The Hashpoint for October 25, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 25, 2026

The spot Bitcoin funds turned net sellers on the box's 30-day count this morning. At the window's pace they shed 38 coins a day, minus 0.08 times the 450 the network mines, and that figure does not yet include Friday's $137.9 million exit. Bitcoin broke under $80,000 on Saturday, near $79,200 at the low, and traded at $80,245 on Coinbase at 6:05 a.m. Eastern. That print sits 1.213 times the $66,164 power-law floor and 0.509 times the $157,534 median.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The box's flow window now runs September 25 to October 22 and totals $92.6 million out. One swap did it. Sunday's run dropped September 24's $190.7 million creation, and the box has not booked Friday, so the sign flipped on a subtraction rather than a new sale.

Friday's session belongs in the count all the same. The funds lost $137.9 million, with IBIT redeeming $110.3 million and FBTC $31.8 million while MSBT took $4.2 million, per Farside data cited by the Bitcoin News Digest and Crypto.news. Thursday took out $635.5 million, which erased nearly 60% of the prior three sessions' $1.07 billion, per Decrypt, and the week still closed $301.2 million positive on KuCoin's tally.

The supply pressure index fell to 0.10 from 0.28. Strategy and the funds together bought about 1,370 coins over 30 days against 13,500 mined. Coin Metrics shows exchange balances down 9,304 coins over 30 days, a third of the 28,203 drain the box read a day earlier.

STRC and Strategy

Markets stayed shut Saturday, so STRC holds Friday's $99.36 close, 64 cents under par and unchanged from the figure yesterday's edition carried. The box counts 112 sessions below par and 162 calendar days from the May 14 close at par to Friday's close; the calendar reads 164 today. Effective yield sits at 12.08% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box reads issuance as closed.

The October 19 filing still stands at 848,517 coins and a $75,446 average, with no 8-K since. At this morning's print the position carries $68.09 billion of value, $4,799 a coin and 6.4% above cost. The box puts the half-cushion line at $78,109. Saturday's low came within about $1,100 of it.

Wednesday brings the vote on daily dividends at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, and only common holders vote. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the change moves the payment calendar and leaves the monthly reset alone, so the lag between a rising yield and the coupon survives the vote either way. The October 15 payment of 50 cents lands October 31, and Strategy reports third-quarter results October 29.

Power law and network

The floor rises about $59 a day, and this morning's print sits $14,081 above it. Saturday closed at $80,770, down 0.38% from Friday's $81,078. Coinbase puts the coin down 1.26% across seven days.

The box reads hashrate at 1,007 exahash per second, up 7.9% across 30 days. Difficulty stands at 140.58 trillion. The next retarget arrives at block 973,728, 748 blocks out, about 5.1 days by the box's clock. CoinWarz's Saturday estimate put the rise at 7.25%; this run could not refresh it. Block 972,980 leaves 77,020 blocks to the halving, 63.3% of the way through cycle four.

Yields and the week

The ten-year closed Friday at 5.00% on FRED's count, up from 4.96% per the Bitcoin News Digest, and the two-year at 4.69%. Mortgage News Daily puts the 30-year at 5.32%, up 3.9 basis points. The box's real yield reads 2.66% against September CPI of 3.7%.

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday. CME FedWatch prices about 90% odds of a hold, per the Digest, with about 76% odds of a December hike. Thursday brings third-quarter GDP and September PCE.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793010645341000&sa=E, read 51, Neutral, after Saturday's dip. The Hashpoint structural composite read 29 in Fear a day behind. The gap holds at 22 points.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's own data. ETF absorption leads for a second day, and its sign moved: if the funds keep the last 30 days' pace, they shed 38 coins a day, minus 0.08 times the 450 mined, and as net sellers they never absorb 100,000 coins (window September 25 to October 22, price $80,770).

Yesterday the row read 40 coins a day in. The method held; the window lost a $190.7 million creation and gained nothing. Monday's run should take in Friday's $137.9 million loss and drop September 25's $134.5 million gain. Hashpoint arithmetic puts that window near $365 million out, about 152 coins a day, or minus 0.34 times issuance. For the if-clause to fail, creations need to return after Wednesday's Fed decision.

