the funds' holders sitting near break-even and on two days that took $773 million out.

## The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.219 times its floor and 0.512 times its median, $14,450 above the floor at this morning's print.

Friday split the two standing numbers. The ten-year rose to 4.99% and STRC rose 71 cents with it. Under this publication's thesis a rising yield weakens the preferred. Friday it did the opposite, and the reason carries a dollar figure: $385.5 million of repurchases in two weeks. The escalator half of the thesis keeps its machinery, since the reset still waits for November 1. The capital-pull half has the weaker footing this week, on a yield link the box measures at 1% of the coin's daily moves.

The bulls have the exchange data right. Coins leave venues at a steady clip. They have the reading wrong when they treat withdrawals as buying, a caution the Yahoo report itself attaches. The bears have the flow right. Absorption fell to 0.09 times issuance and supply pressure to 0.28. They have the scale wrong at $10,000, a print 85% under today's floor.

Four markers carry into next week. The box: ETF absorption turning negative on Sunday's run, near 95 coins a day out. STRC: a hold at or above $99.00 into Wednesday says corporate cash still sets the price, and a close under $98.50 says Friday bought a day. Monday's 8-K: another STRC repurchase larger than its Bitcoin line extends the $385.5 million pattern. October 28: the daily-dividend vote at 10:00 a.m. Eastern and the Fed decision at 2:00 p.m., with Strategy's results the next day and $12.3 billion of options expiring October 30.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-24/daily-synthesis-613a4555.png)

At 1.219 times the floor, Bitcoin sits $14,450 above the $66,105 floor in the lower decile of its band.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 19, 2026, SoSoValue via Bloomingbit, CoinsProbe via BitRss, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://tftc.io&source=gmail&ust=1792924006051000&sa=E, Coinbase spot via the box, FRED via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, Investrade, StockAnalysis, Trading Economics, BabyPips, CoinWarz, CryptoTicker, Glassnode via CryptoSlate, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792924006051000&sa=E, and reporting from Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, CoinDesk, The Block, Cointelegraph, Benzinga, Decrypt, IndexBox and the Bitcoin News Digest. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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