# The Hashpoint for November 11, 2026 *November 11, 2026, Dennis W. Davis* > Ten-Year Clears 5.02% as Bitcoin Breaks $73,000 *Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 11, 2026* The 10-year Treasury cleared Tuesday's auction at 5.020%, and Bitcoin fell through $73,000 for the first time since August. October CPI ran hot at 0.4% for the month against a 0.3% consensus, core rose 0.3% against 0.2%, and the 10-year climbed from Monday's 4.88% to a close CoinDesk puts at 5.015%. Bitcoin traded at $73,551 on CoinGecko at 6:30 a.m., down 1.3% in a day and 4.5% in a week. That price sits $1,905 under Strategy's $75,456 average cost. One leg of this publication's thesis, rising yields, moved 11 to 14 basis points in a single session. ## Macro and yields The CPI report landed at 8:30. Governor Waller then raised the size of the next move, per Bitcoin Magazine: "In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting." He added: "Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take." After the print, CME FedWatch priced an 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike in December and 15% for 50, with zero for a hold, per CoinDesk. The auction told the same story from the buy side. The $42 billion sale tailed 1.0 basis point against the 5.010% when-issued yield, the widest tail since February, per Pomegra and TheStreet. Bid-to-cover came in at 2.46 against a 2.60 average. Indirect bidders took 61.2%, down from 80.3% in October, the largest drop since July 2016 by TheStreet's count. Closing figures differ by source. Trading Economics shows the 10-year at 4.99%, the 2-year at 4.75% and the 30-year at 5.36%; CoinDesk has the 10-year at 5.015% and the 2-year at 4.757%. Either way the 10-year rose 11 to 14 basis points in a day by Hashpoint arithmetic. FRED's 10-year real yield last printed 2.63% for November 6. The dollar index reads 102.48 on Trading Economics, up from 101.70. The bond market closes today for Veterans Day. Thursday brings jobless claims at 8:30 and a 30-year auction at 1:00 p.m.; October PPI follows Friday with a 0.4% consensus. ![macro context with btc price panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-11/macro-context-with-btc-price-90f4957c.png) The 10-year auction cleared at 5.020% as Bitcoin fell through $73,000. ## Power law and network The HASHPOINT DATA email from the box did not arrive this morning, so this edition carries the November 9 bands forward, two days stale: floor $67,117, median $159,803. Treat today's multiples as approximations. On those bands, the 6:30 price stands at 1.096 times the floor and 0.460 times the median, $6,434 above the floor line. Tuesday's low reached $72,787 on Bitstamp, per Bitcoin.com, under the 200-day average near $73,200 that Bitget cites. Forced selling deepened the drop: CoinGlass counted $723 million of liquidations across the market in 24 hours, about $570 million of them longs, per crypto.news. The network sits 338 blocks from the retarget at height 975,744. Mempool.space reads hashrate at 955 exahash per second, difficulty at 148.36 trillion, and projects a 6.81% cut around 3:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday. CoinWarz projects 5.53%. The halving lies about 74,594 blocks away. ![btc price and power law bands panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-11/btc-price-and-power-law-bands-2b4b6f95.png) On November 9 bands, Bitcoin trades at 1.096 times the $67,117 floor. ![on chain network state hashrate over time panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-11/on-chain-network-state-hashrate-over-time-1b1c4d2a.png) Mempool.space projects a 6.81% difficulty cut on Friday at 955 EH/s. ## STRC and Strategy STRC closed Monday at $99.98. This morning no source confirms a Tuesday close: TradingView still shows $99.98 with no trades, and the 24/7 Wall St widget shows $99.89 at an unclear time. The box's series did not reach Gmail. The run below par stood at 123 sessions through Monday, with the last close at or above $100 on May 14, 181 calendar days ago. The board declared November's daily dividends at a 12.00% annual rate. Strategy filed nothing new on Tuesday, per https://www.google.com/url?q=http://strategy.com&source=gmail&ust=1794483101189000&sa=E and 24/7 Wall St. The company holds 850,364 coins at a $75,456 average. At $73,551 the stack sits 2.5% under water, about $1.62 billion in total by Hashpoint arithmetic. MSTR closed Tuesday at $121.07, down 3.6%, per Bitcoin.com. MSCI publishes its final list of non-operating companies today, with changes effective after the November 30 close. PANews and Bitcoin.com note that JPMorgan's $2.8 billion passive-selling estimate rested on the earlier proposal, not the final rules. This publication's own analysis links a higher 10-year to a STRC below par, a higher dividend bill and a slower Strategy bid. Tuesday supplied the yield move. The STRC close that would show the next link has not printed in any source fetched this morning. ![strc panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-11/strc-7b1362b5.png) STRC last confirmed at $99.98, two cents under par, 123 sessions into its run. ![strategy purchases panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-11/strategy-purchases-ae6e3da0.png) Strategy holds 850,364 coins at $75,456, about $1,905 above spot. ## ETF