The Hashpoint for October 1, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 1, 2026

Inflation came in three tenths of a point under consensus yesterday, traders cut the odds of an October rate increase to roughly 35% from about 70% earlier in the week, and the 10-year Treasury note rose for a fourth consecutive session anyway, reaching 5.33% this morning. The spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds answered inside the same session: $148.7 million left on September 30, ending nine straight days of creations, with Fidelity's FBTC accounting for $125.6 million of it. STRC closed at $99.35, sixty-five cents under par on session 95 below it, and its monthly rate resets today. Bitcoin trades at $83,484, down 0.09% from yesterday's close, at 1.289 times a power-law floor of $64,756 and 0.542 times a median of $154,180.

The rate the curve could not reach

Today is the date this publication has pointed at for three weeks. STRC's variable coupon resets on the first of the month, and the September it answers for added about half a point to the 10-year and 48 basis points to the real yield. At the 6:05 AM snapshot the dashboard still carries a declared annual rate of 12.0% with an effective date of July 1.

The instrument walked up to par and stopped. Monday brought $99.10, Tuesday $99.56, and yesterday $99.35, which leaves sixty-five cents to go on a run of 95 settled sessions and 139 calendar days since the May 14 close at par. Effective yield reads 12.08%, the at-the-market channel stays shut, and zero percent of the last thirty sessions have settled at or above $100.

Two things did that repair, and neither came from the rate environment. Roughly $1.28 billion of corporate buybacks lifted the price out of the low nineties since July 20, and yesterday's ex-dividend date on the $0.500 semi-monthly coupon pulled a capture bid into the close.

No 8-K reached the wire overnight, so the September 28 filing stands. Strategy holds 847,666 coins against $63.95 billion of cost and a $75,437 average, a position worth $70.76 billion this morning and $8,047 a coin above what the company paid. MSTR closed at $153.09, off 1.02%, on the last session of the quarter.

Nine sessions of creations end in a redemption

The sequence tells this better than the single print. Since September 18 the settled sessions read $433.0 million, $998.95 million, $714.7 million, $346.9 million, $190.7 million, $134.5 million, $31.0 million, $66.2 million, and now minus $148.7 million. Every fund sat at zero yesterday except the three that redeemed, so not one creation reached the tape across thirteen tickers.

Cumulative net flow slips to $57.564 billion on Farside's tally. The supply pressure index falls to 2.673 from 2.804, putting 36,082 coins of institutional buying over thirty days against 13,500 coins of issuance, while exchange balances fell 17,564 coins across the same window.

Cooler inflation, higher yields

August core PCE printed 3.0% against a 3.3% forecast and 3.3% in July, with headline inflation at 3.4% against 3.7% expected. Officials now point at December rather than October for any further move.

The long end took none of it. The 10-year reads 5.32% after an intraday 5.33%, a fourth consecutive session higher and a 19-year high. The 30-year sits at 5.63%, the most since 2002, the real yield holds at 2.92%, and the dollar index gained 0.50% to 101.96 after closing at its strongest since late July.

Bitcoin rallied to $85,600 on the inflation data and gave all of it back, closing the quarter at $83,554. Jobless claims and ISM manufacturing arrive this morning, with Barkin, Waller and Williams speaking. September payrolls land tomorrow.

The floor keeps climbing

Cycle position reads 0.1296, the lower third of the band. The multiple against the floor has fallen from 1.35 on September 23 to 1.289 this morning while the price barely moved, because the floor rises with time and the price did not follow.

Miners keep adding machines. The network ran at 1,088.29 exahashes on Tuesday's observation, up 19.69% across thirty days, at difficulty of 132.76 trillion and block 969,355. A 9 minute 50 second average interval puts Saturday's retarget 341 blocks out at an estimated plus 1.76% to about 135.09 trillion. Cycle four stands 61.6% complete with 80,645 blocks to the April 2028 halving.

The Bull View

• CNBC: Core PCE came in at 3.0% in August against a 3.3% forecast, much lighter than expected.
• Yahoo Finance: Headline inflation eased to 3.4%, cutting October hike odds to about 35% from roughly 70% earlier in the week.
• CryptoPotato: September closed 6.33% higher, a third straight green month and the fifth positive month of 2026.
• Rio Times: The quarter ran about 43% higher, and the inflation print lifted Bitcoin to $85,600 intraday.
• Invezz: Coin-denominated open interest fell nearly 20% from its August peak to March lows, with perpetual positioning back near neutral.
• CryptoPotato: Bitget Wallet's Lacie Zhang puts Bitcoin's median October return at 11% to 14% historically.

The bulls lean on a central bank that just lost most of its October increase and on positioning that cleaned itself out after the September squeeze. Their strongest number stays the 3.0% core print.

The Bear View

• Farside Investors: Spot funds redeemed $148.7 million on September 30, ending a nine-session run, with FBTC alone at $125.6 million.
• Trading Economics: The 10-year reached 5.33% in a fourth consecutive session of increases to open the final quarter.
• Rio Times: The 30-year hit 5.63% and the dollar index closed at 101.45, its highest since late July.
• FXStreet: Rising yields and a dollar above 101.80 outweighed the softer inflation data, with $85,000 rejected twice this week.
• CryptoTimes: Glassnode puts the heaviest long-term-holder cost basis at $84,000 to $85,000, and a break under $84,000 brings $77,000 back into view.
• AmbCrypto: Goldman Sachs still prices an October increase and sees a path to 6% on the 10-year next year.

The bears lean on the price of long money, which lower policy odds did nothing to lower. Their strongest number stays the 30-year at 5.63%.

The Hashpoint read

Yesterday settled a question these pages opened on Tuesday. The rate that competes with Bitcoin no longer answers to the Federal Reserve. Traders removed most of October's increase on a cooler inflation print, and the 10-year rose a fourth straight session while the 30-year made a new 24-year high, which means term premium and fiscal supply now set the competing yield. No pause reverses either one, and the capital-pull half of this publication's thesis works through a channel that policy has stopped controlling.

The bulls get the central bank right and the discount rate wrong. Softer inflation does help a fixed-supply asset, and it did nothing to the 5.63% a holder of long paper collects for taking no credit risk. The bears get the rate right and understate the flow, because one redemption after nine sessions of creations breaks a streak without reversing a trend. Both sides watch the $84,000 line that Glassnode marks as the thickest holder cost basis on the chain, and the price closed under it.

The escalator-lag argument now rests on today's print. STRC sits sixty-five cents under par on session 95, repaired by $1.28 billion of corporate cash rather than by anything in the rate environment. The gauges frame the same split from the capital side: market mood reads 71 in Greed against the dashboard's structural composite at 37 in Fear, a 34-point gap in its forty-third day, with band position at the sixteenth percentile of its own history.

A reset landing near the July rate confirms that the escalation mechanism never fired through a September that added half a point to the 10-year, leaving the throttle argument to rest on the September 28 filing's funding ratio alone. A reset that steps up says the mechanism works and took 95 sessions to find its voice. Payrolls arrive tomorrow, and after today the instrument that answers for them cannot speak again until November 1.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (live bands, STRC, SPI, network, predictions, synthesis and site check as of October 1), Farside Investors, Trading Economics, StockAnalysis, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, FXStreet, Invezz, Rio Times, CryptoPotato, CryptoTimes, AmbCrypto, CoinDesk, The Block, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1790937498672000&sa=E, and Strategy's 8-K of September 28, 2026. Nothing here is investment advice.