# The Hashpoint for November 4, 2026

*November 4, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> STRC Climbs to $99.93 as Yields Rise and Funds Sell

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 4, 2026*

STRC closed Tuesday at $99.93, seven cents from its $100 par, after a 65-cent gain from Monday's $99.28. The preferred rallied on a day the 10-year yield rose 6.4 basis points to 4.958%, per CNBC as cited by FNN, and the spot funds redeemed another $115.6 million. The thesis this publication runs says rising yields push STRC down. Tuesday ran the other way. Bitcoin closed at $77,337, 1.159 times the $66,759 power-law floor and 0.487 times the $158,949 median, then traded at $78,447 at 6:05 a.m. after a midterm night that took it to a seven-week low.

## STRC and Strategy

The box logs Tuesday as session 119 under par and 173 calendar days since the last close at or above $100 on May 14. At $99.93 the effective yield sits at 12.01% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box rates the at-the-market state marginal.

Tuesday was the second session of daily dividends. Strategy's last 8-K, filed Monday, shows $208.2 million spent retiring STRC in the week to November 1, with $748.6 million left on the preferred buyback.

Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing lag keeps the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time rate would. A close at par reopens the ATM, and an open ATM lets Strategy sell preferred to buy coin again. Seven cents now separates the instrument from that switch.

No new 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. Holdings stand at 849,327 coins at a $75,451 stated average. The box's rate field still reads 0.72% from a 3-cent entry on October 30, a data artifact on its fourth day, not a company statement.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-04/strc-7a52ed04.png)

STRC closed at $99.93, seven cents under par, after a 65-cent gain.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-04/strategy-purchases-ffbb3c3a.png)

Strategy holds 849,327 coins at a $75,451 average after Monday's 811-coin filing.

## Yields and macro

The 10-year closed near 4.96% and the 30-year rose 6.2 basis points to 5.331%, per FNN citing CNBC; the 2-year added 4.2 basis points to 4.625%. CappNotes prints the dollar index up 0.12% at 101.87. The box reads the 10-year real yield at 2.65%.

September JOLTS showed 7.523 million openings against a Dow Jones consensus of 7.125 million, per FNN. Polymarket bettors gave a December Fed hike 74.5% odds late Tuesday, per The Rio Times.

Today brings ADP at 8:15 a.m. Eastern, the Treasury refunding statement at 8:30 and ISM services at 10:00. Payrolls land Friday.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793877785311000&sa=E, read 26 on Tuesday, down from 37 and from 48 a week ago. The Hashpoint structural composite read 24, Extreme Fear, a day behind. The gap closed to 2 points from 11.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-04/macro-context-with-btc-price-c2ef0af6.png)

The 10-year rose 6.4 basis points to 4.958% as Bitcoin closed up 0.9%.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-04/fear-and-greed-80cb2dc1.png)

Market mood at 26 now sits 2 points above the structural 24.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds sold for a third session. SoSoValue data, reported by TokenPost, show a net $115.56 million out on Tuesday, a provisional figure and about 71% smaller than Monday's $398.6 million. IBIT lost $94.98 million and Grayscale's mini trust lost $52.60 million, while BITB took in $21.92 million, FBTC $6.76 million and MSBT $3.34 million. Three sessions total about $1.16 billion out.

The box took in Monday's session overnight. Its supply pressure index fell to minus 1.06 from minus 0.66, with institutional buyers net sellers of 14,280 coins over 30 days against 13,500 mined.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-04/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-abc4157e.png)

Spot funds lost a provisional $115.6 million on Tuesday, the third straight outflow.

## Power law and network

Bitcoin fell to $75,618 on Bitstamp as Democrats took both chambers of Congress, per Cointelegraph, its lowest since September 16. It recovered to $78,300 by early Wednesday, per CoinDesk. The 6:05 a.m. spot of $78,447 sits 1.175 times the floor and 0.494 times the median.

The chain stood at block 974,452 on the box's Tuesday reading, with difficulty at 148.36 trillion. Mempool.space reads hashrate at 1,024 exahash per second over three days and estimates the next retarget at minus 2.34% in 1,247 blocks, near 10:46 p.m. Eastern on November 12, with blocks averaging 10 minutes 15 seconds. Cycle four stands 64.0% complete by Hashpoint arithmetic.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-04/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-7f11a7a1.png)

Bitcoin closed at $77,337, 1.159 times the $66,759 floor.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-04/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-adf6cd23.png)

Hashrate reads 1,024 EH/s on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793877785312000&sa=E's three-day figure, with a minus 2.34% retarget estimated.

