# The Hashpoint for November 5, 2026

*November 5, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> STRC Closes Two Cents From Par as Bitcoin Retakes $80,000

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 5, 2026*

STRC closed Wednesday at $99.98, two cents from its $100 par and the closest it has come in 120 sessions. The 10-year yield fell 6.2 basis points to 4.89%, per Investrade, and Bitcoin rose 4.0% close to close to $80,428, 1.204 times the $66,818 power-law floor and 0.506 times the $159,091 median. The spot funds took in a net $74.6 million and ended three sessions of redemptions. For one session, every number this publication tracks moved the same way.

## STRC and Strategy

STRC gained five cents on Tuesday's $99.93. The box logs Wednesday as session 120 under par and 174 calendar days since the last close at or above $100 on May 14. The effective yield sits at 12.00% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box rates the at-the-market state marginal.

The move came smaller than Tuesday's 65 cents on a day the coin gained 4.0% and MSTR traded up 6.55% at $144.52 late Wednesday morning, per 24/7 Wall St. The MSTR close was not found. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing lag keeps the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time rate would. Two cents now separate that bid from a reopened ATM.

No new 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. Holdings stand at 849,327 coins at a $75,451 stated average, worth $68.31 billion at Wednesday's close by the box's count. Chief financial officer Andrew Kang steps down today and stays on as an adviser; Reza Virasteh takes the role on January 1, per 24/7 Wall St. The box's rate field still reads 0.72% from a 3-cent entry on October 30, a data artifact on its fifth day, not a company statement.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-05/strc-3c093d19.png)

STRC closed at $99.98, two cents under par, in its 120th session below it.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-05/strategy-purchases-940223f2.png)

Strategy holds 849,327 coins at a $75,451 average, $4,977 under Wednesday's close.

## Yields and macro

The 10-year touched 4.964% early Wednesday, then closed at 4.89%, per Investrade. The 30-year fell 3.4 basis points to 5.29% after reaching 5.345%, its highest since October 29. Trading Economics reads the 2-year at 4.60%, the 10-year real yield at 2.64% and the dollar index at 101.53 this morning.

The data split. ADP counted 86,000 private jobs against a 69,000 consensus, and ISM services came in at 54.5 against 54.8, with prices paid at 73.0, per Investrade. Treasury's refunding kept coupon auction sizes steady, per Trading Economics. Brent settled down 8.67% at $94.62, per Investrade, after Iran's parliament speaker endorsed the vote on X, per Cointelegraph. The Dow gained 3.03%.

Rate odds disagree by source. Cryptobriefing put CME FedWatch December hike odds at 50.4% on Wednesday; Trading Economics prints 79%. Today brings jobless claims and productivity at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, with Hammack and Barkin speaking. Payrolls land Friday.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793964106427000&sa=E, rose to 34 from 26. The Hashpoint structural composite read 24, Extreme Fear, a day behind. The gap reopened to 10 points from 2.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-05/macro-context-with-btc-price-29462ef4.png)

The 10-year fell 6.2 basis points to 4.89% as Bitcoin closed up 4.0%.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-05/fear-and-greed-e7cf0982.png)

Market mood at 34 sits 10 points above the structural 24.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds turned. SoSoValue data, via ChainThink, show a net $74.57 million in on Wednesday, a provisional figure. Fidelity's FBTC took in $236.7 million and ARKB $19.9 million, while BlackRock's IBIT lost $201.2 million, per CoinCentral. BITB added $15.2 million. The prior three sessions had shed about $1.16 billion.

SoSoValue puts cumulative net inflow at $56.54 billion and net assets at $102.26 billion. The box logged Tuesday's $115.6 million overnight, and its supply pressure index edged to minus 1.04 from minus 1.06, with institutional buyers net sellers of 14,001 coins over 30 days against 13,500 mined.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-05/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-a834c983.png)

Spot funds took in a provisional $74.6 million Wednesday, ending three outflow sessions.

## Power law and network

The coin bottomed near $75,600 on Coinbase late Tuesday and reached $81,130 on Wednesday morning, a 7.3% swing, per Unchained. CoinGlass counted $950 million of liquidations over 24 hours, $560 million of them shorts. At 6:05 a.m. the coin traded at $80,217, 1.200 times the floor and 0.504 times the median.

