The Hashpoint for October 31, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 31, 2026

STRC gave back 86 cents on Friday and closed at $99.13, a day after it settled one cent from par. The spot funds turned the same session: Farside's provisional table shows $409.5 million out, with BlackRock's fund still unreported, which snapped four straight creation days. The 10-year eased to 4.94%, so the curve did not do this. Bitcoin traded at $77,261 on Coinbase at 6:05 a.m., 1.162 times the $66,520 power-law floor and 0.488 times the $158,382 median.

STRC and Strategy

The box counts 117 sessions below par and 169 calendar days since the May 14 close at par. Effective yield reads 12.11% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box marks the at-the-market channel closed, where Thursday's close had it "marginal." STRC's first daily record date falls tomorrow, November 1, with the first daily payment November 2.

The common fell further than the preferred. MSTR closed Friday at $130.51, down 7.8%, on 28.9 million shares against a 30-day average of 20.3 million, per MarketChameleon. The preferred lost 0.86%, so the common moved about nine times as far. In late September this publication watched the preferred ignore its issuer in both directions. Friday it followed the issuer down, at a fraction of the size.

No 8-K landed. Holdings stand at 848,517 coins at a $75,446 average, per the October 26 filing. Thursday's results release left $956.7 million of STRC buyback room.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The Binance breach reached the funds on the first full session after it. Farside's provisional Friday column, relayed by Blockchain Reporter, shows Fidelity's FBTC out $201.0 million, Ark's ARKB out $129.5 million, Grayscale's GBTC out $53.3 million and Bitwise's BITB out $25.7 million. Those two leaders carried about 81% of the total. SoSoValue, via Wu Blockchain and CoinCentral, puts the day at $643 million out with IBIT at minus $234 million, so the final print depends on BlackRock's number.

Before Friday the funds had taken $440.8 million across four sessions, per crypto.news on Farside data, ending with Thursday's settled $17.2 million. The box carries cumulative net flow at $57.69 billion through Thursday.

Hashpoint arithmetic: the box's window from October 1 to October 29 sums to $127.3 million in. Friday's provisional range turns October negative, between about $282 million and $516 million out.

The supply pressure index rose to 0.19 from 0.03, as Strategy and the funds added about 2,500 coins over 30 days against 13,500 mined. That figure predates Friday's redemptions.

Yields and macro

The capital-pull channel stayed quiet. FRED, via the box, carries the 10-year at 4.94% for Friday, and Trading Economics has it "little changed at 4.93%," near seven-week lows. The 2-year read 4.60% and the 30-year 5.31% there. The box reads the 10-year real yield at 2.60%. Schwab's morning table put the dollar index at 101.81.

The third-quarter Employment Cost Index rose 0.8%, in line with expectations and below the second quarter's 0.9%. Tech carried Friday's risk: Schwab reported Intel down 25% and Amazon down almost 7% before the open. Today brings no scheduled US release, and clocks fall back an hour overnight.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793528512738000&sa=E, fell to 30, Fear, on Friday, from 51 a day earlier and 50 a week ago. The Hashpoint structural composite read 26 a day behind. The crowd caught down to the structure, and the gap closed to 4 points from 21.

Power law and network

Bitcoin closed Friday at $77,180, down 0.8% on the day and 4.8% from the October 23 close of $81,078, by Hashpoint arithmetic. CryptoTicker logged an overnight low of $76,443, the lowest since September 18. Against an October open of $83,576, the month stands down 7.7% into tonight's monthly close.

The chain stands at block 973,885, with 1,859 blocks to the next retarget, about 13.2 days. Difficulty holds at 148.36 trillion. Hashrate reads 1,065 exahash per second on the box's daily point, up 14.7% over 30 days. Blocks averaged 10 minutes 14 seconds, which by Hashpoint arithmetic points to a retarget near 2.3% lower if that pace held. The halving sits 76,115 blocks out, 63.8% through cycle four.

Eighteen years ago today, at 2:10 p.m. Eastern, Satoshi Nakamoto posted a nine-page paper that proposed preventing double-spending "without relying on a bank or central mint," as crypto.news put it. KuCoin's tally puts the network that paper described at $1.56 trillion this morning. Bloomberg marked the date by noting BlackRock's fund at $66 billion and the coin's tight link to the Nasdaq 100. The paper asked for no trusted third party. Friday's record theft happened at one.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. STRC to par leads again, and what moved in it is the distance: if the preferred keeps its 10-session pace of 14.1 cents a session, it reaches $100 in seven sessions from Friday's $99.13 (as of October 30). The box's reading of the escalator rule says 12.25% while the close sits under par, a structural reading and not a company statement.

