The Hashpoint for October 19, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 19, 2026

Update: Strategy's week

Added 8:15 AM ET after Strategy's weekly filing.

From October 12 through October 18, Strategy bought 267 bitcoin for $22.1 million, an average of $82,900 a coin. It now holds 848,517 coins at an aggregate cost of $64.02 billion, or $75,446 a coin.

How the week was paid for:

• Common stock: 140,872 MSTR shares sold for $22.0 million in net proceeds.
• Preferred stock sales: none.
• USD Cash: $100,000 to bitcoin and $193.1 million to preferred repurchases.

Preferred repurchases:

• STRC: 1,938,780 shares retired for $193.1 million.
• $1.16 billion of the preferred repurchase authorization remains.

Preferred repurchases took $8.74 for every $1.00 that went into bitcoin.

The box's supply pressure index fell to 1.79 from 2.20 overnight, and no fund redeemed a coin to cause it. The thirty-day window dropped September 18's $433.0 million creation, the first day of the September run to roll out. The next one carries more weight: on Thursday the window drops September 21's $998.95 million, the largest single creation of the autumn. Bitcoin traded at $82,786 this morning on Coinbase, up 0.95% from Sunday's $82,007 close, 1.258 times the power-law floor of $65,810 and 0.528 times the median of $156,690.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds have not reported since Friday's $82.4 million redemption, IBIT $71.8 million of it and FBTC $10.6 million, with no fund creating. The week of October 12 closed $228.4 million negative, and KuCoin counts $681.1 million out the week before. Farside puts cumulative net flow at $56.949 billion.

Supply pressure counts Strategy and the funds against thirty days of issuance. At 1.79 it still reads above one, and the box doubles it to 3.58 against post-halving issuance. That figure now rests on five September sessions: September 21 through 25 created $2.39 billion, more than the window's entire $1.72 billion net. The window drops one of them each morning from Thursday through next Monday.

Exchange balances read 2,679,804 coins on October 17, down 37,437 over thirty days. The box's sixth tripwire, supply pressure above 3 with exchange supply falling, sits on watch.

STRC and Strategy

The preferred has not traded since Friday's $97.72 close, unchanged from the prior run's print and $1.81 below Thursday's $99.53. The discount reads $2.28. The box counts 107 sessions below par and 155 calendar days from the last close at or above $100 on May 14 to Friday's close. Effective yield runs 12.28% on the 12.00% November rate, and the box reads issuance as closed.

Strategy paid fifty cents on October 15, and the next fifty-cent payment falls October 31. Common holders vote October 28 on moving to daily payments from November 2. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing schedule leaves the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time rate would, and the weekend showed it again: Bitcoin gained about 1.6% from Friday's close while STRC's coupon stays fixed until the December declaration.

Strategy's weekly filing is due this morning; an update to this edition follows when it lands. Holdings stand at 848,250 coins at a stated $75,444, $64.0 billion in cost, from the October 13 filing.

Macro and yields

The ten-year slipped toward 5.06% this morning by Trading Economics' account, near four-week lows, after closing Friday at 5.09%. The two-year reads 4.74% and the thirty-year 5.43%. The real yield sits at 2.73% against the 2.91% of October 9. The dollar index rose 0.10% to 101.94 on a weaker euro.

The Fed entered its blackout on Saturday and stays silent until the October 27 to 28 meeting, where Trading Economics puts the odds of no change near 84%. No major U.S. release lands today. Housing starts come Tuesday, jobless claims Thursday, and flash PMIs plus the final Michigan sentiment Friday, where the preliminary read showed one-year inflation expectations at 4.7%.

The crowd cooled further. Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792491652582000&sa=E, fell to 53 in Neutral from 55, and read 61 a week ago. The Hashpoint structural composite holds at 36 in Fear, so the gap narrowed to 17 points.

Power law and network

Sunday closed at $82,007, up 0.77%, the third straight close above $80,000. Cycle position reads 0.108 and MVRV 1.52. CoinWarz reads difficulty at 140.58 trillion and estimates a 4.96% rise to 147.55 trillion on October 29, down from Sunday's 6.18% estimate, with blocks arriving every 9 minutes 32 seconds. The box reads hashrate at 1,009.5 exahash per second on a three-day median, up 16.3% over thirty days. The box counts 77,936 blocks to the halving, cycle four 62.9% complete.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's own data. The box featured ETF absorption for a second day, and what moved is the window itself. If the funds keep the last thirty days' pace, they take 699 coins a day, 1.55 times the 450 mined, and would absorb 100,000 coins in 143 days (as of the October 16 flows and the October 18 price).