The yield link stays weak, with an r-squared of 0.013 over 62 sessions. The STRC row's 12.25% reflects the box's reading of the escalator rule, not a company statement.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	-38 BTC a day, -0.08x issuance,
never absorbs 100,000	Was +40, 0.09x, 2,479 days
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -1.24%, r-squared 0.013, n 62
Was -1.16%, 0.012, n 63
STRC to par	Pace holds at -$0.029 a session	Never reaches par; rule
reads 12.25%	Unchanged, no session
Power-law clock	BTC holds $80,770	Floor meets price June 8, 2027, 227
days	Was June 13, 233 days
Strategy cushion	BTC at $80,770	7.1% above cost; halves at $78,109
Was 7.5%, $78,264
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Family median $101,822, gap -20.7%
Was $101,820, -20.4%, same models

The Bull View

• Crypto.news, citing CryptoQuant: the one-year change in whale holdings improved by about 243,000 BTC, to minus 39,000 from minus 282,000
• KuCoin, citing Crypto Alpha Hub: the funds still closed the week $301.2 million positive despite two days of exits
• Bitcoin News Digest: CME FedWatch prices about 90% odds the Fed holds Wednesday
• The Crypto Basic: fifteen miners and rig makers, Bitmain and Foundry among them, signed on to Tether's open-source mining kit

The bull case leans on large holders rebuilding positions and on a week that stayed positive on net.

The Bear View

• CoinDesk, via CoinSpectator: Bitcoin slid below $80,000 to its weakest level in more than a month on U.S. Middle East evacuations
• The Crypto Basic: liquidations cleared $436.4 million of positions, mostly long, in four hours as the coin touched about $79,280
• Crypto.news, citing CoinGlass: liquidations reached $546.9 million over 24 hours, and 32,380 BTC moved onto exchanges
• The Crypto Basic: Arthur Hayes closed Maelstrom's directional trades, citing economic and geopolitical risk
• Bitcoin Magazine: the funds lost over $635 million in a day after the oil spike
• Decrypt: Thursday's outflow topped the $484.9 million exit of October 7 as the month's largest

The bear case leans on geopolitics, on crude above $116, and on margined longs clearing under $80,000.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.213 times its floor and 0.509 times its median, $14,081 above the floor.

The spring lost a support this weekend. The funds now subtract coins on the 30-day count, and supply pressure reads 0.10. Strategy bought 267 coins in its last filed week while it spent its cash on its own preferred. STRC holds 64 cents under par on that cash, not on market demand. The ten-year at 5.00% leaves the yield side of the thesis in place, though the box measures the coin's 90-day link to it at about 1%.

The bulls have the whale data right: large holders have cut their one-year selling by more than 85%. They have the reading wrong when they treat a positive week as a bid, since the box's 30-day window shows none. The bears have the flow and the liquidations right. They lean on headlines the structure cannot price, and Saturday's low still sat $13,000 above the floor.

The next data points arrive in order. Monday's box run should push absorption near minus 0.34 times issuance once Friday enters the window. Monday's 8-K shows where Strategy's cash went this week, to STRC or to coins. STRC needs a hold at or above $99.00 to keep corporate cash in charge, and a close under $98.50 says Friday bought a day. A print under $78,109 halves Strategy's cushion. Wednesday carries the dividend vote at 10:00 a.m. and the Fed at 2:00 p.m.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 19, 2026, Farside data via the Bitcoin News Digest and Crypto.news, KuCoin and Crypto Alpha Hub, Coinbase, FRED via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793010645341000&sa=E via the box, Mortgage News Daily, CME FedWatch via the Bitcoin News Digest, CoinWarz, CoinGlass, CryptoQuant, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793010645341000&sa=E, and reporting from CoinDesk, CoinSpectator, Decrypt, Bitcoin Magazine, The Crypto Basic and Thrive in Markets. Nothing here is investment advice.