The Hashpoint for September 28, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 28, 2026

Evening Update: Strategy's week

Added 9:15 PM ET, September 28, after Strategy's weekly filing.

Strategy's weekly filing landed after this edition went live. From September 21 through September 27, the company bought 1,665 bitcoin for $142.7 million, an average of $85,681 a coin, its highest weekly average since the week ending February 1. It now holds 847,666 coins at an aggregate cost of $63.95 billion, or $75,437 a coin.

The funding is the news. Strategy sold 1,469,165 shares of its common stock for $246.2 million in net proceeds. The week before, it paid for coins out of cash and sold no shares at all. This week the common stock paid for both halves of the program: $142.7 million went into bitcoin and $103.5 million toward STRC, where the company retired 1,534,530 shares for $151.7 million and covered the last $48.1 million from cash.

So the preferred still took slightly more than the coin, $1.06 for every $1.00, against $2.30 the week before. The repurchase authorization has $723.5 million left of its $2.0 billion, which puts about $1.28 billion into STRC since July 20.

The Hashpoint read: the ratio fell by more than half in a week, and the equity window reopened to pay for it. Common stock funding coins is the machine that bought the 2024 top, and this is the first week it has turned since the spring. One week makes a data point, not a trend. The marker for next Monday: another purchase funded by common stock, with the preferred taking no more than the coin, says the machine has restarted. A return to cash-only buying says this week was a window, not a door.

The 10-year Treasury note reached 5.24% this morning, seven basis points above Friday and the highest print since July 2007. Bitcoin gave back most of its week in the same session, trading at $82,676.57, down 2.6% on the day and holding only 1.5% of the last seven. Price reads 1.29 times the power-law floor against 1.33 on Sunday, the lowest multiple of the past five editions. STRC closed Friday at $98.49, $1.51 under par on day 140, and the coupon that competes with that 5.24% cannot move until Thursday.

The rate sets a new 2007 high

Seven basis points on a Monday would pass without comment in most months. This one carries 48 basis points of gain across September and arrives with the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.88%, up 51 basis points on the month. H.15 puts the 2-year at 4.87% and the 30-year at 5.47% through Thursday, futures price roughly 66% odds of another quarter-point increase in October, and the dollar index added 0.22% to 101.188.

Two forces pushed the curve today, and only one of them concerns the Federal Reserve. Crude climbed toward $108 a barrel after Iran refused to soften its demands on the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump declined to rule out further strikes. Energy at that level feeds the inflation expectations the bond market prices, so the rate move and the risk-off move arrived together rather than in sequence. Nasdaq futures fell 0.7% alongside Bitcoin.

Price gives back the week while the network adds to it

Bitcoin ranged from $82,581.43 to $85,088.91 over the last day at a market value of $1.661 trillion and 56.9% dominance, 34.4% under its January high of $126,080. Against the bands this dashboard last published on September 17, price marks 1.29 times a $63,945 floor and 0.54 times a $152,251 median. Those band figures now carry an eleven-session warning, because every dashboard endpoint refused again this morning on a network failure inside this publication's own automation. Read 1.29 as an approximation of the level rather than the level itself.

Miners moved the other way. The hashrate estimator reads 1.09 zettahashes at block 968,980, up 5.09% on the day and 20.62% on the month, at 76% of the February 15 peak of 1.43 zettahashes. Blocks average 9 minutes 56 seconds, and the October 3 adjustment now estimates plus 0.74% to 133.73 trillion against difficulty of 132.76 trillion. That same estimate read minus 0.27% on Saturday and plus 0.29% on Sunday, so only the retarget itself settles the question. Cycle four stands 61.4% complete with 81,020 blocks to run.

STRC waits three days for a number it has already lost

The preferred closed Friday at $98.49, up 18 cents, on day 140 since it last traded at or above $100. StockAnalysis printed that same session at $98.54 on Sunday and prints $98.49 today, a five-cent revision this publication notes and cannot resolve. Either figure leaves the instrument short of par. The effective yield reads 12.18% on the $12.00 annualized coupon, the ex-dividend and record dates fall Wednesday, payment follows October 15, and the at-the-market program stays closed.

Thursday brings the monthly reset, and the arithmetic of that reset is the whole point. September moved the 10-year 48 basis points and the real yield 51, and a holder of STRC earned the July rate through all of it. October 1 hands that holder a rate set against conditions that already exist, and November 1 becomes the next date on which the coupon can answer anything that happens between now and then. Hashpoint reads this interval, not the size of the discount, as the structural impairment in the instrument. Friday's proposal to move the payment schedule to a daily clock leaves the interval exactly where it stands.

