# The Hashpoint for November 7, 2026

*November 7, 2026, Dennis W. Davis*

> Payrolls Triple Forecast as Bitcoin Holds $283 Over Strategy Cost

*Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 7, 2026*

Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, against a 65,000 consensus, and Bitcoin barely moved. The coin closed Friday at $75,731, down 0.3%, and $283 above the $75,448 average cost of Strategy's 849,327 coins. The 10-year yield rose to 4.87%, per Trading Economics. STRC gained 28 cents to $99.84. Spot Bitcoin funds lost another $411.9 million. A hot jobs print pushed yields up and the preferred up on the same day, the opposite of what the thesis pairs.

## Yields and macro

Trading Economics reports payrolls of 165,000 against its own 40,000 forecast, with September revised up to 60,000 from 29,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year. Bitcoin Magazine put the consensus at 59,000 and called the print "nearly three times" the estimate.

The 10-year touched 4.9% after the release and settled near 4.86% to 4.87%, up 3 basis points. The box's FRED series reads 4.86%. The 2-year rose 5 basis points to 4.52%. The 30-year held at 5.27%. The dollar index gained 0.7% to 102.28. The 10-year real yield reads 2.63% on the box. Trading Economics puts December hike odds near 71%, up from 68% before the report; KuCoin cites 77% and Bitcoin Magazine about 79%.

Stocks recovered part of Thursday's rout. The S&P 500 gained 0.31% and the Nasdaq about 1.3%, led by chipmakers. Bitcoin did not join them.

October CPI arrives Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E, read 28 on November 6, down from 50. The Hashpoint structural composite read 23 a day behind, in extreme fear. The gap narrowed to 5 points from 23.

![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-07/macro-context-with-btc-price-da10d7d4.png)

The 10-year rose about 3 basis points to 4.87% on a 165,000 payroll print while Bitcoin slipped 0.3%.

![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-07/fear-and-greed-92680466.png)

Market mood read 28 against a structural 23, a 5-point gap.

## STRC and Strategy

STRC closed at $99.84, up 28 cents from Thursday's $99.56 and 16 cents short of par. The run below par now covers 122 sessions and 176 calendar days since the last close at or above $100 on May 14. Strategy's STRC page shows the same 28-cent gain, a 12.00% rate and a 12.02% effective yield. The box rates the at-the-market state marginal.

Yields rose and STRC rose. The Hashpoint thesis holds that a rising 10-year weakens STRC below par. Friday ran against that pairing for a second straight session, after Thursday ran yields down with the stock.

No 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. Strategy's November 2 filing stands: 811 coins bought, holdings of 849,327 at a $75,451 stated average. MSTR closed at $128.93, down 0.29%, per StockAnalysis. At Friday's close the stack is worth $64.32 billion by the box's count, $240 million above its $64.08 billion cost.

![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-07/strc-2badee99.png)

STRC closed at $99.84, 16 cents under par, in its 122nd session below $100.

![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-07/strategy-purchases-6c8ffa7e.png)

Strategy's 849,327 coins sit $283 above their $75,448 average cost.

## ETF flows and supply pressure

Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9 million on Friday, per Farside figures cited by crypto.news. IBIT shed $403 million. Fidelity's FBTC took in $42.8 million, the only inflow. ARKB lost $20.1 million, Bitwise $20.5 million and GBTC $11.1 million.

TFTC and The Block settle Thursday's Fidelity line at minus $199.9 million inside the $430.2 million total. IBIT lost money in all five sessions of the week, $1.21 billion in all. The week came to minus $1.28 billion, and November now runs about $1.28 billion out by Hashpoint arithmetic. CryptoTicker reports 2026 ETF flows turned net negative for the year: minus $431 million on TFTC's tally and minus $502 million on SoSoValue's.

The box carries cumulative inflow at $56.18 billion through Thursday. The supply pressure index sits at minus 1.10, from minus 1.15. Institutional holders sold a net 14,813 coins over 30 days against 13,500 mined.

![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-07/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-387de8b8.png)

Spot funds lost $411.9 million Friday and $1.28 billion over the week.

## Power law and network

The floor sits at $66,938 and the median at $159,376. Friday's close put the coin at 1.131 times the floor and 0.475 times the median, $8,793 above the floor line. Decrypt logged an intraday low of $74,781. At 6:05 a.m. the coin traded at $75,897, up 0.2% from the close. Crypto.news puts the week at minus 2.9% from a $78,354 open.

The chain reached block 974,866 on a difficulty of 148.36 trillion. Hashrate reads 1,001 exahash per second on the box's point, down 1.8% over 30 days, and 1,013 on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E's three-day figure. Blocks arrived every 9 minutes 59 seconds. The retarget sits 878 blocks out, about 6.1 days, and CoinWarz estimates a 0.19% cut. The halving lies 75,134 blocks away.

