The Hashpoint for November 6, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 6, 2026

Bitcoin closed Thursday at $75,969, down 5.5% in one session and $521 above the $75,448 average cost of Strategy's 849,327 coins. The Nasdaq fell 5.52% and the chip index lost 12.3%, its worst day since March 2020, per KuCoin's market report. STRC touched its $100 par during Wednesday's trading, then closed Thursday at $99.56. The 10-year fell to 4.83%, its lowest since September, per Trading Economics. Yields fell and the coin fell with them. Thursday's selling came from the equity tape, not the bond market.

STRC and Strategy

STRC gave back 42 cents from Wednesday's $99.98 close. BitcoinTreasuries reports the stock touched $100 on November 4 and closed at $99.98, so the run under par survived by two cents and now stands at 121 sessions, 175 calendar days since the last close at or above par on May 14. The effective yield reads 12.05% on the 12.00% declared rate. The box rates the at-the-market state marginal.

The 10-session pace to par slowed to 9.1 cents a session, which puts par five sessions out at that rate. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing lag keeps the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time mechanism would. Wednesday showed how thin the line runs: one intraday print at $100, then a 44-cent gap a day later.

No new 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. Holdings stand at 849,327 coins at a $75,451 stated average, worth $64.52 billion at Thursday's close by the box's count. Strategy and Coinbase shares each fell about 10%, per crypto.news; this run found no MSTR close. Michael Saylor called it "a 4σ day for equities," per Bitcoin.com News. The box's STRC rate field still reads 0.72% from the small October 30 entry, a data artifact on its sixth day.

Yields and macro

The 10-year closed near 4.83%, down about 6 basis points from 4.89%, per Trading Economics; FRED's series on the box reads 4.84%. The 10-year real yield eased to 2.61%. This morning the 10-year sits at 4.86%, the 2-year at 4.49%, the 30-year at 5.27% and the dollar index at 101.99, a one-week high.

Thursday's data ran soft on costs. Initial claims fell to 189,000 against 196,000 expected, per Bespoke and Hedgeye. Third-quarter productivity rose 3.6% against about 2.8%, and unit labor costs fell 0.7%. Trading Economics puts December hike odds near 68%, down from about 83% a day earlier. The Bank of England raised its rate 25 basis points to 4.00%, per KuCoin. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack still argued for "gradual rate hikes."

The October jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. Eastern today. FactSet's consensus calls for about 65,000 jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate, per CryptoTicker.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794050496012000&sa=E, read 50 on its November 5 print, taken before the drop; KuCoin reports it at 28 this morning. The Hashpoint structural composite read 27 a day behind.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds turned back. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $430.2 million on Thursday, per Coinpaper; Cointelegraph prints $430 million from SoSoValue. IBIT lost $105 million, ARKB $89.9 million, GBTC $49.9 million and the Grayscale mini fund $32.9 million. Coinpaper puts FBTC at minus $99.9 million and Cointelegraph near $200 million, so Farside's final print settles that line. IBIT has now shed money for five straight sessions, more than $1 billion since October 30, per Cointelegraph.

November's first four sessions netted about $869.8 million out. The box confirmed Wednesday's $74.6 million as a settled Farside session and carries cumulative inflow at $56.61 billion. The supply pressure index fell to minus 1.15 from minus 1.04, with institutional holders net sellers of 15,483 coins over 30 days against 13,500 mined.

Power law and network

The floor sits at $66,878 and the median at $159,233. Thursday's close put the coin at 1.136 times the floor and 0.477 times the median, $9,091 above the floor line. CryptoTicker logged a drop from $78,767 to $75,986 inside one hour, and crypto.news counted $1.08 billion of liquidations over 24 hours, $954 million of them longs. At 6:05 a.m. the coin traded at $75,983.

The chain stood at block 974,724 on a difficulty of 148.36 trillion. Hashrate reads 955 exahash per second on the box's daily point and 1,049 on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794050496012000&sa=E's live three-day figure, down 6.8% over 30 days. Blocks arrived every 11 minutes 23 seconds on average. The next retarget sits 1,020 blocks out, about 8.1 days. The halving lies 75,276 blocks away, and cycle four stands 64.2% complete by Hashpoint arithmetic.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. The featured scenario repeats from yesterday, and the move is the story: if Bitcoin holds Thursday's $75,969 close, Strategy's coins sit 0.7% above their $75,448 average, and the cushion halves at $75,709 (as of November 5). Yesterday the cushion read 6.6% with the halving line at $77,938.

