The Hashpoint for October 11, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 11, 2026

Strategy held the annual rate on its variable-rate preferred at 12.00% and declared fifty-cent semi-monthly dividends for the period ending October 31 and, conditionally, the period ending November 15, according to a Simply Wall St review carried by Yahoo Finance on Saturday. That decision prices five more weeks of a coupon against a ten-year Treasury yield of 5.24% and a ten-year real yield of 2.90%, both set on Friday. STRC last closed at $99.655, thirty-four and a half cents under its $100 par and session 102 of its run below that line. Bitcoin reads $82,956.73 this morning, 0.06% above Friday's close of $82,910.80, which puts it 1.2696 times the power-law floor of $65,339 and 0.5332 times the median of $155,570.

STRC and Strategy

The declaration matters more than the close. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing schedule, not the discount itself, is the defect in this instrument's design, and a rate fixed through mid-November turns that argument from a pattern into a date. September added roughly half a point to the ten-year and October has so far added none, and the coupon answers neither until the November 1 reset. The move to daily record dates starting that day changes the payment calendar and leaves the monthly rate mechanism where it sits.

The issuance state holds at marginal for a second session. Zero of the last seven sessions and zero of the last thirty closed at or above par, and the effective yield reads 12.042% on the $12.00 declared rate that took effect July 1. Strategy filed nothing Friday, Saturday or Sunday, so the October 5 8-K still governs: 334 coins for $28,670,159 at an average of $85,838.80, set against roughly $176.3 million retiring about 1.77 million preferred shares. Holdings read 848,000 coins at a stated average of $75,440.70, a position worth $70.35 billion at this morning's print with a cushion of $7,516 a coin and $6.37 billion in total. Friday's cushion was $7,340 a coin. Monday's filing lands on Columbus Day, when the bond market closes and the SEC keeps taking filings.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The supply side gave back three days of softening in one recompute. Supply pressure reads 1.9525 this morning against 1.6875 Friday and 1.8152 Thursday, which ends the streak of declines that yesterday's edition called the first sustained softening of this series. Institutional thirty-day buying reads 26,358 coins against issuance of 13,500, up 3,576 coins from Friday's figure. The same demand against half the issuance would read 3.905.

The drain figures moved the other way and deserve the qualification. Exchange balances read 2,672,866 coins on the October 9 observation, 7,474 higher than the prior reading, the thirty-day change eased to a net 33,397 coins leaving against 38,816, and the annual drain ratio fell to 0.285 from 0.361. So demand against issuance rose while coins came back onto exchanges, which is a more mixed picture than either number carries alone.

October 9 remains the last settled session at $21.1 million positive, with IBIT supplying $22.4 million, VanEck's HODL $2.3 million, FBTC redeeming $3.6 million, and every other fund printing a flat zero. The five sessions from October 5 run $678.9 million negative. Cumulative flow since January 2024 stands at $57.178 billion. Ether funds logged a ninth straight outflow day at $56.1 million.

Macro and yields

Nothing settled over the weekend, which leaves Friday's levels standing into a heavy week. The ten-year reads 5.24%, the two-year 4.80%, the thirty-year 5.60%, and the ten-year real yield 2.90%. The dollar index closed at 102.22 for a fourth consecutive weekly gain and its highest level since April 2025. Traders price roughly 18% odds of a hike on October 28 and 82% odds of one in December, and the minutes released October 7 showed most officials treating another increase as likely appropriate by year end.

Wednesday's September CPI print at 8:30 Eastern carries the week, with consensus near 3.6% to 3.7% headline against August's 3.4% and core near 2.5%. Thursday brings PPI, retail sales and claims. Friday brings a Warsh speech and a Deribit expiry covering about $1.25 billion of Bitcoin options. Monday closes the bond market for Columbus Day.

The two sentiment needles split again. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791800895730000&sa=E, rose five points to 64 in Greed on October 10 after 59 the day before and 67 a week ago. The Hashpoint structural composite rose one point to 35 in Fear on October 9. That reopens the gap to 29 points from the 25 this publication reported yesterday, and it widened from the mood side alone, which reverses the joint decline that made Friday notable. Components read MVRV 39.7, band position 13.5, thirty-day return 55.7, and ninety-day realized cap growth 32.7.

