The Hashpoint for October 13, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 13, 2026

Strategy sent $192.4 million to its own preferred stock last week and $21.5 million to Bitcoin, a ratio of $8.95 to one dollar. The 250 coins the company bought at an average of $86,194 make its smallest weekly purchase of 2026, down 85% from the 1,665 it took two weeks earlier. STRC closed Monday at $99.88, twelve cents under its $100 par and the narrowest discount in a run that now spans 103 sessions. Bitcoin reads $83,493 this morning, 1.2755 times the power-law floor of $65,457 and 0.5357 times the median of $155,849.

STRC and Strategy

The September 28 filing put $1.06 into the preferred for every dollar into coins. The October 5 filing moved that to $6.15. Monday's puts it at $8.95, and the coin side of the ledger has shrunk four weeks running.

The repair worked in price terms. Strategy bought 1,932,145 STRC shares at an average near $99.58, and the instrument finished twelve cents under par against thirty-four and a half cents on Friday. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing schedule on this variable-rate preferred, and not the size of the discount, throttles the company's accumulation rate. A week spending nine dollars on the paper for every dollar on the asset states that argument in the company's own numbers.

Funding came out of the equity window rather than the vault. Strategy sold 125,183 MSTR Class A shares for about $21.0 million and added $500,000 of cash to cover the coin purchase, leaving $18.8 billion of at-the-market capacity as of October 11. BigGo puts the premium to net asset value near 1.1 times against roughly 3 times in 2024, which is the arithmetic behind a $5.41 billion quarterly raise converting into 1,666 coins. Repurchase capacity for the preferred fell to $354.8 million from $547.2 million, so five more weeks at Monday's pace exhausts the authorization.

Holdings read 848,250 coins at a stated average of $75,444, a position worth $70.75 billion at this morning's print with a cushion near $8,049 a coin. USD Reserve stands at $4.88 billion and USD Cash at $640.5 million. The effective yield reads 12.014% on the $12.00 declared rate, and the issuance state reads marginal for a third session.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds gave back a little more. October 12 settles at $65.4 million negative, and IBIT carried every dollar of it while every other fund printed zero. That follows $21.1 million positive on October 9, $244.1 million negative on October 8 and $484.9 million negative on October 7. The week to October 9 ran $678.9 million negative on the Farside series, which CoinDesk reports as the largest weekly withdrawal since June. Cumulative flow stands at $57.112 billion.

Supply pressure moved the other way again, reading 1.9892 against 1.9483 on Monday, with institutional thirty-day buying of 26,855 coins against issuance of 13,500. Exchange balances read 2,674,829 coins on the October 11 observation, 1,156 higher than the prior read, while the annual drain ratio firmed to 0.2902 from 0.2771. A third straight session of rising demand against coins returning to exchanges makes this a feature of the data rather than a recompute.

Macro and yields

The curve reopened and eased. The ten-year fell about five basis points to 5.19%, the two-year two points to 4.77%, and the thirty-year four points to 5.55%, with a tech-led equity selloff and softer crude behind the move. The ten-year real yield reads 2.86% on Trading Economics' dated field, though the same page's prose still cites 2.90% from October 9. The dollar index gave back 0.25% to 102.33 after an eighteen-month high near 102.6 on Monday. Traders price a 19% chance of a hike on October 28 and 72% odds of one in December.

Wednesday's September CPI at 8:30 Eastern decides the week. Today brings September existing home sales at 10:00 and the OPEC monthly report, and Warsh sits with the IMF managing director Thursday night.

The two sentiment needles separated again, exactly as Monday's edition said they might. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791973920457000&sa=E, jumped to 69 in Greed on October 12 from 61 the day before, while the Hashpoint structural composite rose a point to 38 in Fear on October 11. The gap widens to 31 points from 24, so Sunday's two-sided convergence lasted a single session. KuCoin puts the live mood print at 57 this morning, so the needle that climbed fastest has already started back down.

Power law and network

Monday's session closed at $81,742.50, down 2.3% from Sunday's $83,678.29, and spot recovered 2.14% from there by six o'clock this morning. CoinGecko puts the twenty-four hour low at $81,017.87 against a high of $84,074.32 and the week 2.4% lower. The floor multiple reads 1.2755 and the median multiple 0.5357, within a cent of Monday's 1.2757 and 0.5358, so a 2.3% drawdown and a 2.14% recovery cancelled to nothing against the bands. Cycle position holds 0.1238 and none of the six structural tripwires lights.

