The Hashpoint for September 24, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 24, 2026

The 10-year Treasury note yields 5.14% this morning, its highest reading since July 2007 and 18 basis points above where it stood Tuesday. Bitcoin fell 3.0% across the same stretch to $83,294.52. Spot ETF creations halved to $346.9 million. STRC gave back 15 cents to $98.91 and lost the nine-nine handle it took two days ago, on day 136 since it last closed at par. Four numbers moved together, and the bond market moved first.

The curve takes it back

For two weeks this publication reported that the curve gave Bitcoin nothing and the coin rallied anyway. Yesterday's edition counted that against the capital-pull half of the Hashpoint thesis. The stretch ended inside 48 hours.

The 10-year closed Tuesday at 4.96% by the Fed's own H.15 tally. It reads 5.14% after a third consecutive session higher. The real yield matters more, because it strips the inflation story out and leaves the hurdle rate, and that number rose 10 basis points to 2.74% on Wednesday. A dollar index at 101.273 marks an eight-week high, and futures price roughly 70% odds of another hike in October.

The cause sits in the data rather than in any Fed statement. September flash PMI put the composite at a five-year high, input costs reached their highest since October 2022, and oil climbed on tension between Washington and Tehran. Governor Michael Barr said Wednesday that further increases are likely needed to reach 2% on schedule.

Price against an envelope seven days old

Bitcoin ranged between $82,941.39 and $85,933.70 over the last day, and market value reads $1.673 trillion. Against the bands this dashboard last published on September 17, price sits at 1.30 times a $63,945 floor and 0.55 times a $152,251 median, down from 1.35 and 0.57 yesterday. The seven-day gain still reads plus 8.8%.

The dashboard refused all seven endpoints for a seventh consecutive morning, a network failure inside this publication's own automation rather than a fault at the site. A floor that climbs every day sits frozen in those decimals, so the real multiple runs slightly below 1.30.

The hashrate estimator reads 824 exahashes, down 10.5% on the month and 57.6% of the February 15 peak. That estimator swung from 828 to 1,080 and back inside four days this week, so read the retarget instead. Difficulty holds 132.76 trillion and adjusts October 3 at 09:26 UTC by an estimated 1.36% to 134.56 trillion, against 2.07% on Tuesday. Block 968,369 puts halving cycle four at 61.1% complete with 81,631 blocks left.

The preferred slips back under ninety-nine

Tuesday's $99.06 lasted one session. STRC closed Wednesday at $98.91, off 15 cents, which restores a $1.09 discount to par and pushes the effective yield to 12.13%. The at-the-market program stays shut through the September 30 ex-dividend date, and the coupon resets October 1, leaving five sessions at a rate the market set in July.

Fifteen cents is a small number, and the day it arrived on gives it weight. The common fell 3.07% to $162.20 and trades at $158.75 before this morning's open, the coin fell 3.0%, and the 10-year added 18 basis points. Against all of that the preferred moved fifteen cents. The instrument that barely rose when the common gained 9.47% on Monday also barely fell when the common lost 3.07% on Wednesday. Hashpoint's own reading holds that the monthly repricing mechanism leaves the instrument impaired longer than a real-time coupon would, and this week gave that reading its cleanest two-sided test.

No 8-K arrived in the last 24 hours. Monday's filing stands: 950 coins at $79,670 and 1,771,238 preferred shares retired in the week ending September 20, both paid from cash. Holdings reach 846,000 BTC against $63.80 billion of cost, which marks the position at $70.47 billion and $7,878 a coin above cost. Wednesday's drop erased $2.4 billion of that cushion in a session. The buyback runs near $1.125 billion since July 20, with roughly $875 million of the $2.0 billion authorization left.

Creations halve

Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $346.9 million on Wednesday. BlackRock's IBIT took $166.3 million, Fidelity's FBTC $143.2 million and Morgan Stanley's MSBT $32.4 million. No fund posted a material redemption for a third consecutive session, and cumulative flow since launch reads $57.29 billion.

