The Hashpoint for October 10, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 10, 2026

Strategy's variable-rate preferred closed Friday at $99.65, thirty-four and a half cents under its $100 par and the narrowest discount of the 102 sessions it has now spent below that line. The Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard moved the instrument's issuance state from closed to marginal, the first reading other than shut since this series began keeping score on it. Bitcoin reads $82,781 this morning, 0.29% above Friday's close of $82,544.71, which puts it 1.268 times the power-law floor of $65,281 and 0.533 times the median of $155,431. Spot funds took in $21.1 million Friday after shedding $729.0 million across the two sessions before it.

STRC and Strategy

Twenty cents separated Friday's close from Thursday's $99.45, and the instrument touched $99.71 intraday, its best print since the June selloff carried it to $71.25. The run below par measures 102 consecutive sessions and 148 calendar days from the May 14 close at or above it. The yield reads 12.042% on the $12.00 annual rate Strategy declared effective July 1.

That reclassification deserves the weight of a number rather than a word. Thirty-four and a half cents stands between Strategy and an issuance channel it has not used since spring, and the company spent roughly $176.3 million of its $2.0 billion repurchase authorization in one week to close most of that distance. No 8-K arrived Friday or Saturday, so the October 5 filing still governs: 334 coins for $28.67 million at an average of $85,838.80, against that $176.3 million retiring about 1.77 million preferred shares. Holdings read 848,000 coins at an average of $75,440.70, a position of about $70.20 billion this morning that sits $7,340 a coin above cost, against $7,179 yesterday.

Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing schedule is the defect in this design, and Friday supplies the cleanest version of that argument yet. The preferred gained twenty cents through a week in which the ten-year sat at 5.24%, the real yield rose, and the funds pulled $678.9 million out across five sessions. A coupon that answers its market once a month responds to none of that.

ETF flows and supply pressure

Friday stopped the bleeding without reversing it. IBIT took $22.4 million, VanEck's HODL took $2.3 million, FBTC gave back $3.6 million, and every other fund in the complex printed a flat zero. That nets to $21.1 million against Wednesday's $484.9 million outflow and Thursday's $244.1 million. The five sessions from October 5 through October 9 total $678.9 million negative, and the cumulative figure since January 2024 stands at $57.178 billion.

The supply side softened for a third straight day, which matters more than the headline. Supply pressure dropped to 1.688 from 1.815 Friday and 2.175 Thursday, with institutional thirty-day buying at 22,782 coins against issuance of 13,500. Exchange balances read 2,665,392 coins on the October 8 observation, up 2,026 from the prior update, and the annual drain ratio eased to 0.361 from 0.384. Three consecutive declines in the demand measure alongside a slowing drain mark the first sustained softening of the supply side this series has logged.

Macro and yields

The curve gave nothing and took nothing. The ten-year finished Friday at 5.24%, flat on the session after Thursday's six basis point retreat from a twenty-four-year high near 5.35%. The two-year rose four basis points to 4.80%, the thirty-year eased to 5.60%, and the ten-year real yield read 2.90%. The dollar index closed at 102.21 for a fourth consecutive weekly gain and its highest level since April 2025. Traders price roughly 81% odds of a hold on October 27 and about 69% odds of a quarter-point hike in December. Oil came off its highs after Trump said the United States would hold off on striking Iran until after the November 3 midterms. Nothing lands on the calendar today, and Wednesday's CPI print carries the week.

Both sentiment needles fell this time. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791714665269000&sa=E, reads 59 in Greed on October 9 after 64 the day before and 72 on October 2. The Hashpoint structural composite reads 34 in Fear on October 8 after 36. That narrows the gap to 25 points from 28 yesterday and 36 when the divergence opened in August, and it narrowed because the crowd came down while the structure came down with it.

Power law and network

Price barely moved inside its band. The floor multiple reads 1.268 on spot against 1.267 yesterday, the median multiple 0.533 against 0.532, and cycle position 0.121. MVRV reads 1.534 against a last-cycle peak of 2.78. None of the dashboard's six structural tripwires lights, and the one on watch wants supply pressure above 3 against this morning's 1.69.

Hashrate reads 1,018.93 exahash per second on the October 8 observation with a three-day median of 1,024.56, up 15.6% over thirty days. Difficulty holds 132.72 trillion, the chain stands at block 970,683, and blocks arrive at 9 minutes 55 seconds. Roughly a thousand blocks remain to the retarget at height 971,712, and CoinWarz puts that adjustment near 2.86% higher to 136.51 trillion on October 16.

The Bull View

• Cointelegraph: price reclaimed $83,000 at the Wall Street open after a Thursday low of $80,350, with order-book liquidity thickening near $84,000
• Farside Investors: the funds turned positive Friday at $21.1 million, with IBIT taking $22.4 million and only FBTC redeeming
• CoinDesk: the preferred touched $99.71, its highest print since the June selloff bottomed at $71.25
• The Block, citing JPMorgan: about $50 billion has moved into digital assets this year
• Decrypt, citing Bitwise Europe: the $83,000 zone stacks the average fund cost basis on the prior higher high, making it the first real test of the bounce

The bull case leans on a bounce that held its level. Price absorbed a billion dollars of forced selling and a week of fund redemptions and still closed inside its September range.

The Bear View

• Decrypt: price hit $80,427 during the week and runs 4.1% lower over seven days, with October erasing the Uptober trade
• Bitcoin Magazine: price broke under $81,000 as oil spiked and Fed officials talked tough
• CoinDesk: about $1.19 billion of margin positions closed out Thursday
• Yahoo Finance, citing Myriad: prediction markets put 67% odds on a drop to $80,000 or lower during October and 24% on $75,000
• The Block: analysts now forecast an $80,000 to $90,000 fourth-quarter range
• BeInCrypto: today marks one year since the flash crash that cleared $19 billion of liquidations, with diesel averaging $6.41 a gallon, 73% above last year

The bear case leans on cost. A dollar at an eighteen-month high and a real yield near 2.90% price a world in which an asset paying no coupon competes badly.

The Hashpoint read

The spring took a full week of pressure and gave up one thousandth of its floor multiple. Price at 1.268 times the floor and 0.533 times the median sits where it sat yesterday, after five sessions moved $678.9 million out of the funds and the ten-year held a level last seen in 2002. A market that holds 1.26x through that much selling carries very little loose supply above its floor.

The bulls read Friday correctly and the week wrongly. A $21.1 million creation day with one fund doing all the work shows demand pausing, not demand returning. The bears read the cost of money correctly and its reach wrongly. A real yield at 2.90% and a dollar at an eighteen-month high should have broken something, and the instrument most exposed to them printed its best close in five months instead.

STRC settles the argument against both sides. Thirty-four and a half cents now separate Strategy from a reopened issuance channel, and the company bought that distance with $176.3 million of its own cash while the ten-year sat still and the funds sold. The preferred answers its treasury rather than its market, and the monthly reset guarantees it keeps doing so into November. October 15 takes it through the ex-dividend at this discount, and a slide past a dollar afterward dates the repair to the payment rather than to the buyback. Monday's filing says which pocket Strategy reached into this time. Watch the issuance state: one close at or above $100 does something to this thesis that no yield print can.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, network state, tripwires, Fear and Greed composite, synthesis), Strategy's October 5 8-K, Farside Investors, CoinGecko, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, MarketChameleon, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791714665270000&sa=E, and reporting from CoinDesk, The Block, Cointelegraph, Decrypt, Bitcoin Magazine, Yahoo Finance and BeInCrypto. Nothing here is investment advice.