![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-07/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-4b0d9d5c.png)

Bitcoin closed at $75,731, 1.131 times the $66,938 floor.

![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-07/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-7ea18f6e.png)

Hashrate reads 1,001 EH/s, down 1.8% in 30 days, with blocks near ten minutes.

## The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. The box features STRC to par today: if STRC keeps its 10-session pace of 4.8 cents a session, it reaches $100 in four sessions from Friday's $99.84 (as of November 6).

The pace halved from 9.1 cents yesterday, yet the gap shrank by 28 cents, so the count fell from five sessions to four. The if-clause holds as long as STRC keeps climbing on days the 10-year rises; Friday supplied one such day. The box's escalator reads 0.97% next from 0.72%, both computed from small $0.03 dividend entries the box misreads; Strategy's declared rate stays 12.00%. The yield link stays weak, with an r-squared of 0.0004 over 63 sessions.

Strategy's cushion thinned to 0.4% from 0.7%, and a close under $75,448 puts the stack under cost.

| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| STRC to par | Pace holds at +$0.048 a session | Par in 4 sessions from |  |
| $99.84 | Was 5 sessions at +$0.091 |  |  |
| Strategy cushion | BTC holds $75,731 | 0.4% above $75,448; halves at |  |
| $75,590 | Was 0.7%, $75,709 |  |  |
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $75,731 | Floor meets price Mar 26, 2027, 140 |  |
| days | Was Mar 30, 145 days |  |  |
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds, through Nov 5 | -538 BTC a day, |  |
| -1.20x issuance | Was -560, -1.25x |  |  |
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC +0.25%, r-squared 0.0004, n 63 |  |
| Was +0.27%, n 62 |  |  |  |
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Median $103,328, gap -26.7% | Was |
| $102,989, -26.2%, same models |  |  |  |

![daily experiment panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-07/daily-experiment-6cf1a0f2.png)

At 4.8 cents a session, STRC reaches par in four sessions from $99.84.

## The Bull View

- Trading Economics: payrolls rose 165,000 and unemployment fell to 4.1%, a stronger economy than forecast

- The Block: Strive booked a $509 million third-quarter profit and now holds 43,124 coins after buying 15,124 in October

- Investing.com: Bitcoin rebounded to $76,103 Saturday morning, with traders watching $80,000 above

- Trading Economics: the Nasdaq gained about 1.3% as chipmakers recovered from Thursday's 12.3% index drop

- crypto.news: Fidelity's FBTC took in $42.8 million on a day IBIT bled

The bull case leans on a firm economy and a market that held its level through a hot print.

## The Bear View

- crypto.news: spot Bitcoin funds lost $1.28 billion over the week, IBIT $1.21 billion of it

- CryptoTicker: 2026 spot ETF flows turned net negative for the year, down from a $3.20 billion May peak

- Bitcoin Magazine: December hike odds rose to about 79% after the payroll beat

- Fortune: Bitcoin sat 24.98% below its level a year earlier, at $76,024 Friday morning

- CoinDesk: Thursday's liquidations reached $1.26 billion, $1.12 billion of them longs

The bear case leans on the largest fund heading for the exit and a Fed that markets now expect to hike again.

## The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin closed at 1.131 times its floor and 0.475 times its median. The thesis names a rising 10-year as the force that pulls capital from Bitcoin and drags STRC under par. Friday's 3-basis-point rise left the coin down 0.3% and STRC up 28 cents. The box rates the 90-day yield link near zero, and two sessions of opposite moves fit that reading.

The bulls have the economy right: 165,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment. They have not answered $1.28 billion of weekly fund selling or a supply index at minus 1.10. The bears have the flows right. They have not shown the floor breaking; the coin sits $8,793 above it, and STRC sits 16 cents from par.

Strategy's cushion stands at $283. Tuesday's CPI tests the 10-year at 4.87%. A close under $75,448 puts Strategy's stack under cost. A STRC close at $100 ends the run at 122 sessions.

![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-07/daily-synthesis-2d2ed52c.png)

Bitcoin closed $8,793 above the $66,938 floor with the supply index at minus 1.10.

*Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of November 2, 2026, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://strategy.com&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E STRC page, Farside via crypto.news, TFTC, The Block, Coin Metrics via the box, Coinbase via the box, FRED via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E via the box, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E, Trading Economics, StockAnalysis, CoinWarz, Decrypt, CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine, KuCoin, CryptoTicker, Investing.com, Fortune. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.*

---

Source: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-11-07/  
Feed: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/rss.xml  
Numbers: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-11-07/numbers.json  
Dashboard: https://dashboard.bitcoinhashpoint.com/static/dashboard.html