The Hashpoint for October 26, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 26, 2026

The two largest institutional buyers subtracted coins over the last 30 days. The box's supply pressure index fell below zero this morning to minus 0.02, from 0.10 a day earlier: Strategy and the spot funds together net sold about 321 coins while the network mined 13,500. Bitcoin slipped under $80,000 in Asian trading overnight, to a low near $79,332, and traded at $80,366 on Coinbase at 6:05 a.m. Eastern. That print sits 1.214 times the $66,223 power-law floor and 0.510 times the $157,675 median.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The sign flipped on arithmetic, and the arithmetic deserves a plain statement. The box's flow window now runs September 28 to October 22 and totals $227.1 million out. Sunday's window lost September 25's $134.5 million creation and booked nothing new. The box still has not recorded Friday, the third morning its flow table has ended on October 22.

Friday's session points the same way. The funds shed $137.9 million on October 23 after a $635.6 million exit Thursday, per Farside data cited by the Bitcoin News Digest and Crypto.news. Thursday and Friday together took out $773.5 million and erased a three-day streak of creations, though the week still closed $301.2 million positive. Cumulative net flow stands near $57.25 billion.

Coin Metrics shows exchange balances down 4,441 coins over 30 days, under half the 9,304 drain the box read Sunday.

STRC and Strategy

STRC holds Friday's $99.36 close, 64 cents under par, unchanged from Sunday's edition with no session since. The box counts 112 sessions below par and 162 days from the May 14 close at par to Friday; the calendar reads 165 today. Effective yield sits at 12.08% on the 12.00% declared rate, and issuance stays shut.

Strategy's weekly filing is due this morning; an update to this edition follows when it lands.

The October 19 filing stands as the current record: 848,517 coins at a $75,446 average, after a week that bought 267 coins for $22.1 million and repurchased 1,938,780 STRC shares for $193.1 million, per the Bitcoin News Digest's reading of the 8-K. The same filing lifted the buyback authorization to $3.0 billion from $2.0 billion. At Sunday's $80,053 close, the coins carry $67.93 billion of value.

Wednesday brings the vote on daily dividends at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the change rewrites the payment calendar and leaves the monthly reset alone, so the lag between a rising yield and the coupon survives the vote. Strategy reports third-quarter results Thursday.

Power law and network

Sunday closed at $80,053, down 0.89% from Saturday's $80,770 and the lowest daily close since mid-September. Crypto.news puts the coin down 2.97% across seven days. This morning's print sits $14,143 above the floor, and the floor climbs about $60 a day.

The box reads hashrate at 1,095 exahash per second on its live point, with a three-day median of 1,082. Difficulty stands at 140.58 trillion. The retarget arrives at block 973,728, 596 blocks out, about 3.9 days by the box's clock; https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793096713221000&sa=E data cited by the Digest puts the rise near 5.1%, landing around 4:00 p.m. Thursday. Block 973,132 leaves 76,868 blocks to the halving, 63.4% of the way through cycle four.

Yields and the Fed week

The ten-year closed Friday at 4.997% per Mortgage News Daily, up 4.4 basis points, after Thursday's 17-point drop to 4.965%. The 30-year sits at 5.32%. The box's real yield reads 2.66%. Investing.com's ticker shows the dollar index at 101.55.

The Fed opens its two-day meeting Tuesday and decides at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday. CME FedWatch priced 90% odds of a hold as of Saturday, per the Digest. BTSE's Jeff Mei told CoinDesk the market watches "how strongly the chair hints at a December hike." Thursday brings third-quarter GDP and September PCE. CoinDesk puts Brent near $114, down 2% from a six-month high.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793096713221000&sa=E, read 54, Neutral. The Hashpoint structural composite read 28 in Fear a day behind, its band-position component at 10. The gap widened to 26 points from 22.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's own data. The cushion led today: if Bitcoin holds Sunday's $80,053 close, Strategy's 848,517 coins sit 6.1% above their $75,449 cost, the cushion halves at $77,751, and it reaches zero at $75,449 (as of October 25).

The half line falls with price, so it trails the coin down. Saturday's line sat at $78,109 and today's sits $358 lower. The overnight low near $79,332 held $1,581 above it. A Monday filing that adds coins above $80,000 lifts the average and narrows the cushion further; a filing that spends its cash on STRC leaves the average alone.