The entire move from yesterday's 1.96 comes from September 18 leaving the window, $433.0 million to the dollar. Thursday's run drops September 21. On flat flows that cuts the ratio to about 0.65, and once all five September sessions roll out the same arithmetic turns it negative, near minus 0.60. For the if-clause to hold, the funds need fresh creations near $100 million a session starting with today's print. The ten-year offers the thesis little here: the ninety-day link to Bitcoin reads weak, an r-squared of 0.047 across 61 sessions.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	699 BTC a day, 1.55x issuance, 143
days to 100,000	Was 882, 1.96x, 113 days
STRC to par	Pace holds at -$0.169 a session	Never reaches par; rule
reads 12.25%	No session; unchanged
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -2.57%, r-squared 0.047, n 61
Was -2.5%, 0.044, n 62
Power-law clock	BTC holds $82,007	Floor meets price June 26, 2027,
251 days	Was 243 days on $81,378
Strategy cushion	BTC at $82,007	8.7% above cost; halves at $78,728
Was 7.9%, $78,414
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Family median $103,066, gap -20.4%
Was $102,465, -20.6%, same models

The Bull View

• Bloomberg: Bitcoin rebounded above $82,000 as a retreat in oil lifted risk appetite
• Crypto Times: Michael Saylor posted "We found room for more orange" on Sunday, with Strategy at 848,250 coins
• Trading Economics: the ten-year slipped toward 5.06%, near four-week lows, with about 84% odds of no October hike
• Bitcoin News Digest: Charles Schwab opened Bitcoin trading to all eligible clients across $13.33 trillion in client assets
• CoinMarketCap: coins held six to twelve months fell to 4.4% of exchange transfers from 40.4% in June
• CoinDesk: Bitwise sees room for a return above $100,000 before year-end

The bull case leans on a softer curve and on holders who have stopped sending coins to exchanges.

The Bear View

• Decrypt: spot funds shed nearly $1 billion in two weeks as October stays red
• Bitcoin.com: Glassnode says the bids under $80,000 have thinned
• CoinMarketCap: Bitcoin's MVRV percentile fell to 25.7% after three rejections near $87,000
• KuCoin: exchanges took in a net 8,237 coins over seven days, concentrated on retail venues
• CoinDesk: LO:TECH expects a narrower trading range while rate uncertainty lasts
• Trading Economics: the dollar index rose toward 102 on euro weakness

The bear case leans on the flow ledger and on support that has held three closes on thinning bids.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.258 times its floor and 0.528 times its median, in the lower third of the band and $16,976 above the floor. The spring has held its position for a week while one of its supports drains on a schedule anyone can read.

The bulls have the rate right. The ten-year has given back about 15 basis points since October 9, and the coin has gained little from it, which matches the weak ninety-day link. They lean on the ETF channel harder than the window allows. The 1.55 times issuance figure rests on five September sessions that leave by next Monday.

The bears have the ledger right and the price wrong so far. The funds redeemed close to $1 billion over two weeks, and the coin still closed above $80,000 three days running. STRC carries the plainer damage: $2.28 under par on a coupon fixed against a $99.53 print.

Three markers carry into Tuesday. Today's fund print: a creation above $100 million says new money has started to replace the September week, and a redemption sends Thursday's ratio below 0.65. STRC's first session after the MSCI drop: a close under $97.07 says the market repriced the preferred itself, and a close above $99.00 says Friday priced only the common's loss. This morning's filing: the split between coin and STRC repurchases at a common price near $137 says which side of the balance sheet Strategy funds first.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, supply pressure, exchange balances, network state, Daily Experiment, Fear and Greed composite, synthesis), Farside Investors, Coinbase spot via the box, CoinDesk, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, Federal Reserve H.15, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1792491652582000&sa=E, and reporting from Bloomberg, Crypto Times, Decrypt, Bitcoin.com, CoinMarketCap, KuCoin, crypto.news and Bitcoin News Digest. Nothing here is investment advice.