The Hashpoint for October 5, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 5, 2026

The two measures this publication uses to size institutional demand moved in opposite directions overnight. Supply pressure reads 1.92, down from 2.105 yesterday and 2.723 on Saturday, so Strategy and the spot ETFs together hold 1.92 coins of thirty-day buying for every coin the network issued, a 30% decline across seventy-two hours. Farside meanwhile revised Friday October 2 from $31.7 million of net creations to $189.9 million, and the entire $158.2 million difference lands on BlackRock's IBIT, a fund yesterday's edition reported as flat. Bitcoin trades at $86,007 against Sunday's close of $86,507, 1.32 times the power-law floor of $64,989 and 0.56 times the median of $154,735. One number says the bid thinned by a third in three days. The other says Friday was five times larger than anyone knew on Saturday.

ETF flows and supply pressure

Take the revision first, because it corrects this publication in print. Saturday's edition called Friday's $31.7 million a two-fund session running at 3.2% of the September 21 peak and built its bear case on that thinness. Farside's settled figure is $189.9 million, 19% of the peak, with IBIT taking $158.2 million, Fidelity $29.3 million, and no fund redeeming a dollar. Cumulative net flow now reads $57.857 billion against the $57.698 billion the dashboard carries, and the $159 million gap confirms the revision rather than contradicting it. The box ingests Farside once a day, so its flow series runs a revision behind the source on any restated session.

September closed at $2.65 billion of net creations, second only to August's $3.52 billion since October 2025. The three settled sessions before Friday read $102.7 million, negative $148.7 million, and $66.2 million.

Supply pressure fell anyway, and it fell on the unrevised series. Institutional thirty-day buying reads 25,874 coins against issuance of 13,500, down from roughly 28,400 yesterday. Exchange balances dropped 30,876 coins over those same thirty days to 2.674 million. Tripwire six, supply pressure above 3 with exchange supply falling, stays the only one of six on watch, and it moved further from firing for a third morning.

Power law and network

Price to floor reads 1.323 on this morning's spot and 1.331 on Sunday's close, with price to median at 0.556 and 0.559. Cycle position reads 0.1425 and MVRV reads 1.61 against a last-cycle peak of 2.78.

The network revised the opposite way from the flow. Hashrate reads 936 exahash per second on the October 3 observation, up 9.6% over thirty days, against the 911 and 1.0% this publication carried yesterday. CoinWarz prints 1,120 exahash live, up 5.8% in a day, which continues a pattern of daily readings too noisy to use. Difficulty holds at 132.72 trillion. The October 17 retarget now estimates 0.47% higher, to 133.33 trillion, against yesterday's 0.85% lower, so the first negative adjustment of this series looks like a one-off. Block 969,995 puts cycle four at 61.9% complete, 80,005 blocks from the April 2028 halving.

Macro and yields

The long end gave nothing back. The 10-year held 5.28% this morning, the 30-year rose a basis point to 5.62%, and the 10-year real yield reads 2.92% on October 2 against 2.88% on the H.15 line for October 1. The dollar index rose 0.24% to 102.17, a fresh high for this stretch, after Friday's 101.932 close.

CME FedWatch prices an October hold at 77.9%. December carries a 62.3% cumulative chance of a quarter point and 24.3% of a half point, so a market that took October off the table moved the hike rather than cancelled it. ISM Services lands at 10:00 this morning, and the September FOMC minutes arrive Wednesday at 2:00.

Both sentiment needles came down and the gap held. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791282961012000&sa=E, reads 65 in Greed on October 4 after 67 a day earlier and 70 a week ago. The Hashpoint structural composite reads 36 in Fear on October 3 data, down from 38. The spread stays 29 points on day 46 of the divergence, and it stays there because both needles fell together.