The STRC row still reads never on a 10-session pace of minus 3 cents, and the box's reading of the escalator rule sets the next rate at 12.25%, a structural reading and not a company statement. The ten-year link stays weak, with an r-squared of 0.014 over 61 sessions. The power-law clock moved 11 days closer on a lower flat price alone.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $80,053	6.1% above cost; halves at $77,751
Was 7.1%, $78,109
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	-95 BTC a day, -0.21x issuance,
never	Was -38, -0.08x
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -1.27%, r-squared 0.014, n 61
Was -1.24%, n 62
STRC to par	Pace holds at -$0.03	Never; rule reads 12.25%
Unchanged, no session
Power-law clock	BTC holds $80,053	Floor meets price May 29, 2027, 216
days	Was June 8, 227 days
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $102,277, gap -21.7%	Was
$101,822, -20.7%, same models

The Bull View

• Decrypt: spot funds snapped a two-week losing streak, closing the week $301.2 million positive despite two days of exits
• Crypto.news, citing CryptoQuant: whale deposits to Binance fell to $3.8 billion from $5.9 billion in late August
• Crypto.news, citing Glassnode: buyers refilled bids within days of the October 15 test of $80,000, near the $80,000 to $81,500 cost basis of funds and treasuries
• Bitcoin News Digest: Strive bought 1,223 coins for about $100 million, lifting its stack to 36,818
• Bitcoin News Digest, citing FINMA: Switzerland approved its first retail spot Bitcoin fund, with a November listing planned

The bull case leans on large holders sending fewer coins to exchanges and on institutional cost bases acting as support near $80,000.

The Bear View

• Bloomberg: Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 as an AI-related market selloff deepened
• CoinDesk: traders de-risked ahead of the Fed, and the coin needs $82,500 back to restore buyer confidence
• Crypto.news, citing CoinGlass: $154.2 million of positions liquidated in 24 hours, $118 million of them long
• The Block: longs lost $404 million in four hours as Bitcoin briefly broke $80,000 on Saturday
• Investing.com: oil and rate jitters pinned the coin near $80,200, with the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan all expected to hold hawkish
• Decrypt, citing Myriad: traders price 95% odds of no new all-time high in 2026

The bear case leans on a hawkish Fed week, crude above $110 and retail deposits to Binance near $10.75 billion, a six-month high per CryptoQuant.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.214 times its floor and 0.510 times its median, $14,143 above the floor.

The spring lost its second support in two days. Sunday the funds turned net sellers on the box's count; this morning the funds and Strategy together turned net sellers, and the supply pressure index reads below zero. Strategy's last filed week sent $193.1 million to its own preferred and $22.1 million to coins. STRC sits 64 cents from par on that corporate cash. The ten-year at 5.00% keeps the yield side of the thesis standing, while the box measures the coin's 90-day link to it at about 1%.

The bulls have the cost-basis point right: funds and treasuries bought near $80,000, and the October 15 test held. They have the flows wrong, since the box's 30-day window shows sellers. The bears have the liquidations and the Fed calendar right. They read retail deposits as a top signal while the structure sits at the low tenth of the band and the floor still trails $14,000 below price.

The next data points arrive in order. The weekly 8-K names this week's split between coins and STRC. STRC at or above $99.00 keeps corporate cash in charge of its price; a close under $98.50 says Friday bought a day. A print under $77,751 halves Strategy's cushion. Wednesday carries the dividend vote at 10:00 a.m. and the Fed at 2:00 p.m.; Thursday carries GDP, PCE, Strategy's results and the retarget.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 19, 2026 via the Bitcoin News Digest, Farside data via the Bitcoin News Digest and Crypto.news, Coinbase via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793096713221000&sa=E via the box and the Digest, Mortgage News Daily, FRED via the box, Investing.com, MarketChameleon, CME FedWatch via the Bitcoin News Digest, CoinGlass, CryptoQuant, Glassnode, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793096713221000&sa=E, the Federal Reserve calendar, and reporting from Bloomberg, CoinDesk, Decrypt, The Block and Crypto.news. Nothing here is investment advice.