The network cooled off its own high. The October 12 hashrate observation prints 999.34 exahash per second against 1,028.59 on October 11, with a three-day median of 1,024.76. Difficulty holds 132.716 trillion, the chain stands at block 971,228, and blocks arrive at 9 minutes 9 seconds. CoinWarz cut Friday's retarget estimate to 3.73% higher at 137.67 trillion from 4.11% yesterday, and that height puts cycle four at 62.45% complete with 78,856 blocks to the halving.

The Bull View

• The Block: Strategy added 250 more coins to reach 848,250, a stack worth about $70.6 billion
• CoinGape: MSTR rose on the filing, with Saylor confirming $5.5 billion of USD assets and $1.0 billion left on the common buyback
• GuruFocus: yields fell across the curve, the ten-year to 5.19% and the thirty-year to 5.55%
• Trading Economics: the dollar index slipped 0.25% to 102.33 off an eighteen-month high as yields and crude eased
• Trading Economics: the ten-year retreated from its 24-year high with October hike odds down to 19%
• CoinDesk: nine of the top ten coins advanced over twenty-four hours, with AVAX, NEAR, FIL and ZRO up 8% to 12%
• Invezz: TD Cowen held its $260 target on MSTR and lifted its Bitcoin forecast to about $109,000 by year end

The bull case leans on a curve that finally gave something back. Rates fell at every maturity on the first open session since Friday, and price recovered 2.14% from Monday's close while the funds still redeemed.

The Bear View

• BigGo Finance: Strategy's coin spending fell 85% while a $192.4 million preferred buyback ran roughly nine times the coin outlay
• Stocktwits: the 250-coin purchase is Strategy's smallest of 2026
• CoinDesk: spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $681 million last week, their largest weekly withdrawal since June
• KuCoin: $672 million of crypto liquidations over twenty-four hours, $586 million of that in longs, after Hammack sounded hawkish
• Bitcoin.com: Bitfinex counts 1.45 million coins with a cost basis between $84,000 and $86,500 and names $81,300 as the level to hold
• Bitcoin.com: supply in profit reads 69.6%, under the 75% that has accompanied sustained rallies
• InvestingLive: a hot core print Wednesday would reprice October hike odds against the coin

The bear case leans on overhead supply and a buyer who has nearly stopped buying. Monday's $81,018 low tested a level Bitfinex flagged in advance, and 1.45 million coins sit at a small loss just above the market.

The Hashpoint read

Twelve cents. That is the distance between STRC and the line that reopens Strategy's issuance channel, and it cost $192.4 million in one week to close the gap from thirty-four and a half cents. Bitcoin enters the session at 1.2755 times the floor and 0.5357 times the median, unchanged from Monday after a 2.3% fall and a 2.14% bounce.

The bulls read a five basis point drop in the ten-year and a 2.14% recovery as the curve releasing its grip. They have one session of evidence and a CPI print tomorrow. The bears read an 85% collapse in weekly accumulation as the end of the corporate bid. They have the direction right and the cause wrong, because Strategy sold shares to fund the purchase it did make and left $18.8 billion of equity capacity untouched.

Neither side reads the ratio. This publication has watched it go $2.30, then $1.06, then $6.15, and now $8.95 of preferred defense per dollar of Bitcoin. A company with $5.5 billion of cash and an open equity window chose to spend nine tenths of last week's outlay holding a $100 reference price on paper that cannot reprice until November 1. That is the throttle, measured in dollars.

Two markers carry into Wednesday. One STRC close at or above $100 reopens the issuance channel, and twelve cents makes that the nearest test this series has set; a slide back under $99.50 on a flat ten-year dates the whole repair to $192.4 million of equity proceeds and cash. The second lands at 8:30 Eastern tomorrow, where a September headline near 3.7% pushes the curve into a coupon fixed through November 15 and a buyback with $354.8 million left in it.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, supply shock, network state, tripwires, Fear and Greed composite, synthesis), Strategy's October 12 release, Farside Investors, SoSoValue, CoinGecko, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, GuruFocus, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1791973920457000&sa=E, and reporting from The Block, CoinDesk, KuCoin, Invezz, CoinGape, BigGo Finance, Stocktwits, Bitcoin.com, BitcoinTreasuries and InvestingLive. Nothing here is investment advice.