One session erased nine tenths of the cushion. The 6:05 a.m. price of $75,983 sat $275 above the halving line. The if-clause holds on any close above $75,709 and fails below it. The power-law clock lost 66 days on the same drop. STRC's pace to par stretched to five sessions. The box rates the 90-day link between the 10-year and Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.0005 over 62 sessions, and the sign of the yield shock flipped to positive, so Thursday's matched fall in yields and price says nothing about the thesis link.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $75,969	0.7% above $75,448 cost; halves at
$75,709	Was 6.6%, $77,938
Power-law clock	BTC holds $75,969	Floor meets price Mar 30, 2027, 145
days	Was Jun 3, 211 days
STRC to par	Pace holds at +$0.091 a session	Par in 5 sessions from
$99.56	Was 1 session from $99.98
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds, through Nov 4	-560 BTC a day,
-1.25x issuance	Was -511, -1.14x
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC +0.27%, r-squared 0.0005, n 62
Was -0.31%, n 61
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $102,989, gap -26.2%	Was
$103,511, -22.3%, same models

The Bull View

• Trading Economics: December hike odds fell to about 68% from nearly 83% a day earlier
• Trading Economics: the 10-year fell to 4.83%, its lowest since September
• Hedgeye: initial claims fell to 189,000 and productivity rose 3.6% against a 2.8% estimate
• crypto.news: Wintermute's Jasper De Maere called the medium term "still glass half full"
• CryptoTicker: Friday's options carry 24,912 calls against 8,223 puts in open interest
• BitcoinTreasuries: STRC touched its $100 par on November 4 for the first time since May

The bull case leans on falling yields and hike odds, cooler labor costs, and a preferred stock that has already reached par once this week.

The Bear View

• KuCoin: the chip index fell 12.3%, its worst day since March 2020, and the Nasdaq lost 5.52%
• crypto.news: $1.08 billion of liquidations in 24 hours, $954 million of them longs
• Coinpaper: spot funds lost $430.2 million Thursday with no fund taking in money
• Cointelegraph: IBIT's outflow streak reached five sessions and more than $1 billion
• 24/7 Wall St: the 5.5% drop to $75,969 wiped out the entire autumn recovery
• crypto.news: GSR's Carlos Guzman said "the midterms appear to have triggered this sell-off"

The bear case leans on a correlated equity rout, forced selling and the largest fund still heading for the exit.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin closed at 1.136 times its floor and 0.477 times its median, back under half the median a day after reclaiming it. The thesis names rising yields as the force that pulls capital from Bitcoin. Thursday ran the other way: the 10-year fell about 6 basis points and the coin still lost 5.5%. The pull came from a chip-stock rout. The box rates the yield link near zero, and Thursday fits that reading.

The bulls have the rates picture right: hike odds fell 15 points and claims came in low. They have not answered $430.2 million of fund selling or a supply index at minus 1.15. The bears have the tape right. They have not shown the floor breaking; the coin sits $9,091 above it, and the power-law clock still reads 145 days.

STRC's 44 cents now sit beside a Strategy cushion of $521. Payrolls at 8:30 test the 10-year at 4.86%. A close under $75,709 halves the cushion, and a close under $75,448 puts Strategy's stack under cost. A STRC close at $100 ends the run at 121 sessions.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of November 2, 2026, Farside via the box, Coinpaper, Cointelegraph citing SoSoValue, TFTC, Coin Metrics via the box, Coinbase via the box, FRED via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794050496013000&sa=E via the box, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794050496013000&sa=E, Trading Economics, Hedgeye, Bespoke, KuCoin, crypto.news, CryptoTicker, Bitcoin.com News via https://www.google.com/url?q=http://cryptonews.net&source=gmail&ust=1794050496013000&sa=E, BitcoinTreasuries, FinanceFeeds, 24/7 Wall St. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.