No 8-K arrived over the weekend, so the September 21 filing still governs. Strategy holds 846,000 coins at a $75,416 average, which marks $69.94 billion this morning and leaves $7,260 a coin of cushion against $9,395 two sessions ago. MSTR closed Friday at $158.61, down 1.86% on a day the Dow gained 0.93%, and traded $154.53 before the bell.

The flow week the rate outran

Friday remains the last settled session at plus $134.5 million, with IBIT taking $97.0 million, FBTC $49.3 million and BITB giving back $11.8 million. The five sessions read $999.0 million, $714.7 million, $346.9 million, $190.7 million and $134.5 million, or $2.39 billion with no negative day and the largest weekly total since October 2025. Cumulative net flow stands at $57.616 billion.

The shape of that week matters more than its sum. Monday and Tuesday carried roughly 72% of it, and each session after cut the one before by about a third while the 10-year climbed.

The Bull View

• The Block: Spot Bitcoin ETFs turned 2026 positive with a $2.4 billion weekly inflow, their largest since October 2025.
• CoinDesk: This year's flow ledger erased a $5.8 billion hole in ten weeks.
• Bitcoin Magazine: Six sessions of creations brought $2.8 billion into the funds.
• Blockhead: Exchange spot volume runs 121% above its August base, with $84,000 to $85,000 the largest long-term holder supply cluster.
• CoinWarz: The hashrate estimator gained 20.62% on the month and the October 3 retarget points higher at plus 0.74%.

The bulls lean on a flow ledger that recovered ten weeks of damage in ten weeks and on holders who have yet to turn a rally into exit liquidity.

The Bear View

• Trading Economics: The 10-year reached 5.24%, its highest since July 2007, with about 66% odds priced for an October increase.
• Investing.com: Bitcoin fell to $83,061 as yields above 5% and stalled Iran talks pressured every risk asset.
• CoinDesk: Nasdaq futures fell 0.7% alongside Bitcoin after the president declined to rule out further Iran strikes, with crude near $108.
• CoinDesk: LVRG Research's Dan Khus called the move a risk-off squeeze after a four-day rally, carrying more than $500 million of liquidations.
• 24/7 Wall St: Daily ETF inflows fell 87% across last week, and the first two sessions carried 72% of the total.
• Bitcoin Magazine: Investigators link North Korean actors to the $388 million Bitget theft.
• Rio Times: Total crypto market value fell about 1.2% to roughly $2.86 trillion.

The bears lean on the price of riskless money and on a flow recovery whose daily print shrank every session it ran. Their strongest number stays the real yield at 2.88%.

The Hashpoint read

Price sits at 1.29 times the power-law floor and 0.54 times the median, four hundredths below Sunday. Sunday's edition credited the ETF flow turn and questioned its size, and one session later the rate answered the question: a $2.39 billion week bought four days of gains that a seven basis point move in the 10-year took back before lunch. That ratio, rather than the direction of either number, is the reading this publication takes from today.

The bulls get the flow turn right and its durability wrong. Institutional money came back, and it came back decaying from $999 million to $134 million in five sessions while the discount rate on every future dollar climbed. The bears get the rate right and the hack wrong. A $388 million theft covered by an exchange protection fund moved nothing on this page, while a real yield at 2.88% sets the hurdle for a coin with no coupon and for a preferred whose coupon stands still for three more days.

Three dates decide the next reading, and all of them fall this week. STRC's ex-dividend and record dates land Wednesday alongside August PCE, and a close holding $98.00 through them with the 10-year above 5.20% says corporate cash still beats the curve. The rate resets Thursday, and a coupon landing near the July level says the escalation mechanism never fired in the cycle this publication spent three weeks watching for it. Payrolls arrive Friday near a 100,000 consensus, and a hot print lifts October's hike odds above 66% while the instrument that answers for it waits until November.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (bands of September 17; every endpoint refused this morning on a run network failure), CoinGecko, CoinDesk, Farside Investors, The Block, Bitcoin Magazine, StockAnalysis, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, Federal Reserve H.15, Investing.com, KuCoin, Blockhead, Rio Times, 24/7 Wall St, and Strategy's 8-K of September 21, 2026. Nothing here is investment advice.