The Hashpoint for October 22, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 22, 2026

STRC closed Wednesday at $99.20, up 49 cents from Tuesday's $98.71, and cleared the $99.00 line this publication set yesterday with the ten-year still at 5.13%. The same session brought $528.4 million into the spot funds and a 7.5% gain in Strategy's common. Then a Houthi drone strike near Saudi Arabia's Shaybah field pushed Brent to $110.63 overnight, and Bitcoin gave the day back. The coin traded at $81,821 on Coinbase at 6:05 this morning, 2.62% under Wednesday's $84,025 close, 1.240 times the $65,987 power-law floor and 0.521 times the $157,111 median.

STRC and Strategy

The preferred sits $0.80 under par, session 110 of the run below $100 and 160 calendar days since the May 14 close at par, by the box's count. Effective yield runs 12.10% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box reads issuance as closed. The last $0.50 dividend paid October 15; November pays daily from November 1 if common holders approve the change on October 28.

The common closed at $153.48, up about 7.5% from $142.72, per GuruFocus. A 7.5% move in the common against a 0.50% move in the preferred puts the ratio near 15 to 1, against 54 to 1 on Tuesday. Hashpoint's own analysis reads the narrower ratio as corporate cash at work: Strategy spent $193.1 million on STRC in the week to October 18, nine times its $22.1 million in coin, paid from USD Cash that fell to $447.3 million.

The box's ten-session pace still shows STRC losing 2.3 cents a session, because it stood near $99.43 on October 7. Wednesday recovered ground; it set no high.

No 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. Holdings stand at 848,517 coins at $75,446.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds took $528.4 million Wednesday, per Trader T data reported by Bloomingbit. IBIT drew $235.0 million and FBTC $212.7 million, and no fund redeemed. Three sessions total about $1.08 billion, and October has turned positive at roughly $461 million month to date.

The box has not booked Wednesday yet. Its supply pressure index fell to 1.31 from 2.19 as September 21's $998.95 million left the window, near yesterday's 1.4 estimate.

Macro and yields

The ten-year read 5.13% on Wednesday's FRED print, up a basis point, and Trading Economics shows 5.09% early Thursday. The real yield rose to 2.78% and the dollar index held at 101.70.

Oil did the moving. Brent rose 1.7% to $110.63 and WTI 1.4% to $98.52 after the Shaybah strike; Saudi Arabia said operations continued. CME FedWatch prices 83% odds of no change on October 28 and about 88% odds of a December hike. Jobless claims print at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792751608789000&sa=E, rose to 63 in Greed from 55. The Hashpoint structural composite rose to 34 in Fear from 32, so the gap widened to 29 points from 23.

Power law and network

Wednesday's $84,025 close was the sixth straight above $80,000 and stood 1.273 times the floor. CoinGecko puts the seven-day change at 2.5%. The box reads hashrate at 1,093 exahash per second, up 11.1% over thirty days. CoinWarz holds difficulty at 140.58 trillion and estimates a 5.86% rise to 148.82 trillion at 19:24 UTC on October 29. Block 972,603 leaves 77,397 blocks to the halving.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's own data. ETF absorption leads for a second day, and this time the move runs the other way: if ETFs keep the last 30 days' pace, they take 504 BTC a day, 1.12 times the 450 mined, and would absorb 100,000 BTC in 198 days (flows September 22 to October 20, at the October 21 close price).

Yesterday it read 903 coins a day and 2.01 times; September 21 left the window and Tuesday's $23.2 million replaced it. Tomorrow's run adds Wednesday's $528.4 million and drops September 22's $714.7 million, so on flat flows the ratio slips near 0.96 times, under issuance, after a $528 million day. The STRC row's 12.25% reflects the box's reading of the escalator rule, not a company statement. The ninety-day link between the ten-year and Bitcoin stays weak at an r-squared of 0.047 across 61 sessions.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	504 BTC a day, 1.12x issuance, 198
days to 100,000	Was 903, 2.01x, 111 days
STRC to par	Pace holds at -$0.023 a session	Never reaches par; rule
reads 12.25%	Was -$0.076 on $98.71
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -2.52%, r-squared 0.047, n 61
Was -2.42%, 0.043
Power-law clock	BTC holds $84,025	Floor meets price July 24, 2027,
276 days	Was 262 days on $82,938
Strategy cushion	BTC at $84,025	11.4% above cost; halves at $79,737
Was 9.9%, $79,194
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Family median $102,126, gap -17.7%
Was $102,070, -18.7%, same models

The Bull View

• The Block: the spot funds drew $528 million Wednesday as ether funds ended a five-day outflow streak
• Bloomberg: Bitcoin rose as much as 2.4% to $84,737 on a tech rebound, with $2.3 billion into the spot funds over the past month
• GuruFocus: Strategy's common closed at $153.48, up almost 8%, after the board lifted its buyback cap to $3 billion
• Motley Fool, via Yahoo Finance: the OCC finalized GENIUS Act stablecoin rules, and Bitcoin has held above $80,000 for a month

The bull case leans on a second $500 million day in three sessions and on a regulator finishing the stablecoin rulebook.

The Bear View

• The National: Brent topped $110 after a Houthi drone strike near Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field killed two people
• Traders Union: Bitcoin fell 2.4% to about $82,700 in Asian trading, and analysts called the ETF inflows too small to carry a rally
• Bloomberg: Glassnode said the inflows arrived without higher trading volume, and Wintermute called the move "a recovery vs the start of a rally"
• BeInCrypto, via Mitrade: CryptoQuant flagged weakness in Bitcoin and the S&P 500 together as the ten-year pressed multi-year highs

The bear case leans on oil above $110 feeding the rate path and on a flow that has not yet brought volume with it.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.240 times its floor and 0.521 times its median, $15,834 above the floor at this morning's print. The two standing numbers split. STRC cleared $99.00 with the ten-year at 5.13%, which by this publication's own marker says the buyback sets the preferred's price.

The bulls have the flow right for now: $1.08 billion across three sessions and October back in positive territory. They have the durability wrong if they read it as a trend. The box's own window drops under issuance tomorrow even with Wednesday counted.

The bears have the oil right. Brent at $110.63 feeds the December hike odds. They have the preferred wrong. A $0.49 gain on a ten-year up one basis point says corporate cash, $193.1 million a week from a $447.3 million pile, can hold STRC near par for about two more weeks.

Three markers carry into Friday. STRC: a second close at or above $99.00 says Wednesday was not a one-session lift, and a close under $98.50 says the cash bought a day. The box: ETF absorption near 0.96 times issuance tomorrow. October 28: the daily-dividend vote at 10:00 a.m. Eastern and the Fed decision that afternoon.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 19, 2026, Trader T via Bloomingbit, TFTC, Coinbase spot via the box, FRED, Federal Reserve H.15, Trading Economics, CoinWarz, CoinGecko via Analytics Insight, GuruFocus, CME FedWatch via FinanceFeeds, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792751608789000&sa=E, and reporting from The Block, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, The National, Traders Union, BeInCrypto via Mitrade, and Unchained. Nothing here is investment advice.