## The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. If STRC keeps the last 10 sessions' pace of 12.2 cents a session, it closes at par in one session (as of November 3). Yesterday the same scenario read 11 sessions at 6.6 cents.

The if-clause needs one more up day. It fails if the 10-year keeps climbing and the preferred follows the thesis down, which it did not do on Tuesday. The box's escalator reading still shows "raise: below par" with a next rate of 0.97%, built on the 0.72% artifact, so treat that line as the box's structural reading of a corrupted input, not a rate. The box rates the 90-day link between the 10-year and Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.00 over 61 sessions.

| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| STRC to par | Pace holds at +$0.122 a session | Par in 1 session | Was 11 |
| sessions at +$0.066 |  |  |  |
| Strategy cushion | BTC holds $77,337 | 2.5% above $75,448 cost; halves at |  |
| $76,392 | Was 1.6%, $76,062 |  |  |
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $77,337 | Floor meets price Apr 19, 2027, 167 |  |
| days | Was Apr 9, 158 days |  |  |
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | -520 BTC a day, -1.16x issuance |  |
| Was -351, -0.78x |  |  |  |
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC -0.06%, r-squared 0.00, n 61 |  |
| Was -0.21%, n 60 |  |  |  |
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Median $104,300, gap -25.9% | Was |
| $104,345, -26.5%, same models |  |  |  |

![daily experiment panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-04/daily-experiment-e5753a02.png)

At 12.2 cents a session, STRC reaches par in one session.

## The Bull View

- CoinDesk: Bitcoin climbed back to $78,300 in a V-shaped move, and 10x Research's Markus Thielen says it "should rally back towards the 82,000 level"

- crypto.news: Ali Martinez puts the short-term holder realized price at $75,875, just above the overnight low

- TokenPost: Tuesday's $115.6 million outflow ran about 71% smaller than Monday's

- The Block: preferred holders approved daily dividend accrual with 99.3% of votes cast

The bull case leans on a fast recovery from a known event and a preferred seven cents from reopening Strategy's funding window.

## The Bear View

- Cointelegraph: Bitcoin hit $75,618, a seven-week low, with about $288 million of long liquidations

- CryptoTicker: spot fund outflows passed $1 billion across three sessions

- Reuters: the $6 billion Binance hack and $4.72 billion of net Binance withdrawals on Tuesday weigh on the market

- FNN: the 10-year rose 6.4 basis points to 4.958% and the 30-year to 5.331%

- The Rio Times: Polymarket gives a December Fed hike 74.5% odds

- The Block: Strategy's CFO, Andrew Kang, steps down on November 5

The bear case leans on fund redemptions, higher long yields and a hike that bettors now price as likely.

## The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin closed at 1.159 times its floor and 0.487 times its median, and the power-law clock gained nine days on a 0.9% close. The headline structural number moved against this publication's thesis. The 10-year rose 6.4 basis points and STRC rose 65 cents anyway. The box already rates the 10-year's link to Bitcoin at zero, and Tuesday suggests the preferred has stopped taking its cue from the curve too. Corporate cash and daily dividends look like its price setters now.

The bulls have the preferred right: seven cents from par, a reopened ATM would restore the largest buyer's cheapest funding. They have not answered three sessions of fund selling that pushed the supply index to minus 1.06. The bears have the flows and the yields right. They have not shown the floor breaking; the overnight low still held 1.13 times the floor.

The next markers come fast. A STRC close at or above $100 ends a 119-session run. The refunding statement at 8:30 and Friday's payrolls test the 10-year near 4.96%. The supply index takes in Tuesday's $115.6 million tomorrow. A close under $76,392 halves Strategy's cushion, and $75,451 is cost.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-04/daily-synthesis-b9ab9dab.png)

Bitcoin closed $10,578 above the $66,759 floor with the supply index at minus 1.06.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of November 2, 2026, SoSoValue via TokenPost, Coin Metrics via the box, Coinbase via the box, FRED via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793877785312000&sa=E, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793877785312000&sa=E, FNN citing CNBC, CappNotes, The Rio Times, FatTail, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Reuters via Investing.com, crypto.news, CryptoTicker, The Block. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.*

---

Source: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-11-04/  
Feed: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/rss.xml  
Numbers: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-11-04/numbers.json  
Dashboard: https://dashboard.bitcoinhashpoint.com/static/dashboard.html