# The Hashpoint for October 29, 2026

*October 29, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> STRC Jumps to $99.92 as Holders Back Daily Dividends

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 29, 2026*

STRC closed Wednesday at $99.92, up 43 cents in one session and 8 cents under par, on the day Strategy's common holders approved daily dividends and the Fed held rates with two officials voting for a hike. The two standing numbers moved in opposite directions: the preferred climbed toward $100 while the 10-year rose 6 basis points to 5.05%. Bitcoin traded at $80,065 on Coinbase at 6:05 a.m., 1.206 times the $66,401 power-law floor and 0.506 times the $158,099 median.

## STRC and Strategy

The box counts 115 sessions below par and 167 calendar days since the May 14 close at par. Effective yield reads 12.01% on the 12.00% declared rate. The box now marks the at-the-market channel "marginal" rather than shut, since 8 cents separates the close from the line that reopens it.

Saylor reported preliminary results showing 99.3% of votes cast in favor, per Bitcoin Magazine, with final certification due in a company filing. If the board acts and the filings clear, STRC's first daily record date falls on November 1 with payment on November 2; STRF, STRK and STRD follow on January 1. Rates and total cash due stay unchanged. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that daily payment smooths the ex-dividend dip and leaves the monthly rate reset in place, so the lag between a rising yield and the coupon survives the vote.

No 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. Monday's filing stands: zero coins bought, $204.9 million of STRC retired, 848,517 coins at a $75,446 average. HeyGoTrade put MSTR's Tuesday close at $141.40, up 1.13%; I found no confirmed Wednesday close. Strategy reports third-quarter results after today's close, with a webinar at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-29/strc-7a2ef4c0.png)

STRC closed Wednesday at $99.92, 8 cents under par, after a 43-cent gain on the vote.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-29/strategy-purchases-20257aad.png)

The October 26 filing shows zero coins bought and 848,517 held at a $75,446 average.

## Yields and the Fed

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10 to 2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, per CoinDesk. The statement read "Inflation remains elevated." Chair Kevin Warsh declined to commit to a December move. Unchained, citing CME FedWatch via Fox Business, put December hike odds at 82.6%, up from 78.3% a day earlier.

The long end did the tightening. FRED, via the box, carries the 10-year at 5.05%, up from 4.99%. Alan Longbon, citing Treasury data, put the 30-year at 5.37% from 5.30%, with the 2-year slipping to 4.67%. The box reads the real yield at 2.67%. I found no dated dollar index close.

Today brings third-quarter GDP, September PCE and jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. August PCE ran 3.4% year over year, core 3.0%.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793355719754000&sa=E, read 51, Neutral, up from 48 and down from 63 a week earlier. The Hashpoint structural composite read 28 in Fear a day behind, so the gap widened to 23 points.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-29/macro-context-with-btc-price-a5b56270.png)

The 10-year rose to 5.05% and the 30-year to 5.37% as the Fed held.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-29/fear-and-greed-456f5258.png)

Market mood reads 51 and the structural composite 28, a 23-point gap.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds posted a third straight day of creations. Farside, via the box, books Tuesday at $176.0 million, settled. SoSoValue, reported by TokenPost, puts Wednesday provisionally at $137.33 million: IBIT $136.01 million and Bitwise's BITB $1.32 million. The box carries cumulative net flow at $57.54 billion; SoSoValue's total reads $57.61 billion on $104.88 billion of net assets.

October changed sign on paper. TFTC's month table runs $26.1 million negative through Tuesday. Hashpoint arithmetic: add Wednesday's provisional $137.33 million and the month stands about $111 million positive, pending Farside's final print.

The box's 30-day window, September 29 to October 27, narrowed to $109.7 million out from $254.7 million a day earlier, and the supply pressure index rose to minus 0.04 from minus 0.17. Strategy and the spot funds together net sold 499 coins over 30 days while miners produced 13,500.

Exchange data splits again. Coin Metrics, via the box, shows balances down 4,323 coins over 30 days; CryptoQuant, via CoinTurk, shows the 30-day average netflow turning positive at 182 coins.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-29/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-a1924f15.png)

Three straight creation days cut the box's 30-day outflow to $109.7 million.

## Power law and network

Bitcoin closed Wednesday at $81,249, up 0.56% from Tuesday, then fell 1.46% before dawn. CoinGecko shows a 1.3% loss over 24 hours and a 2.7% loss across seven days.

Hashrate reads 1,011 exahash per second on the box's daily point, against a three-day median of 1,105 and a live three-day reading of 1,091. Difficulty stands at 140.58 trillion. Blocks slowed to 10 minutes 22 seconds over the last 24 hours, 138 in all, against the 8 minutes 33 seconds the box showed Tuesday. The retarget at block 973,728 sits 127 blocks out, about 0.9 days. The chain stands 76,399 blocks from the halving.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-29/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-a5be844a.png)

Bitcoin trades at $80,065, 1.206 times the $66,401 floor and 0.506 times the $158,099 median.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-29/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-f42cb8a7.png)

Blocks averaged 10 minutes 22 seconds over 24 hours with the retarget 127 blocks out.

