The Hashpoint for September 29, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 29, 2026

Strategy spent $151.7 million retiring its own preferred stock last week and $142.7 million buying Bitcoin, paying for both by reopening an equity window it had refused seven days earlier. Monday's 8-K reports 1,469,165 Class A shares sold for $246.2 million net, 1,665 coins bought at $85,681, and 1,534,530 STRC shares withdrawn from the market. STRC closed at $99.10, ninety cents under par on day 141. Bitcoin trades at $83,767.32 this morning, up 1.2%, at 1.31 times the power-law floor and 0.55 times the median, against a 10-year Treasury note holding 5.25%.

Strategy pays almost dollar for dollar to repair its own paper

Eight days ago this publication led on a ratio: $2.30 into the preferred for every $1.00 into Bitcoin, funded entirely out of cash with the share window shut. That ratio now reads $1.06 to $1.00, and the funding source changed completely. Common holders absorbed 1.5 million new shares so that the company could buy coins above its cost basis and retire paper that buys none.

The holdings line moves to 847,666 BTC at an aggregate $63.95 billion and an average cost of $75,437. At this morning's price the position marks $71.01 billion, $8,330 a coin above cost. Cash reserves stand at $5.02 billion in the USD Reserve and $1.00 billion in USD Cash. The buyback has now consumed roughly $1.277 billion of its $2.0 billion authorization since July 20, leaving about $723 million.

The instrument responded. STRC closed Monday at $99.10 on a day MSTR added 0.96% to $160.13, clearing the $99.00 line this publication set on September 19 for a second time this month. Effective yield reads 12.11% on the $12.00 annualized coupon. The at-the-market program for STRC itself stays closed, the ex-dividend and record dates fall tomorrow, payment follows October 15, and the monthly rate resets Thursday. Read that close to about five cents: StockAnalysis has printed September 25 three different ways across three mornings and carries no September 28 session, so this figure comes from MarketChameleon.

The rate the coupon still cannot answer

Monday moved the 10-year eight basis points to 5.21%, and this morning holds 5.25%, the highest reading since mid-2007. The 30-year sits near 5.48%, the 10-year TIPS real yield rose five basis points to 2.89% and has added 51 across September, and the dollar index gained 0.25% to 101.4456. Futures price roughly 70% odds of another quarter point on October 28.

Two things pushed the curve, and only one belongs to the Federal Reserve. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal on the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, lifting Brent toward $107 and carrying one-year consumer inflation expectations to 4.6%. September's flash PMI composite at 58.4 did the rest.

Thursday supplies the number this publication has watched for three weeks. A holder of STRC earned the July rate through all of September's 51 basis points of real-yield gain, and October 1 hands that holder a rate set against conditions that already exist. November 1 becomes the next date on which the coupon can answer anything.

Price holds while the network adds work

Bitcoin closed Monday at $83,503, down 1.13%, and recovered 1.2% overnight. The seven-day range runs $82,581.43 to $87,251.25 at a market value of $1.683 trillion, 33.6% under the January high of $126,080. Against the bands this dashboard last published on September 17, price marks 1.31 times a $63,945 floor and 0.55 times a $152,251 median. Those bands now carry a twelve-session warning, so read 1.31 as a level rather than a measurement.

Miners kept adding. The estimator reads 1.06 zettahashes at block 969,129, up 3.9% on the day and 17.33% on the week, at 74.4% of the February 15 peak. Blocks average 9 minutes 56 seconds, and the October 3 adjustment estimates plus 0.54% to 133.47 trillion against difficulty of 132.76 trillion. That same estimate has printed minus 0.27%, plus 0.29% and plus 0.74% across the last four mornings, so only Saturday settles it. Cycle four stands 61.49% complete with 80,871 blocks to run.

Eight sessions of creations, and nearly nothing left in them

Monday brought the eighth consecutive session of net creations at $31.07 million. IBIT took $54.84 million, the Grayscale Mini Trust took $10.32 million, and GBTC gave back $23.19 million. Six sessions read $998.95 million, $714.75 million, $346.98 million, $190.65 million, $134.47 million, and now $31.07 million, so Monday's print is 3.1% of the Monday before it. Cumulative net flow stands at $57.58 billion across $107.82 billion of net assets.

The Bull View

• Stocktitan: Strategy bought 1,665 coins for $142.7 million at $85,681 and lifted its treasury to 847,666 BTC.
• KuCoin: Strategy and Strive together committed more than $237 million last week, with Strive adding 1,107 coins for $94.5 million.
• CoinDesk: Bitcoin heads for a rare September gain, up about 7% on the month and more than 40% on the quarter.
• CoinDesk: 10x Research's Markus Thielen and Dan Niles both see a 6% 10-year, and argue that a fiscally driven yield rise helps Bitcoin.
• Decrypt: Seven straight sessions of creations turned 2026 ETF flows positive for the first time since May.
• CoinWarz: Hashrate recovered 17.33% in a week to 1.06 zettahashes.

The bulls lean on corporate buyers who paid above spot and on a yield move they read as a fiscal story rather than a tightening story. Their strongest number is the quarter, better than 40%.

The Bear View

• Bloomberg: Bitcoin's rally wobbles as macro risk overshadows ETF demand.
• CoinDesk: The 10-year reached 5.25%, its highest since 2007, and Bitcoin slipped to $83,100 on it.
• Babypips: Monday's selloff followed the rejection of Iran's proposal, with Brent near $107 and one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%.
• KuCoin: The S&P 500 fell 0.77% and the Nasdaq 0.92%, and Bitcoin fell with them.
• Coinlaw: Common holders took 1.5 million shares of dilution to retire preferred stock that bought no coins.
• Rio Times: Total crypto value held near $2.86 trillion with no retail bid behind the move.

The bears lean on the price of riskless money and on who paid for Monday's repair. Their strongest number stays the real yield at 2.89%.

The Hashpoint read

Price sits at 1.31 times the power-law floor and 0.55 times the median, two hundredths above Monday. The structural fact of the day belongs to the filing rather than to the tape. Strategy reopened its common equity window, and the moment it did, the ratio between preferred repair and coin accumulation collapsed from $2.30 to $1.06. That says the constraint on accumulation was never a starved balance sheet. It was a closed share window, and a closed share window reopens on the company's terms.

The bulls get the buyer right and the price wrong. Strategy paid $85,681 a coin for money it raised by diluting holders at $160, and it still spent more on its own paper than on the asset it exists to hold. The bears get the rate right and the mechanism wrong. A 5.25% 10-year does pull capital, but the evidence now runs through a share count rather than an empty treasury, and dilution costs a company far less than a funding freeze.

Three dates settle the next reading. STRC's ex-dividend and record dates land tomorrow alongside August PCE, and a hold above $99.00 through them says corporate cash and a reopened ATM together beat a 5.25% curve. The rate resets Thursday, and a coupon landing near the July level confirms that the escalation mechanism never fired in the cycle this publication spent three weeks watching. Payrolls arrive Friday near a 100,000 consensus, and a hot print lifts October's hike odds above 70% while the instrument that answers for it waits until November 1.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (bands of September 17; no dashboard data reached this run), CoinGecko, CoinDesk, Farside Investors, Phemex, KuCoin, Decrypt, Bloomberg, MarketChameleon, StockAnalysis, GuruFocus, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, Babypips, FXStreet, Coinlaw, Rio Times, Investing.com, and Strategy's 8-K of September 28, 2026. Nothing here is investment advice.