Power law and network

Price sat still for a second weekend session. The floor multiple reads 1.2696 against 1.268 yesterday, the median multiple 0.5332, and cycle position 0.1211 on Friday's close. CoinGecko puts the twenty-four hour range at $82,713 to $83,135, a $422 spread against Thursday's $3,136. MVRV reads 1.5408 against the last cycle's peak of 2.78. None of the six structural tripwires lights, and the one on watch wants supply pressure above 3 against this morning's 1.95.

The raw hashrate observation for October 9 prints 916.13 exahash per second against a three-day median of 1,018.93, and the thirty-day change now reads plus 6.79% against the 15.6% Friday carried. Difficulty holds 132.72 trillion, the chain stands at block 970,832 on the box count and 970,907 at CoinWarz, and blocks arrive at 9 minutes 28 seconds against a ten-minute target. CoinWarz puts the October 16 retarget at 3.27% higher to 137.05 trillion, revised up from Friday's 2.86% estimate. Block 970,832 puts cycle four at 62.3% complete with 79,168 blocks to the next halving.

The Bull View

• CoinCentral: the funds turned positive October 9 at $21.1 million, with IBIT supplying $22.4 million of it
• CryptoTicker: price trades above its 30, 50, 90 and 200-day moving averages and beat every major altcoin on the week
• Nexo, citing QCP: the fourth-quarter base case runs $80,000 to $90,000 with upside above $100,000
• BeInCrypto, citing Michael van de Poppe: an organic correction retesting a prior consolidation zone, a level he would buy
• BeInCrypto: Thursday's liquidation wave ran about one nineteenth of last October's figure
• Nexo: jobless claims fell to 197,000, the lowest since July

The bull case leans on a market that stopped moving. Price held an $82,700 floor through the anniversary weekend with daily ranges under a percent, and the funds printed a creation day at the end of a losing week.

The Bear View

• KuCoin: price sits about 34% under the 2025 high as the October 11 crash passes its first anniversary, with total crypto cap at $2.81 trillion against $3 trillion a year ago
• BeInCrypto: more than $1 billion closed out in twenty-four hours as price hit $80,393 Thursday, $930 million of it longs and the largest long-side wipeout in ninety days
• BeInCrypto, citing Glassnode: existing holders carried the last rally while fund, stablecoin and corporate treasury inflows shrank
• CryptoTicker: price trades below its 7, 15 and 20-day moving averages on volume under its thirty-day average
• Nexo, citing Musalem: further tightening is needed to reach 2% inflation, with rates possibly rising over six to nine months
• CoinCentral: Ether funds logged a ninth consecutive outflow day at $56.1 million

The bear case leans on an anniversary and a coupon. Twelve months after $19 billion of liquidations, the asset trades a third under that week's high while cash pays 5.24% without taking the risk.

The Hashpoint read

The spring spent the weekend exactly where it spent Friday. Price at 1.2696 times the floor and 0.5332 times the median moved four ten-thousandths in a session, inside a $422 range, on the first anniversary of the largest liquidation day in this market's history. A market that cannot generate a one-percent daily range after a week of fund redemptions and a 24-year high in the ten-year is storing something rather than discharging it.

The bulls read the calm as a floor and the bears read it as exhaustion. Both skip the number that moved. Supply pressure jumped from 1.6875 to 1.9525 in a single recompute while coins flowed back onto exchanges, so the demand measure and the drain measure now point opposite ways. One day does not settle which one leads, and this publication will not pretend it does.

STRC carries the week. Strategy fixed its coupon at 12.00% through the period ending November 15 while the curve held a level last seen in 2002, and the instrument sits thirty-four and a half cents from par on $176.3 million of corporate cash rather than on any repricing. That is the lag argument stated in the company's own declaration rather than in this publication's inference. Three dates test it. October 15 takes the preferred through its ex-dividend at this discount, and a slide past a dollar afterward dates the repair to the payment. Monday's 8-K says which pocket funded the week. Wednesday's CPI at 3.7% headline would push the curve into a coupon that cannot answer until November 1, and the issuance state remains the marker that counts: one close at or above $100 does more to this thesis than any yield print.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, supply shock, network state, tripwires, Fear and Greed composite, synthesis), Strategy's October 5 8-K, Farside Investors, CoinGecko, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791800895731000&sa=E, and reporting from Yahoo Finance, KuCoin, CoinCentral, CryptoTicker, BeInCrypto and Nexo. Nothing here is investment advice.