flows Spot funds lost $95.0 million on Tuesday, per SoSoValue via TokenPost and KuCoin, a fourth straight outflow and less than half Monday's $201.1 million. IBIT shed $78.2 million and FBTC $36.8 million; Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $20.0 million. Farside did not load. Seven sessions now total about minus $1.58 billion by Hashpoint arithmetic. Cumulative inflow since launch reads $55.40 billion, and the funds hold $92.82 billion, 6.26% of Bitcoin's market value. The https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794483101189000&sa=E Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows 32, up from 29, though its feed timestamp has not rolled to today. The Hashpoint structural composite did not arrive with the missing email. ![spot etf daily net flows aggregate panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-11/spot-etf-daily-net-flows-aggregate-510338c8.png) Spot funds lost $95.0 million Tuesday, IBIT $78.2 million of it. ![fear and greed panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-11/fear-and-greed-1b0d97d0.png) Market mood reads 32 on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794483101189000&sa=E, up from 29. ## The Bull View - Cointelegraph: ETF outflows shrank for a third straight day, from $430 million to $95 million, as MSBT added $20 million - Cointelegraph: Binance Research finds "BTC moved with the direction of global policy, not its level," and eight of ten central banks it tracks hiked in six months - The Block: 21Shares sees a move above $78,000 putting $85,000 in reach by year-end - Bitcoin.com: JPMorgan's $2.8 billion MSCI selling estimate predates the final rules - CryptoTicker: Strategy CEO Phong Le expects no material price impact from MSCI, with linked funds holding 3% to 4% of shares - Hashrate Index: Luxor estimates a 6.5% difficulty cut near November 13 after a 7.8% weekly hashrate drop, relief for miners The bull case leans on selling that is slowing and on research that ties Bitcoin to the pace of tightening rather than its height. ## The Bear View - CoinDesk: CPI rose 0.4% in October against 0.3% expected, and the 10-year jumped 15.2 basis points to 5.015% - Bitcoin Magazine: Waller said a 50 basis point December hike "should be considered" - TheStreet: the 10-year auction tailed 1.0 basis point at 5.020% as indirect demand fell to 61.2% from 80.3% - CoinDesk: Bitcoin broke $73,000 for the first time since August - CoinDesk: public companies sold 108,247 coins in 2026, about $8.08 billion, per Lookonchain, with MARA and Riot making up 56% - crypto.news: $723 million of liquidations hit in 24 hours, most of it longs - The Block: 21Shares sees a sustained break of $73,000 opening a path to $69,000 The bear case leans on a Fed now debating 50 basis points while corporate holders keep selling coins. ## The Hashpoint read Bitcoin trades near 1.10 times its floor and 0.46 times its median on bands two days old. The 10-year closed between 4.99% and 5.02%, and STRC's last confirmed close sits two cents under par. The bears have the rate path right. After a hot print and a tailed auction, CoinDesk's FedWatch read leaves no odds on a December hold. They still owe the link: on November 9 the box's 90-day read put the r-squared between the 10-year and Bitcoin at 0.0009 across 61 sessions. One day of a 13 basis point jump and a 1.3% Bitcoin drop does not repair that statistic. The bulls have the flow trend right, with outflows down 78% in four sessions. They miss the cost line: Strategy now holds its stack $1.62 billion under water, and its last buy sent $2.30 to STRC for each $1 to the coin. The spring tightened at the floor end. The next confirming print is STRC: a Tuesday close under $99.98 with the 10-year at 5% would put both of the series' numbers on the thesis side at once. MSCI rules today. A close back above $75,456 restores Strategy's cushion, and a Friday difficulty cut lands with price $6,434 over a floor that rises every day. ![daily synthesis panel](https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/content/panels/2026-11-11/daily-synthesis-74f946de.png) Bitcoin trades $6,434 above the November 9 floor with the 10-year near 5%. *Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard bands of November 9 (carried forward; the November 11 data email did not arrive), Strategy Form 8-K of November 9, 2026 (SEC EDGAR), https://www.google.com/url?q=http://strategy.com&source=gmail&ust=1794483101189000&sa=E, SoSoValue via TokenPost and KuCoin, Cointelegraph, CoinGecko, Bitcoin.com, Bitstamp via Bitcoin.com, CryptoTicker, Hashrate Index, CoinGlass via crypto.news, CoinDesk, Trading Economics, FRED, CME FedWatch via CoinDesk, Pomegra, TheStreet, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794483101189000&sa=E, CoinWarz, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794483101189000&sa=E, TradingView, 24/7 Wall St, PANews, Bitcoin Magazine, The Block, Lookonchain via CoinDesk, Binance Research via Cointelegraph. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.* --- Source: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-11-11/ Feed: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/rss.xml Numbers: https://bitcoinhashpoint.com/the-hashpoint-for-2026-11-11/numbers.json Dashboard: https://dashboard.bitcoinhashpoint.com/static/dashboard.html