# The Hashpoint for November 1, 2026

*November 1, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> Funds Close October as Net Sellers After $643 Million Exit

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 1, 2026*

The institutions closed October as net sellers. Farside's final Friday table puts the spot funds at $643.2 million out, with BlackRock's IBIT down $233.7 million, and that print turned the box's supply pressure index negative at minus 0.53. Over 30 days, the combined tally for Strategy and the spot funds came to minus 7,139 coins while miners produced 13,500. Bitcoin closed October at $77,424 on Coinbase, 7.4% under the $83,576 October open by Hashpoint arithmetic, and traded at $77,875 at 6:05 a.m., 1.170 times the $66,580 power-law floor and 0.491 times the $158,523 median.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

Yesterday's edition carried a provisional range because BlackRock had not reported. The final number sits at the bad end of it. CryptoSlate and Bitcoinist, both on Farside data, list five funds redeeming Friday and none creating: IBIT minus $233.7 million, Fidelity's FBTC minus $201.0 million, Ark's ARKB minus $129.5 million, Grayscale's GBTC minus $53.3 million and Bitwise's BITB minus $25.7 million. The week ended $202.4 million out after four creation days worth $440.8 million.

October settled at $515.9 million out, per crypto.news as cited by Bitcoinist, and the box's own window from October 1 to 30 lands on the same figure. IBIT took in $932.1 million over the month, per Bitcoinist, so the rest of the complex lost about $1.45 billion. Cumulative net flow since launch stands at $57.05 billion on the box.

The supply pressure index fell to minus 0.53 from 0.19 a day earlier. A negative reading means the two largest institutional channels removed no coins from the float over 30 days and returned some. Coin Metrics, through the box, shows a different current underneath: exchange balances fell 15,880 coins over the same 30 days.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-01/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-90259980.png)

Friday's final $643.2 million outflow left October $515.9 million negative.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-01/macro-context-with-btc-price-b003ea1c.png)

The 10-year closed Friday at 4.93% while the funds redeemed $643.2 million.

## STRC and Strategy

STRC takes its first daily record date today, with the first daily payment tomorrow. At the 12.00% declared rate on $100 par, that works out to about 3.3 cents a share per calendar day by Hashpoint arithmetic. No session has traded since Friday's $99.13 close, which followed $99.99 on Thursday, so the preferred sits 87 cents under par for a 117th session and 171 calendar days since the May 14 close at par. Effective yield reads 12.11%, and the at-the-market channel stays closed.

No 8-K landed over the weekend. Holdings stand at 848,517 coins at a $75,446 stated average, per the October 26 filing. The Bitcoin News Digest summarized Thursday's results: a $19.5 billion third-quarter profit, a $4.83 billion cash reserve, about $2 billion spent buying back STRC, and Saylor's plan to raise up to $30 billion more through preferreds. The same digest reports that CFO Andrew Kang leaves November 5. MSTR closed Friday at $130.51.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-01/strc-bc01dabc.png)

STRC sits at $99.13, 87 cents under par, on the day its daily dividend schedule begins.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-01/strategy-purchases-55440964.png)

Strategy holds 848,517 coins at a $75,446 average, with no purchase since the October 26 filing.

## Yields and macro

The curve gave the funds no reason to sell. Mortgage News Daily shows the 10-year closing Friday at 4.930%, down from 4.997% on Tuesday, and FRED via the box carries 4.94%. The digest, citing Reuters, put the 2-year at 4.59%. The box reads the 10-year real yield at 2.60%. The Fed side runs hotter than the curve: Musalem said "additional firming" will be necessary, and Logan wants at least two more quarter-point hikes, per the digest, which puts CME odds of a December hike near 76%.

Oil moved the other way. Brent rose $2.76 to $117.63 Friday, a six-month high, after a tanker attack near the Strait of Hormuz, and the Nasdaq fell 2.86%.

This week stacks the calendar. ISM manufacturing lands Monday at 10:00 a.m. Eastern against a 54.7 consensus, Tuesday brings the midterm elections and JOLTS, Wednesday ADP and ISM services, and Friday October payrolls at 8:30 a.m. with unemployment expected at 4.2%.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793617807948000&sa=E, held at 30, Fear, against 51 a week ago. The Hashpoint structural composite read 25 a day behind, its band-position component at the 5th percentile of its history. The gap stands at 5 points.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-01/fear-and-greed-79db8bd2.png)

Market mood holds at 30 and sits 5 points above the structural 25.

## Power law and network

The coin printed its tightest day since October 17 on Saturday, per CryptoTicker, a 0.85% range between $77,094 and $77,750. Saturday's close of $77,424 sits 4.1% under the October 24 close of $80,770 by Hashpoint arithmetic. CryptoTicker calls October the first losing month since June. Today is also All Saints' Day on the Christian calendar, and US clocks fell back an hour overnight.

The chain stands at block 974,028 with difficulty at 148.36 trillion. Hashrate reads 1,087 exahash per second on the box's daily point, up 19.3% over 30 days. Blocks averaged 9 minutes 59 seconds, which points to a flat retarget in 1,716 blocks, about 11.9 days out, if that pace held. The halving sits 75,972 blocks away, with cycle four 63.8% complete.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-01/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-b5b0491e.png)

Bitcoin trades at $77,875, 1.170 times the $66,580 floor and 0.491 times the $158,523 median.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-01/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-943639d0.png)

Hashrate reads 1,087 EH/s, up 19.3% over 30 days, at block 974,028.

