The Hashpoint for October 2, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 2, 2026

Strategy's variable-rate reset came and went on October 1 and the coupon did not move. The dashboard reads a declared annual rate of 12.0% still dated July 1, 2026, so the rate survived a September that added roughly half a point to the 10-year Treasury and 51 basis points to the real yield. STRC closed that session at $99.50, fifty cents under its $100 par and the narrowest gap of a run now 96 sessions long. Bitcoin trades at $86,399 this morning against the October 1 close of $84,849, putting it 1.33 times the power-law floor of $64,814 and 0.56 times the median of $154,319. This publication spent three weeks watching for the escalation mechanism to fire. It did not fire, and that absence is the structural fact of the day.

STRC and Strategy

STRC pays a variable rate that resets monthly, and Hashpoint's own analysis has argued since September 9 that the lag between a market repricing and the coupon's answer leaves the largest corporate Bitcoin buyer carrying impaired paper for weeks at a stretch. October 1 was the first date that lag could resolve against a September of rising yields. The rate held. The effective yield on the $99.50 close reads 12.06%.

Two readings follow, and they point opposite ways. Corporate cash and a reopened equity window repaired the discount to fifty cents without help from the coupon, which argues the buyback sets this price. The other reading says the escalation machinery has now declined three consecutive opportunities to engage, which costs the throttle argument its most direct mechanism.

MSTR closed October 1 at $160.50, up 4.84% from $153.09. STRC moved fifteen cents. That ratio near 32 to 1 repeats the two-sided lag test of September 21 and 23, and the preferred again ignored its issuer.

Strategy filed no 8-K in the last 24 hours. The September 28 filing stands: 847,666 BTC at an average cost of $75,437. At this morning's print the position carries $73.24 billion, $9.29 billion above cost, or $10,962 a coin.

Power law and network

The band position improved sharply overnight. Price to floor moved from 1.2892 to 1.333 and price to median from 0.5415 to 0.560, returning both multiples to their late-September levels. Cycle position reads 0.146 and MVRV reads 1.58 against a last-cycle peak near 2.78.

The network ran at 1,051 exahash per second on the September 30 observation, within a fifth of a percent of thirty days earlier. Difficulty holds at 132.757 trillion, and the next retarget lands October 3 at 07:02 UTC with 125 blocks to go and an estimated increase of 0.97% to 134.04 trillion. Block 969,571 puts cycle four at 61.7% complete with 80,429 blocks left.

Macro and yields

The curve gave a little back. The 10-year reads 5.23% this morning after easing a basis point as French fiscal worry drew buyers into safe assets. The H.15 release for September 30 puts the 10-year at 5.29%, the 30-year at 5.64% and the 2-year at 4.88%, with the real yield at 2.93%. That 30-year level is the highest since 2002. The dollar index reads 102.001.

September payrolls land at 8:30 this morning with a consensus of 98,000 against August's 162,000, unemployment at 4.1% and earnings up 0.3% on the month. Markets price about a 34% chance of an October 28 hike, down from roughly 70% a week ago. Analysts expect a downward revision to August, which gives the earnings line more weight than the headline count.

Both Fear and Greed gauges hold their 44-day pattern. Market mood, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791023696535000&sa=E, reads 74 in Greed after printing 71 on September 30. Hashpoint structural reads 37 in Fear on September 30 data, unchanged across the week, with band position its weakest component at 16.1.

ETF flows

The funds took $102.7 million on October 1, reversing the $148.7 million redemption of September 30 and leaving that negative session a pause rather than a turn. The composition carries the real information. IBIT took $195.6 million while eight of the remaining funds redeemed, led by FBTC at $60.7 million and GBTC at $31.4 million. One fund carried the entire net as the rest of the complex gave back shares.

Cumulative net flow reads $57.667 billion on Farside's tally. The dashboard's supply pressure index rose to 2.7116 from 2.6728, exchange balances fell 22,419 coins over thirty days, and of six structural tripwires none are lit with one on watch.

The Bull View

• The Block: the nine-session, $3.1 billion creation streak broke on September 30, and the funds took $102.7 million straight back in on October 1
• Cointelegraph: Bitcoin reached $86,857 on Bitstamp, the highest since September 23, clearing a sell wall near $85,000 and liquidating $122 million of shorts
• StockAnalysis: MSTR closed October 1 at $160.50, up 4.84%
• crypto.news, citing Bitget Wallet's Lacie Zhang: an October range of $78,000 to $95,000 with $87,500 the breakout level, against October median returns of 11% to 14%
• Newsquawk: October hike odds fell to about 34% from 70% after the softer inflation print

The bull case leans on the order book and on the Fed, arguing that thin supply above $87,000 plus a hike markets have mostly stopped pricing clears the way for a seasonal October move.

The Bear View

• Bloomberg: Bitcoin rides the risk roller coaster as speculative bets wind down
• Cointelegraph, citing Glassnode: fund activity runs at a small fraction of the September 21 and 22 pace - https://www.google.com/url?q=http://news.bitcoin.com&source=gmail&ust=1791023696535000&sa=E, citing Glider's Brian Huang: the basis flipped while open interest rose, so shorts are adding to positions
• CoinMarketCap, citing the Bitcoin Policy Institute and JPMorgan: an MSCI index rule could force $8.8 billion of stock sales at Bitcoin treasury companies
• Fortune: Bitcoin sits 31.5% under the October 6, 2025 record of $126,198

The bear case leans on positioning and on the long end, arguing that a market whose shorts grow has thin conviction behind it, and that a 5.64% 30-year keeps pulling capital toward paper that pays. Treasury yields hold near 24-year highs going into the jobs report, which CNBC frames as the week's binding constraint.

The Hashpoint read

The spring holds its tension and gained a little of it back. At 1.33 times the floor and 0.56 times the median, Bitcoin sits in the lower quarter of its envelope after two sessions that recovered what late September gave up.

The bulls get the flow turn right and the size of it wrong. A single session of $102.7 million carried entirely by one issuer, with eight funds redeeming against it, describes a bid that narrowed rather than one that broadened. The bears get the long end right and the mechanism wrong. The 30-year at 5.64% does pull capital, but the instrument that was supposed to transmit that pull into Strategy's cost of capital just declined to do so.

That costs this publication its escalator argument for a second cycle, and the honest reading is that the repricing lag runs longer than a quarter rather than longer than a month. What survives is the funding evidence. Strategy's September 28 filing put $142.7 million into coins and $151.7 million into retiring its own preferred, which still describes a company spending half its new capital on repair work.

Monday's 8-K is the next confirming point. A filing funded from the ATM again turns the September 28 reopening into policy rather than a one-week expedient, and a filing with no STRC repurchase would mean the fifty-cent discount holds on market demand for the first time in 96 sessions. Before that, this morning's payroll print sets October hike odds going into a coupon that cannot answer until November 1.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, network state, Fear and Greed composite), Farside Investors, Federal Reserve H.15, Trading Economics, StockAnalysis, CoinWarz, CoinDesk, Newsquawk, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791023696536000&sa=E, and reporting from The Block, Bloomberg, Cointelegraph, CNBC, Fortune, CoinMarketCap and crypto.news. Nothing here is investment advice.