## The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. STRC to par led for a third day, and this time the sign flipped: if the preferred keeps the last ten sessions' pace of plus 1.8 cents a session from Wednesday's $99.92 close, it reaches par in five sessions (as of October 28).

Yesterday the window read minus 4.1 cents and never. One 43-cent session flipped it, so a single soft close would push the count out again. For the if-clause to hold, the vote-day bid has to persist into the first daily record date on November 1. The box's reading of the escalator rule still puts the next rate at 12.25%, since the close sits below par; that figure is the box's structural reading, not a company statement. The 10-year offers no clean lever: the box rates its 90-day link to Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.007 over 61 sessions.

| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| STRC to par | Pace holds at +$0.018 a session | Par in 5 sessions; rule |  |
| reads 12.25% | Was -$0.041, never |  |  |
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | -45 BTC a day, -0.10x issuance, |  |
| never | Was -105, -0.23x |  |  |
| Strategy cushion | BTC holds $81,249 | 7.7% above cost; halves at $78,349 |  |
| Was 7.1%, $78,124 |  |  |  |
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC -0.94%, r-squared 0.007, n 61 |  |
| Was -1.27%, r-squared 0.013 |  |  |  |
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $81,249 | Floor meets price June 15, 2027, |  |
| 230 days | Was June 9, 225 days |  |  |
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Median $104,379, gap -22.2% | Was |
| $103,479, -21.9%, same models |  |  |  |

![daily experiment panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-29/daily-experiment-e7cc2b9d.png)

At plus 1.8 cents a session, STRC reaches par from $99.92 in five sessions.

## The Bull View

- Bitcoin Magazine: Strategy's common holders approved daily dividends on four preferreds with 99.3% of votes cast, per Saylor's preliminary count

- TokenPost, citing SoSoValue: spot funds took $137.33 million Wednesday, a third straight inflow day, with IBIT at $136.01 million

- Cointelegraph: two days of creations totaled $286 million and cut October's outflow to about $26 million through Tuesday

- The Block: Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin target to $1.6 million from $1.3 million, a 34.3% annual return assumption

- Unchained: Bitcoin shrugged off a hawkish Fed, gaining 0.33% on Coinbase through the afternoon with implied volatility flat near 37.6

The bull case leans on the funds creating shares for three sessions and on STRC closing within a dime of par.

## The Bear View

- CoinDesk: two Fed officials, Cook and Hammack, dissented for a rate hike in a 10 to 2 hold

- Unchained, citing CME FedWatch: December hike odds rose to 82.6% from 78.3%

- Brave New Coin: Bitcoin slid 1.42% to about $79,732 overnight after briefly reclaiming $81,000

- CoinTurk, citing CryptoQuant: the 30-day average exchange netflow turned positive at 182 coins, the first positive reading since late September

- TokenPost: 30-day apparent demand sat at minus 76,000 coins on October 25, negative every day since October 14

The bear case leans on a Fed that has two votes for tightening and on coins drifting back toward exchanges while measured spot demand stays negative.

## The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.206 times its floor and 0.506 times its median, $13,664 above the floor and inside the bottom tenth of its band.

The spring took a twist rather than a push. STRC gained 43 cents in the session the vote passed, and its distance to par shrank to 8 cents. The 10-year moved the other way, to 5.05%, with the 30-year at 5.37%. The yield half of the thesis holds on the numbers, though the box measures the coin's 90-day link to the 10-year near zero.

The bulls have the flows right for three sessions and STRC right for one. Their weak spot sits on the price tape: Bitcoin gave back its Fed-day gain overnight, and this morning's $80,065 stands $1,716 above the $78,349 line that halves Strategy's cushion. The bears have the dissents right and the December odds right. They have not shown the funds turning to redemptions, and Wednesday's provisional $137 million cuts against them.

The next data points arrive in order. GDP, PCE and claims print at 8:30 a.m. today, and Strategy reports after the close, where the funding plan for its $242.4 million of free cash matters more than the earnings line. The retarget lands in about a day. A STRC close at $100 reopens the share window; a fall back under $99.49 erases the vote-day move. Farside's final print for Wednesday confirms or cancels October's turn to positive.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-10-29/daily-synthesis-df9a94f0.png)

Bitcoin sits $13,664 above the $66,401 floor at 1.206 times, inside the bottom tenth of its band.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 26, 2026, Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin Treasuries, Farside data via the box, SoSoValue via TokenPost, TFTC, Coinbase via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, CryptoQuant via CoinTurk, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793355719755000&sa=E via the box, FRED via the box, Treasury data via Alan Longbon, CME FedWatch via Unchained, Deribit via Unchained, CoinGecko, HeyGoTrade, Bitwise via The Block, If You Spent economic calendar, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793355719755000&sa=E, and reporting from CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Brave New Coin, TokenPost and Unchained. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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