The Hashpoint for November 3, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 3, 2026

Strategy spent $208.2 million last week buying back its own STRC preferred and $65.5 million buying Bitcoin, more than three dollars on the preferred for every dollar on the coin. Monday's 8-K shows 811 coins bought at $80,846 each and 2,092,035 STRC shares retired. The coin then closed Monday at $76,674, 1.150 times the $66,699 power-law floor and 0.483 times the $158,807 median, and Strategy's cushion over cost thinned to 1.6%. STRC closed at $99.28, its 118th straight session under par.

STRC and Strategy

The filing covers October 26 through November 1. Strategy raised $164.0 million net from MSTR shares, sent $65.5 million to Bitcoin and $98.5 million to cash, and sold no preferred. It drew $208.2 million of cash for the STRC repurchases, which works out to about $99.51 a share by Hashpoint arithmetic. The USD Reserve stands at $4.79 billion after $43.4 million of preferred dividends.

Holdings reached 849,327 coins at a $75,451 stated average and $64.08 billion of cost. The week's buy came in about 7% above that average.

STRC rose 15 cents on Monday, from $99.13 to $99.28, in its first daily-dividend session, for a 12.09% effective yield on the 12.00% November rate. The last close at or above par came on May 14, 172 calendar days ago, and the at-the-market window stays shut. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that STRC's monthly repricing lag keeps the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time rate would. Last week priced that lag: the company bought its own paper instead of selling it.

The box's rate field still reads 0.72% from a 3-cent entry dated October 30, a data artifact, not a company statement.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds sold again. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed a net $398.6 million on Monday, per Farside as reported by Bloomingbit, after Friday's $643.2 million outflow. BlackRock's IBIT lost $405.3 million, and Fidelity's FBTC took in $6.7 million, the only inflow. TokenPost puts five sessions at minus $711.3 million.

The box has not yet logged Monday's session. Its supply pressure index rose to minus 0.66 from minus 0.70 because Strategy's 811 coins entered the 30-day window, leaving institutional buyers net sellers of 8,883 coins against 13,500 mined. Monday's redemption, about 5,200 coins at the close by Hashpoint arithmetic, lands in tomorrow's reading.

Coin Metrics, through the box, shows exchange balances down 26,404 coins over 30 days to November 1, a window that includes Binance's first day back.

Yields and macro

The 10-year ended Monday at 4.91%, per Saxo, after trading as low as 4.865%, and the 2-year sat near 4.60%. The box reads the 10-year real yield at 2.62%. Oil fell hard: Saxo has Brent down 8% after Iran authorized further talks with Washington. ISM manufacturing hit 55.5 against a 54.6 consensus, per CoinDesk.

Stocks did not follow bonds. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% and entered correction territory, per Saxo, while the S&P 500 lost 0.5%. Today brings the midterms and JOLTS at 10:00 a.m. Eastern; payrolls land Friday.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793791285139000&sa=E, read 37 on Monday, up from 34. The Hashpoint structural composite read 26 a day behind, an 11-point gap.

Power law and network

The coin lost 2.0% on Monday, close to close, after a run toward $79,000 faded, per CoinDesk. At 6:05 a.m. it traded at $77,035, 1.155 times the floor and 0.485 times the median.

The chain stands at block 974,312 on a difficulty of 148.36 trillion. Mempool.space reads hashrate at 1,036 exahash per second over three days and estimates the next retarget at minus 1.4% in 1,384 blocks, near November 12, with blocks averaging 10 minutes 10 seconds. The halving sits 75,688 blocks out.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. The cushion scenario leads for a second day because it lost more than half its width in one session: if Bitcoin holds Monday's $76,674 close, Strategy's coins sit 1.6% above their $75,449 average, and the cushion halves at $76,062 (as of November 2). Yesterday it read 3.7%, with the halving line at $76,840.

A $1,556 drop in the close did that. The box's cushion still counts 848,517 coins; adding the 811 bought at $80,846 moves the average by about $5 by Hashpoint arithmetic, so the change comes from price, not from the purchase. The power-law clock lost 24 days with it. The box rates the 90-day link between the 10-year and Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.0003 over 60 sessions. STRC's pace to par slowed to 11 sessions.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $76,674	1.6% above cost; halves at $76,062
Was 3.7%, $76,840
Power-law clock	BTC holds $76,674	Floor meets price Apr 9, 2027, 158
days	Was May 2, 182 days
STRC to par	Pace holds at +$0.066 a session	Par in 11 sessions	Was
7 sessions at +$0.141
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	-351 BTC a day, -0.78x issuance
Was -344, -0.77x; Monday not yet in
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -0.21%, r-squared 0.0003, n 60
n was 61
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $104,345, gap -26.5%	Was
$104,360, -25.0%, same models

The Bull View

• CoinDesk: B2BINPAY's Alex Ryzhkin says "deep institutional presence absorbs the shock" and sees room for BTC to steady at $76,000 to $80,000
• Strategy 8-K: the company added 811 coins, holds 849,327 and keeps a $4.79 billion dividend reserve
• Saxo: the 10-year slipped to 4.91%, and longer Treasury yields reached their lowest in several weeks
• CoinDesk: Changpeng Zhao says Binance covered the theft from its balance sheet as withdrawals ran through 15 networks

The bull case leans on a buyer that keeps buying and a bond market that keeps easing.

The Bear View

• Bloomingbit: spot funds lost $398.6 million Monday, a second straight outflow, almost all from IBIT
• TokenPost: five sessions of fund flows total minus $711.3 million
• CoinDesk: Bitcoin's bounce toward $79,000 faded to $76,750, with Binance and an AI unwind weighing
• Saxo: the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% into correction territory
• CoinDesk: Morgan Stanley cut Coinbase to underweight and its target to $120 from $258
• Strategy 8-K: the company sold no preferred and spent three times as much retiring STRC as buying coin

The bear case leans on fund redemptions, weak tech stocks and a treasury buyer that has turned to defending its own paper.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin closed at 1.150 times its floor and 0.483 times its median. The 10-year eased to 4.91%, so the capital-pull leg of this publication's thesis keeps losing force. STRC gained 15 cents but stayed 72 cents short of par. The spring now stores its tension in the company's own balance sheet: $208.2 million left Strategy's cash to retire a preferred the ATM cannot sell.

The bulls have the buyer right: Strategy bought above its average in a down week. They have not answered $398.6 million of fund selling that the supply index has not yet absorbed. The bears have the funds right. They have not shown the floor breaking, and the multiple has held above 1.14 through a record exchange theft and a week of redemptions.

Four markers come next. Tomorrow's supply index takes in Monday's redemption. STRC's close sets the pace to par against 72 cents. A close under $76,062 halves the cushion, and $75,451 is cost. The midterm results and Friday's payrolls test the 10-year at 4.91%.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of November 2, 2026, Farside via Bloomingbit, TokenPost, Coin Metrics via the box, Coinbase via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793791285140000&sa=E, FRED via the box, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793791285140000&sa=E, Saxo, CoinDesk. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.