The Hashpoint for October 18, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 18, 2026

The box counts the spot funds as taking 1.96 times the Bitcoin the network mints each day, and six sessions in September carry that entire figure. Its thirty-day window runs September 18 to October 16 and nets $2.15 billion. September 18 and the week of September 21 alone supplied $2.82 billion of it. Strip those six days and the funds have redeemed a net $666 million since September 28, roughly 390 coins a day against the 450 mined. Bitcoin traded at $82,075 this morning, up 0.7% on the day and down 1.1% on the week, 1.248 times the power-law floor of $65,751 and 0.524 times the median of $156,549.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds last reported on Friday, a $82.4 million redemption led by IBIT at $71.8 million and FBTC at $10.6 million. The week closed $228.4 million negative. Farside puts cumulative net flow at $56.949 billion, with IBIT at $65.568 billion and GBTC at minus $27.944 billion.

The window explains the gap between the headline and the tape. Each morning it drops one day from the back and adds one at the front. This morning it dropped September 17's $159.5 million creation and added Friday's outflow, and the ratio fell to 1.96 from 2.18. Monday's run drops September 18's $433 million. On a flat Monday the ratio falls to about 1.57, and by late October the September week has rolled out entirely.

Supply pressure, which counts Strategy and the funds against issuance, fell to 2.196 from 2.413. Exchange balances read 2,677,737 coins on October 16, down 37,906 over thirty days.

STRC and Strategy

The preferred has not traded since Friday's $97.72 close, $1.81 below Thursday's $99.53 and $2.28 under par. That reads 107 sessions below par and 157 calendar days since the last close at or above $100 on May 14. Effective yield runs 12.28% on the 12.00% coupon Strategy held for November. The box reads issuance as closed.

The weekend shows the lag in its plainest form. Bitcoin traded two full days and rose about 0.7% from Friday's close. STRC cannot move until Monday, and its coupon cannot move until the December declaration. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that this monthly schedule leaves the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time rate would.

Strategy filed nothing over the weekend. Holdings stand at 848,250 coins at a stated $75,444 a coin, $64.0 billion in cost, from the October 13 filing. The common closed Friday at $136.83, down 9.56% on MSCI's rule.

Macro and yields

The ten-year closed Friday at 5.09%, 15 basis points under the 5.24% of October 9. The two-year eased to 4.72% and the thirty-year read 5.43%. The real yield rose 2 basis points to 2.77%, by Trading Economics' account. The dollar index fell 0.7% to 101.84 on Friday, its first weekly loss after three gains.

The week ahead runs light. Building permits land Tuesday, jobless claims Thursday and flash PMIs Friday, and Newsquawk lists no Fed speakers before the October 28 decision. Strategy's common holders vote on daily dividends the same day.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792405560305000&sa=E, fell to 55 in Greed from 63. The Hashpoint structural composite reads 36 in Fear, so the gap narrowed to 19 points from 26.

Power law and network

Saturday closed at $81,378, down 0.15%, and held above $80,000 at the close for a second day. CoinWarz reads difficulty at 140.58 trillion and estimates a 6.18% rise to 149.26 trillion on October 29, with blocks arriving every 9 minutes 25 seconds. The box reads hashrate at 943 exahash per second, 998 on a three-day median, up 5.3% over thirty days. Block 971,977 puts cycle four at 62.8% complete, 78,023 blocks from the halving.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's own data. If the funds keep the last thirty days' pace, they take 882 coins a day, 1.96 times the 450 mined, and would absorb 100,000 coins in 113 days (as of the October 16 flows and the October 17 price).

Yesterday the same scenario read 979 coins, 2.18 times and 102 days. Friday's outflow and the dropped September 17 creation account for the whole move. For the if-clause to hold through October, the funds need fresh creations near $100 million a session to replace the September week as it rolls out. The yield-shock scenario offers the thesis little support: the ninety-day link between the ten-year and Bitcoin reads weak, with an r-squared of 0.044 across 62 sessions.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	882 BTC a day, 1.96x issuance, 113
days to 100,000	Was 979, 2.18x, 102 days
STRC to par	Pace holds at -$0.169 a session	Never reaches par; rule
reads 12.25%	No session; unchanged
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -2.5%, r-squared 0.044, n 62
Was -2.35%, 0.039, n 63
Power-law clock	BTC holds $81,378	Floor meets price June 17, 2027,
243 days	Was 246 days on $81,500
Strategy cushion	BTC at $81,378	7.9% above cost; halves at $78,414
Was 8.0%, $78,475
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Family median $102,465, gap -20.6%
Was $102,527, -20.5%, same models

The Bull View

• Bitcoin Magazine: CoinShares' James Butterfill called the setup "difficult" but not "fundamentally bearish," with the coin back above its 365-day average
• Cointelegraph: CryptoQuant sees room to reclaim a 20-month trend line, with price steady near $82,000 after Warsh avoided hike hints
• Bitcoin.com: CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju puts an on-chain floor near $30,000 on $58 billion of ETF inflows and 1.3 million treasury coins
• 24/7 Wall St: October closed green in seven of the last nine years, and a 4.1% gain restores the $84,856 October open
• Decrypt: Bitcoin bounced to $82,295 after its first dip under $80,000 in more than a month
• Trading Economics: the dollar index fell 0.7% to 101.84, its first weekly loss after three gains

The bull case leans on resilience: a coin that held $80,000 through a 9.56% loss in its largest corporate holder.

The Bear View

• Bitcoin.com: Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone sees $10,000 if U.S. stocks fall 20%
• 24/7 Wall St: Bitcoin sits 4% under its October 1 open of $84,856, on course for a second straight red October
• Bitcoin News Digest: oil above $100 and an AI credit scare pulled the coin back toward $80,000 on Friday
• Farside Investors: the funds redeemed $82.4 million Friday and $228.4 million on the week
• Decrypt: crypto firms formed a quantum alliance on warnings that about 6 million coins sit exposed
• Cointelegraph: Capital B booked a $78 million first-half loss on a Bitcoin impairment charge

The bear case leans on macro spillover and on ETF demand that has turned net negative since late September.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.248 times its floor and 0.524 times its median, inside the lower decile of the band. The spring has not moved on the weekend, but one of its supports has thinned.

The bulls have the price right. The coin held $80,000 on both closes since Thursday while the Nasdaq 100 fund lost 5.5% over five sessions and Strategy's common lost nearly a tenth. They lean too hard on the ETF ledger. The $56.9 billion cumulative figure and the 1.96 times issuance both rest on September, and the funds have redeemed $666 million since.

The bears have the flow right and the rate wrong. The ten-year fell 15 basis points on the week, the dollar weakened and the ninety-day yield link reads weak, so the capital-pull half of the thesis explains little of October. The lag half explains more: STRC holds a coupon fixed on a $99.53 print while it trades at $97.72.

Three markers carry into Monday. A flat Monday cuts the absorption ratio to about 1.57 as September 18 rolls out, so a creation above $100 million says new money has started to replace the September week. STRC's $97.07 September 16 close remains the line where MSCI starts to reprice the preferred itself. A Monday filing at the reduced common price, with or without STRC repurchases, says which side of the balance sheet Strategy funds first.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, exchange balances, network state, Daily Experiment, Fear and Greed composite, synthesis), Farside Investors, CoinGecko, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, Federal Reserve H.15, Newsquawk, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792405560305000&sa=E, and reporting from Bitcoin Magazine, Cointelegraph, Decrypt, Bitcoin.com, 24/7 Wall St and Bitcoin News Digest. Nothing here is investment advice.