Read the trend rather than the total. Monday brought $999.0 million, Tuesday $714.7 million, Wednesday $346.9 million. Each session cut the prior one by roughly a third while the 10-year climbed, which describes a bid that thins as the riskless alternative pays more.

The Bull View

• The Block: Spot ETFs took $998.95 million Monday, the largest daily inflow in eleven months.
• Farside Investors: A third straight session of creations added $346.9 million, bringing three days to $2.061 billion with no fund redeeming.
• CoinDesk: September gains near 10% put Bitcoin on course for a three-month winning streak it last managed in 2012.
• KuCoin: Spot ETFs pulled $1.78 billion across seven days.
• Barchart: Every $1,000 move in Bitcoin now swings Strategy's position by $840 million.

The bulls lean on a week of creations that no fund fought and on a seasonal streak with a fourteen-year wait behind it. Three of those five items measure the same flow twice.

The Bear View

• CoinDesk: Bitcoin pulled back to $84,000 as the 10-year yield jumped 18 basis points to its highest level since 2007.
• Bitcoin Magazine: The 10-year cleared 5% for the first time in nineteen years while oil climbed, and Bitcoin slipped to $84,357.
• Trading Economics: The dollar index reached 101.273, an eight-week high, with roughly 70% odds of an October hike priced in.
• Trading Economics: The 10-year real yield rose 10 basis points to 2.74%.
• usethebitcoin: The rejection at $87,000 triggered about $230 million of long liquidations inside one hour.
• CoinDesk: Nearly $18 billion of Bitcoin and Ether options expire Friday.

The bears lean on the price of riskless money and on the borrowed positions that built up through last week's squeeze. Their strongest point concerns the real yield, because 2.74% raises the bar for every asset that pays nothing.

The Hashpoint read

Price sits at 1.30 times the power-law floor and 0.55 times the median. A coin 30% above its floor and 45% below its median holds room in both directions, and yesterday's 1.35 became today's 1.30 in a single session.

This publication spent two weeks watching the capital-pull argument fail to show up. It showed up on Wednesday. Yields rose 18 basis points, the real yield rose 10, the dollar cleared 101, and every Bitcoin-linked number in this edition fell together: the coin 3.0%, the common 3.07%, ETF creations by half, the preferred by 15 cents. One loud session after a fortnight of silence proves only that the channel remains open.

The bulls get the flow right and its direction wrong. Creations falling from $999 million to $347 million while the 10-year climbed matters more than the streak of sessions without a redemption. The bears get the rate right and overreach on the borrowed money. Options expiry and liquidations move a week; a 2.74% real yield moves an allocation.

The discount stands unchanged. STRC sits $1.09 under par on day 136, held near that line by about $1.125 billion of Strategy's own cash rather than by anyone wanting the paper. The escalator question stays retired for this cycle, because five sessions cannot move a coupon the market has already priced near July's rate. The throttle question survives it: a company that spends $2.30 on its own preferred for every $1.00 on Bitcoin is telling you what its cost of capital costs.

Two markers carry into the reset. If STRC holds $98.00 through the September 30 ex-dividend while the 10-year stays above 5.10%, the buyback is stronger than the curve and the discount is a corporate matter rather than a rate matter. If the instrument breaks $98.00 on a 10-year above 5.10%, the rate wins, and the largest institutional bid in this market enters October repairing its own paper instead of buying coins.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (bands of September 17; all seven endpoints refused this morning on a run network failure), CoinGecko, CoinDesk, CoinWarz, Farside Investors, StockAnalysis, The Block, Bitcoin Magazine, Trading Economics, Federal Reserve H.15, Newsquawk, CryptoTimes, KuCoin, Barchart, usethebitcoin, and Strategy's 8-K of September 21, 2026. Nothing here is investment advice.