## The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. If the spot funds keep the last 30 days' pace, they take minus 266 coins a day, minus 0.59 times the 450 mined, and as net sellers they never absorb 100,000 coins (window October 2 to 30, as of October 31).

One session did that. Yesterday the same row read plus 55 coins a day and 1,819 days to absorb, before Friday's final print entered the window. For the if-clause to fail, the funds need creations that outrun the 30-day sum of minus $618.6 million as old sessions roll off. The 10-year offers no help in either direction: the box rates its 90-day link to Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.0006 over 62 sessions. STRC's row has no new session to read. Its rate input picked up a 3-cent entry dated October 30 during the switch to daily dividends, so the box's 0.97% "next rate" reflects a data artifact, not the rule.

| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | -266 BTC a day, -0.59x issuance, |  |
| never absorbs | Was +55, 0.12x, 1,819 days |  |  |
| STRC to par | Pace holds at +$0.141 a session | Par in 7 sessions | No |
| session; rate input misread |  |  |  |
| Strategy cushion | BTC holds $77,424 | 2.6% above cost; halves at $76,437 |  |
| Was 2.3%, $76,315 |  |  |  |
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC -0.27%, r-squared 0.0006, n 62 |  |
| Was -0.32%, 0.0008, n 63 |  |  |  |
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $77,424 | Floor meets price April 20, 2027, |  |
| 171 days | Was April 17, 169 days |  |  |
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Median $104,670, gap -26.0% | Was |
| $104,340, -26.0%, same models |  |  |  |

![daily experiment panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-01/daily-experiment-d4f1f288.png)

The ETF row swung from plus 55 coins a day to minus 266 once Friday's $643.2 million outflow entered.

## The Bull View

- crypto.news: Binance reopened Bitcoin withdrawals Sunday morning, and Richard Teng said the exchange has "replenished approximately 95% of the impacted assets"

- Bitcoinist: IBIT took in $932.1 million in October and stayed positive for the week despite Friday's redemption

- Mortgage News Daily: the 10-year closed at 4.930%, about 7 basis points under Tuesday's close

- Bitcoin News Digest: Strategy booked a $19.5 billion third-quarter profit, and Saylor plans up to $30 billion more in preferreds

- CryptoTicker: Saturday's 0.85% range was the tightest since October 17, with turnover above the monthly median

The bull case leans on a covered loss at the largest venue and on BlackRock's fund holding its monthly gain.

## The Bear View

- CryptoSlate: spot funds lost $643 million Friday on Farside data, wiping out the week's inflows

- CoinDesk: the 18,270 BTC taken from Binance tops Tesla's 11,509 and more than doubles El Salvador's reserve

- tech-ish: the FBI attributed more than $6 billion of the theft to North Korea's TraderTraitor group

- CryptoTicker: October closed 7.67% down on its count, the first losing month since June

- Bitcoin News Digest: Musalem called for further firming "and soon," with December hike odds near 76%

- Bitcoin News Digest, citing Galaxy: nine hedge funds and banks cut about 68,000 BTC of ETF exposure through June

- Bitcoin News Digest, citing Reuters: Brent reached $117.63, a six-month high

The bear case leans on redemptions, a state-linked theft and a Fed still talking hikes.

## The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.170 times its floor and 0.491 times its median, $11,295 above the floor and in the bottom tenth of its band.

October gave this publication's thesis an odd test. The capital-pull half predicts rising yields pulling money from Bitcoin. The 10-year fell about 7 basis points from Tuesday to Friday, and the funds sold anyway, so the month's outflow belongs to Binance, oil and tech, not the curve. The box's near-zero r-squared says the same. The other half holds its shape. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that STRC's monthly repricing lag keeps the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time rate would, and the preferred enters its first daily-dividend session 87 cents under par with the share window shut. Daily payments change the calendar. They do not touch the monthly reset.

The bulls have Binance's coverage and IBIT's month right. They have not answered a negative supply index. The bears have the redemptions right. They have not shown the theft breaking the floor multiple, which moved from 1.162 on Friday's close to 1.163 on Saturday's.

Monday answers several questions. Binance's proof of reserves lands, per CoinDesk, with the full proof due Tuesday per crypto.news. Strategy's weekly filing shows whether the company bought into the drawdown. STRC's first daily session sets the next close against par. A close under $76,437 halves the cushion, and $75,449 equals Strategy's cost.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-01/daily-synthesis-fe151fa7.png)

Bitcoin sits $11,295 above the $66,580 floor at 1.170 times, with the supply index at minus 0.53.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 26, 2026, Farside via CryptoSlate and Bitcoinist, crypto.news, Coinbase via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793617807948000&sa=E via the box, FRED via the box, Mortgage News Daily, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793617807948000&sa=E, Bloomingbit and Rio Times calendars, and reporting from CoinDesk, CryptoTicker, tech-ish and the Bitcoin News Digest citing Reuters, Galaxy and CME FedWatch. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.*

---

Source: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-11-01/  
Feed: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/rss.xml  
Numbers: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-11-01/numbers.json  
Dashboard: https://dashboard.bitcoinhashpoint.com/static/dashboard.html