The Hashpoint for October 12, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 12, 2026

Strategy raised $5.41 billion selling new common shares in the third quarter and directed 9.5% of that money, roughly $514 million, into Bitcoin, according to filings analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera in work Cointelegraph carried Sunday. The company's coin count rose 1,666 over the same three months, to 848,000. Bitcoin reads $83,431.27 this morning against Sunday's close of $83,678.29, which puts it 1.2757 times the power-law floor of $65,398 and 0.5358 times the median of $155,710. The Treasury market closes today for Columbus Day, so the ten-year yield that carries half this publication's thesis cannot print a new number until Tuesday.

STRC and Strategy

That 9.5% figure does more for the throttle argument than any week of 8-K arithmetic. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing schedule on Strategy's variable-rate preferred, and not the discount itself, throttles the company's accumulation rate. A quarter in which the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin raised $5.41 billion and moved one dollar in eleven into coins states that constraint as a capital allocation decision rather than a funding shortage. The rest went to a dollar reserve, cash, dividends and preferred buybacks.

The instrument sits where it sat Friday. STRC last closed at $99.655 on October 9, thirty-four and a half cents under its $100 par, session 102 below that line and calendar day 148 since the last close at or above it. The effective yield reads 12.042% on the $12.00 declared annual rate, which Strategy held for October with fifty-cent semi-monthly dividends declared through October 31 and conditionally through November 15.

KuCoin adds the mechanical consequence. STRC traded between $99.43 and $99.66 across the five sessions ending October 9, which placed it in the designated buyback zone and restricted new issuance, and the company bought exactly 0.00 Bitcoin through that channel in the period. STRF closed at $103.98, above its own par, and stands as the open funding window. Strategy filed nothing over the weekend, so the October 5 8-K still governs: 334 coins for $28,670,159 at an average of $85,838.80, against about $176.3 million retiring roughly 1.77 million preferred shares. Strategy's weekly filing is due this morning; an update to this edition follows when it lands. Cointelegraph expects it no earlier than Tuesday, since federal offices close today.

Holdings read 848,000 coins at a stated average of $75,440.70, a position worth $70.75 billion at this morning's print with a cushion of $7,990 a coin. Michael Saylor posted a treasury chart with 117 purchase markers Sunday under the caption "There's always room for more orange," and named no amount, no funding source and no date.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds had their worst week since June and price went up anyway. The five sessions from October 5 ran $678.9 million negative on the Farside series and $681 million negative on SoSoValue's, with the damage in Wednesday's $484.9 million and Thursday's $244.1 million. October 9 remains the last settled session at $21.1 million positive, built from IBIT's $22.4 million against FBTC's $3.6 million of redemptions. Cumulative flow since January 2024 stands at $57.1777 billion, and IBIT's coin count rose 5,502 over seven days to 806,037.

Supply pressure barely moved, holding 1.9483 against 1.9525 Sunday, with institutional thirty-day buying at 26,302 coins against issuance of 13,500. The drain measures eased for a second day. Exchange balances read 2,673,673 coins on the October 10 observation, 806 higher, and the annual drain ratio fell to 0.2771 from 0.285. The demand measure holds near a two-week high while coins keep returning to exchanges, which gives this publication two days of the same contradiction rather than one recompute.

Macro and yields

Nothing in the rates complex can move today. SIFMA closed the cash Treasury market for Columbus Day and no federal release lands. Friday's levels stand: the ten-year at 5.24%, the two-year at 4.80%, the thirty-year at 5.60%, and the ten-year real yield at 2.90% after a four basis point rise. The dollar index reads 102.39 and keeps a fourth straight weekly gain at its highest since April 2025. Traders price an 18.8% chance of a hike on October 28 and roughly 86% odds of one in December.

Wednesday's September CPI at 8:30 Eastern carries the week. Waller speaks Tuesday, PPI and retail sales and claims land Thursday, and Warsh speaks at the IMF meetings Friday alongside the difficulty retarget. Crude gave ground on a Russian diesel supply deal, with WTI at $90.28 on CoinDesk's print and $92.58 on Benzinga's premarket read.

The two sentiment needles converged for the first time in this series. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791887486793000&sa=E, fell three points to 61 in Greed on October 11 after 64 the day before. The Hashpoint structural composite rose two points to 37 in Fear on October 10. The gap narrows to 24 points from 29, and both needles moved toward each other, which no prior session in this record did. Components read MVRV 40.2, band position 14.0, thirty-day return 61.6, and ninety-day realized cap growth 32.7. The live mood print today reads 69, so the convergence may not survive the session.