Yesterday the same scenario read one session to par. Friday's 86-cent drop moved that to seven, and the if-clause fails on any session that repeats it. The 10-year offers no lever either way: the box rates its 90-day link to Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.0008 over 63 sessions. Strategy's cushion fell to 2.3% and now halves at $76,315. The ETF row still ends at Thursday, so Friday's redemptions sit outside it.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
STRC to par	Pace holds at +$0.141 a session	Par in 7 sessions; rule
reads 12.25%	Was 1 session
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $77,180	2.3% above cost; halves at $76,315
Was 3.1%, $76,615
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	+55 BTC a day, 0.12x issuance, 1,819
days	Was -17, -0.04x
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -0.32%, r-squared 0.0008, n 63
Was -0.39%, 0.0012
Power-law clock	BTC holds $77,180	Floor meets price April 17, 2027,
169 days	Was April 26, 179 days
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $104,340, gap -26.0%	Was
$104,499, -25.6%, same models

The Bull View

• Cryptonews.net: Binance reserved more than $6.34 billion to cover the theft, with $5 billion already held in the affected tokens and proof-of-reserves results due by November 2
• Cryptonews.net, citing Elliptic: verified on-chain freezes reached $2.84 billion
• Trading Economics: the 10-year held at 4.93%, near seven-week lows
• crypto.news, on Farside data: the funds took $440.8 million in the four sessions before Friday
• Bloomberg, via ChainCatcher: the white paper turns 18 with Bitcoin "stepping into adulthood" and BlackRock's fund at $66 billion

The bull case leans on a covered loss at the venue and a curve that keeps easing.

The Bear View

• Blockchain Reporter, on Farside data: spot funds shed a provisional $409.5 million Friday, led by FBTC's $201.0 million
• CoinCentral, citing SoSoValue: the outflow reached $643 million with IBIT at minus $234 million
• MarketChameleon: MSTR closed down 7.8% at $130.51 on heavy volume
• Crypto Briefing, via TradingView: Bitcoin fell 8.4% in October, on track for a second straight negative October
• CryptoTicker: the coin hit $76,443 overnight, its lowest since September 18
• Schwab: Intel fell 25% and Amazon almost 7% before the open as the Nasdaq-100 headed for a down month

The bear case leans on fund redemptions and a common stock falling far faster than the coin.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.162 times its floor and 0.488 times its median, $10,741 above the floor and in the bottom tenth of its band.

Thursday tested the case against this publication's thesis: a preferred one cent from par on a day the coin fell 4%. Friday answered it. STRC fell 86 cents with the 10-year flat, so the capital-pull half of the thesis still has no claim on the move, and the box's near-zero r-squared says the same. The other half has its machinery back. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing lag keeps the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time rate would, and a close under par keeps the share window shut, with the cushion now 2.3% of cost.

The bulls have the curve and Binance's coverage right. They have the funds wrong for now, at least $409.5 million out. The bears have the redemptions and MSTR's 7.8% right. They have not shown the theft reaching the coin's floor multiple, which moved only from 1.164 to 1.162.

The next data points sit close. BlackRock's Friday number decides whether the outflow lands near $409 million or $643 million. Tonight's monthly close settles October. Tomorrow STRC takes its first daily record date. A close under $76,315 halves the cushion again, and $75,449 equals Strategy's cost.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 26, 2026, Strategy third-quarter results release of October 29, 2026, Farside via the box and via Blockchain Reporter and crypto.news, SoSoValue via CoinCentral, Coinbase via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793528512738000&sa=E via the box, FRED via the box, Trading Economics, Federal Reserve H.15, Schwab, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://rallies.ai&source=gmail&ust=1793528512738000&sa=E, MarketChameleon, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793528512738000&sa=E, Elliptic via Cryptonews.net, and reporting from Bloomberg via ChainCatcher, crypto.news, KuCoin, Crypto Briefing via TradingView, CryptoTicker and Cryptonews.net. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.