STRC and Strategy

STRC closed Friday at $99.41, fifty-nine cents under its $100 par and the narrowest discount of this series. That is session 97 below the line and 141 calendar days since the last close at or above it on May 14. The effective yield reads 12.071% on the $12.00 annual rate Strategy declared on July 1, and the at-the-market issuance channel stays shut. The fifty-cent payment carries an ex-dividend date of October 15 and pays October 31, with a second payment on November 15 waiting on shareholder approval at the October 28 special meeting.

Strategy's weekly filing is due this morning; an update to this edition follows when it lands. The September 28 filing stands at 847,666 coins against an aggregate cost of $63.95 billion, or $75,437 each. At this morning's print that position carries $72.90 billion and $10,570 a coin above cost. MSTR closed Friday at $160.01, down 0.31%.

Hashpoint's own analysis has held since September 9 that the monthly repricing lag strands the largest corporate Bitcoin buyer in impaired paper through moves its coupon cannot answer. November 1 is the next date that rate changes.

The Bull View

• The Block: spot Bitcoin ETFs took $2.65 billion in September, the second-best month since October 2025
• CoinDesk: September payrolls printed 29,000 with unemployment at 4.2%, and Bitcoin rose 2% to just under $87,000
• SEC: a proposed rule would let investment advisers and funds self-custody crypto assets, open for comment 60 days
• CoinGape: October hike odds fell to 17% from 80%, with 6,036 coins leaving exchanges between September 28 and October 4
• Bitcoin Magazine: Absa became the first African bank to custody Bitcoin

The bull case leans on a labor market soft enough to stop the Fed, arguing that September's $2.65 billion arrived before the rate path even turned.

The Bear View

• TokenPost: Bitcoin still sits under its $87,570 opening price for 2026 after the brief move through $87,000
• 24/7 Wall St.: reclaiming the $126,080 peak of October 6 last year requires a 46% climb, and the three prior recoveries took 28 to 38 months
• Trading Economics: the 30-year rose to 5.62% and the dollar index gained 0.24% to 102.17 on the week's friendliest rate news
• Phemex, citing CME FedWatch: December carries a 62.3% cumulative hike probability and another 24.3% for fifty basis points
• 24/7 Wall St.: Ethereum ETFs outpaced Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 inflows

The bear case leans on the curve, arguing that a market nine months into a round trip still cannot clear its own January opening price.

The Hashpoint read

The spring holds its tension and the gauge reading it lost a third of its value in three days. At 1.32 times the floor and 0.56 times the median, Bitcoin occupies the lower quarter of its envelope, where it has sat all week, while the absorption measure meant to explain that position fell from 2.72 to 1.92 across three mornings with no session of visible selling.

Read the two revisions together. Friday ran stronger than reported, at $189.9 million rather than $31.7 million, and this publication argued from the smaller figure. The supply pressure decline corrects thirty days of buying rather than one session, so it absorbs a $158 million addition to a single day without much trouble. Both hold at once.

The bulls read the rate path correctly and the transmission wrongly for a second session. An October hold at 77.9% did nothing for the 30-year, which rose anyway, and the dollar index set a fresh high on the same tape. The bears read the calendar correctly and the structure wrongly. A 46% climb to the old high is arithmetic, not evidence, and the instrument that should break under a 5.28% 10-year closed at its narrowest discount since May instead.

That last fact costs this publication something. One hundred forty-one days of a shut ATM have not stopped Strategy from buying, and the capital-pull half of the thesis needs the funding channel to bind. What survives is the lag. The coupon cannot answer September's half point in the long end until November 1, and this morning's 8-K says which pool pays for October.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, network state, Fear and Greed composite, tripwires, corporate holdings, synthesis), Farside Investors, Federal Reserve H.15, CoinGecko, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, StockAnalysis, CME FedWatch via Phemex, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791282961013000&sa=E, and reporting from The Block, CoinDesk, Decrypt, Cointelegraph, Bitcoin Magazine, TokenPost, CoinGape, 24/7 Wall St. and the SEC. Nothing here is investment advice.