The chain stood at block 974,598 on a difficulty of 148.36 trillion. The box reads hashrate at 1,077 exahash per second on its daily point and 1,024 on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793964106427000&sa=E's three-day figure. The next retarget sits 1,146 blocks out, about 7.8 days. The halving lies 75,402 blocks away, and cycle four stands 64.1% complete by Hashpoint arithmetic.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-05/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-6ebfc4d6.png)

Bitcoin closed at $80,428, 1.204 times the $66,818 floor.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-05/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-bacf1cc5.png)

Hashrate reads 1,077 EH/s on the box's daily point at block 974,598.

## The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. If Bitcoin holds Wednesday's $80,428 close, Strategy's coins sit 6.6% above their $75,448 average, and the cushion halves at $77,938 (as of November 4). Yesterday it read 2.5%, with the halving line at $76,392.

A $3,092 gain in the close widened the cushion more than two and a half times. The power-law clock gained 44 days with it. The if-clause holds on any close above $77,938 and fails below it, $2,490 under Wednesday's close. STRC's pace to par slowed to 7.8 cents a session and still reads one session. The box rates the 90-day link between the 10-year and Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.0007 over 61 sessions, so Wednesday's matched moves count as one day, not a relationship.

| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Strategy cushion | BTC holds $80,428 | 6.6% above $75,448 cost; halves at |  |
| $77,938 | Was 2.5%, $76,392 |  |  |
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $80,428 | Floor meets price Jun 3, 2027, 211 |  |
| days | Was Apr 19, 167 days |  |  |
| STRC to par | Pace holds at +$0.078 a session | Par in 1 session | Was 1 |
| session at +$0.122 |  |  |  |
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | -511 BTC a day, -1.14x issuance |  |
| Was -520, -1.16x |  |  |  |
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC -0.31%, r-squared 0.0007, n 61 |  |
| Was -0.06% |  |  |  |
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Median $103,511, gap -22.3% | Was |
| $104,300, -25.9%, same models |  |  |  |

![daily experiment panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-05/daily-experiment-4f1825a9.png)

Strategy's cushion widened to 6.6% and now halves at $77,938.

## The Bull View

- Cointelegraph: Bitcoin jumped past $80,500 at the Wall Street open as stocks rallied on the midterm results

- Unchained: the coin reached $81,130 and squeezed $560 million of short positions in 24 hours

- crypto.news: spot funds took in $74.6 million, reversing three sessions of withdrawals

- CoinCentral: Fidelity's FBTC drew $236.7 million in a single session

- Cryptobriefing: CME FedWatch December hike odds fell to 50.4%

- Investrade: the 10-year fell 6.2 basis points to 4.89% and Brent dropped 8.67%

The bull case leans on a fast reversal from the election low, falling yields and oil, and fund buying back on the positive side.

## The Bear View

- CoinCentral: IBIT, the largest fund, still lost $201.2 million on the day

- BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance: the daily Supertrend flipped red after the Binance hack, and a May-style repeat "would put $60,000 in play"

- EdaFace: CryptoQuant counts 25,793 BTC withdrawn from Binance on November 1 and 2 against 18,270 stolen

- Trading Economics: markets price a 79% chance of a December hike

- Investrade: ISM services prices paid held at 73.0

- 24/7 Wall St: Strategy spent $606.2 million on STRC buybacks against $87.6 million on coin since October 12

The bear case leans on the largest fund still selling, sticky price pressure and a treasury buyer still defending its own paper.

## The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin closed at 1.204 times its floor and 0.506 times its median, back above half the median for the first time this week. On Wednesday the capital-pull leg of the thesis ran in its own direction: the 10-year fell 6.2 basis points and the coin rose 4.0%. The box still rates that link at an r-squared near zero, so one aligned session proves nothing. STRC sits two cents from par.

The bulls have the reversal right: the cushion more than doubled and the funds turned positive. They have not answered IBIT's $201.2 million exit or a supply index still at minus 1.04. The bears have the hike odds and the price data right. They have not shown the floor breaking; the election low held 1.13 times the floor.

The next markers come fast. A STRC close at $100 ends a 120-session run and reopens the ATM. Claims today and payrolls Friday test the 10-year at 4.89%. A close under $77,938 halves Strategy's cushion, and $75,451 is cost.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-05/daily-synthesis-d6bae960.png)

Bitcoin closed $13,610 above the $66,818 floor with the supply index at minus 1.04.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of November 2, 2026, SoSoValue via ChainThink, CoinCentral, crypto.news citing Farside, Coin Metrics via the box, Coinbase via the box, FRED via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793964106427000&sa=E via the box, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793964106427000&sa=E, Investrade, Trading Economics, Cointelegraph, Unchained via Yahoo Finance, Cryptobriefing, BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance, EdaFace citing CryptoQuant, 24/7 Wall St. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.*

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