Power law and network

Sunday's close of $83,678.29 marked a 0.93% rise on Saturday's $82,910.80, and spot slipped 0.3% from there by six o'clock this morning before CoinDesk logged $84,050. The floor multiple reads 1.2757 against 1.2696 yesterday, the median multiple 0.5358, and cycle position 0.1239. CoinGecko puts the week 2.4% lower and CryptoTimes 3.3% lower. MVRV reads 1.5547 against the last cycle's peak of 2.78, and none of the six structural tripwires lights.

The network reversed its own revision. The October 11 hashrate observation prints 1,028.59 exahash per second with a three-day median of 1,024.76, against the 916 the Sunday email carried. Difficulty holds 132.716 trillion, the chain stands at block 970,987, and blocks arrive at 9 minutes 20 seconds against a ten-minute target. CoinWarz puts Friday's retarget at 4.11% higher to 138.17 trillion, revised up from Sunday's 3.27% estimate. That block height puts cycle four at 62.4% complete with 79,013 blocks to the next halving.

The Bull View

• CoinDesk: price held above $84,000 through $681 million of weekly fund outflows while WTI fell 1.8% to $90.28
• CryptoTimes: shorts supplied $39.6 million of $46.7 million in twenty-four hour liquidations as price retook $84,000
• Cointelegraph: Saylor teased further buying Sunday on a chart carrying 117 purchase markers against holdings of 848,000 coins
• KuCoin: Strategy's stack sits about $7,990 a coin above its stated average and holds 4.04% of total supply
• AMBCrypto: fourth quarters have averaged above 71% historically, with more than half of that arriving in October and November
• Benzinga: equity futures opened higher with October hike odds at 18.8%

The bull case leans on a market that absorbed a bad week without breaking. Price took $681 million of redemptions and still printed a higher Sunday close, and the short side paid for the bounce.

The Bear View

• AMBCrypto: $681 million left the funds last week, the largest weekly outflow in over three months, against one $21.1 million creation day
• CoinDesk, citing BitDelta's Purvang Mashru: Treasury yields reached 24-year highs in the week to October 9
• CryptoTimes: price trades 3.3% lower on the week with $87,000 named as resistance and a 1.55 top-trader long ratio
• KuCoin: rebound momentum is weakening, with $83,200 to $83,400 the support zone to watch
• Benzinga, citing Mohamed El-Erian: a hot CPI print risks bond volatility and credit strain against a deficit near 6% of gross domestic product
• KuCoin: a supply-chain attack on Ledger devices sold through distributor CryptoBilis has cost holders more than $86 million

The bear case leans on the cost of waiting. Cash pays 5.24% without taking duration risk in the coin, the funds took their largest weekly withdrawal since June, and Wednesday's inflation print can push the curve higher before the coupon on the largest corporate bid can answer.

The Hashpoint read

Today removes a variable, and that makes the session worth reading. The bond market closes, so the ten-year holds 5.24% by rule rather than by consent, and whatever price does over the next six hours happens with the capital-pull channel unplugged. Bitcoin enters that session at 1.2757 times the floor and 0.5358 times the median, higher on both measures than Sunday, after a week that pulled $681 million out of the funds.

The bulls read Friday's $21.1 million creation and the weekend's firmness as the end of the outflow. The bears read a 3.3% weekly loss and a 24-year high in yields as the start of something worse. Neither reads the number that landed Sunday. Strategy raised $5.41 billion last quarter and put 9.5% of it into Bitcoin, which answers in the company's own filings the question this publication has asked since September. The accumulation rate is not starved for capital. It is spending that capital on its own paper, and the preferred spent the first week of October inside a buyback band that produced zero coins through that channel.

Three dates test it. Tuesday's filing says which pocket funded the week. Wednesday's CPI near 3.7% headline would push the curve into a coupon fixed through November 15. The issuance state stays the marker that counts, and it has read marginal for two sessions at a thirty-four cent discount: one close at or above $100 reopens the channel and takes the machinery out of this argument, and a slide back under $99.00 dates the whole repair to $176.3 million of corporate cash.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, supply shock, network state, tripwires, Fear and Greed composite, synthesis), Strategy's October 5 8-K, Farside Investors, SoSoValue, CoinGecko, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791887486793000&sa=E, and reporting from Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, KuCoin, CryptoTimes, AMBCrypto, Cryptobriefing, Benzinga, InvestingLive and Bitcoin.com. Nothing here is investment advice.