The Hashpoint for October 28, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 28, 2026

STRC closed Tuesday at $99.49, up 32 cents and 51 cents under par, hours before two events that bear on it. Strategy's common stockholders vote at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on moving the preferred to daily dividends, and the Fed announces its rate decision at 2:00 p.m. Bitcoin traded at $81,435 on Coinbase at 6:05 a.m., 1.227 times the $66,342 power-law floor and 0.516 times the $157,957 median. The 10-year sat at 4.99%.

STRC and Strategy

The box counts 114 sessions below par and 166 calendar days since the May 14 close at par. Effective yield reads 12.06% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the at-the-market channel stays shut until a close reaches $100. Tuesday's close sits above Monday's $99.17 and Friday's $99.36.

No 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. Monday's filing stands: zero coins, $204.9 million of STRC retired from cash, 848,517 coins at a $75,446 average and $242.4 million of free cash beside a $4.83 billion reserve. The Coin Republic put MSTR's Monday close at $141.50, down 3.09%. I found no confirmed Tuesday close.

Today's vote touches the payment calendar and nothing else. Bitcoin Treasuries reports that STRC's first daily record date would fall on November 1, with payment November 2, and that rates and total cash due stay unchanged. Preferred holders have no vote. Hashpoint's own analysis has held since the September 25 filing that daily payment smooths the ex-dividend dip and leaves the monthly reset in place, so the lag between a rising yield and the coupon outlives the result either way. Strategy reports third-quarter results Thursday after the close.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds posted two straight days of creations after the October 22 and 23 exits. Farside, via the box, books Monday at $110.3 million, all IBIT. SoSoValue, reported by Phemex, puts Tuesday provisionally at $176 million: IBIT $151 million, Fidelity's FBTC $24.54 million and no fund redeeming. The box carries cumulative net flow at $57.36 billion through Monday; SoSoValue's running total reads $57.47 billion on $103.94 billion of net assets.

Two days of creations have not repaired the month. The box's 30-day window, September 28 to October 26, still totals $254.7 million out, and its supply pressure index slipped to minus 0.17 from minus 0.15. Strategy and the spot funds together net sold 2,301 coins over 30 days while miners produced 13,500.

The exchange data splits. Santiment, via crypto.news, counts 14,942 coins leaving exchanges on October 27, the largest daily outflow in five weeks. Coin Metrics, via the box, shows balances up 11,678 coins over 30 days through October 26.

Power law and network

Bitcoin closed Tuesday at $80,800, up 0.99% from Monday, and added 0.79% before dawn. CoinGecko, via Analytics Insight, shows a 1.5% gain over 24 hours; the crypto.news ticker carries a 2.17% loss across seven days.

Hashrate reads 1,105 exahash per second on the box, up 15.8% over 30 days, with a live three-day reading of 1,072. Difficulty stands at 140.58 trillion. Blocks average 8 minutes 33 seconds, and the retarget at block 973,728 sits 265 blocks out, about 1.6 days. The Bitcoin News Digest puts the adjustment near plus 6.3% on Thursday around 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Block 973,463 leaves 76,537 blocks to the halving, 63.6% of the way through cycle four.

Yields and the Fed

The Fed holds the second day of its meeting today, and markets price a hold at 3.75% to 4.00% near 90%, per the Bitcoin News Digest, which also cites CoinDesk on roughly 80% odds of a December hike. Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at 2:30 p.m. HDFC Sky put Tuesday's 10-year at 4.99%, the 2-year at 4.73% and the 30-year at 5.31%, with the dollar index near 102.32, up about 0.35%. The box carries a 2.64% real yield. Conference Board confidence jumped to 91.7 against an 81 forecast.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793269531063000&sa=E, read 48, Neutral, down from 55 a week earlier. The Hashpoint structural composite read 27 in Fear a day behind, so the gap held near 21 points.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. STRC to par led for a second day, and this time the slide slowed: if the preferred keeps the last ten sessions' pace of minus 4.1 cents a session from Tuesday's $99.49 close, it never reaches par, and the box's reading of the escalator rule puts the next rate at 12.25% (as of October 27).

The pace eased from minus 7.1 cents yesterday as Tuesday's 32-cent gain entered the ten-session window. For the if-clause to fail, STRC needs a run of closes like Tuesday's to turn the ten-session drift positive. The 10-year offers no clean lever: the box rates its 90-day link to Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.013 over 61 sessions. The 12.25% figure is the box's structural reading of the rule, not a company statement.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
STRC to par	Pace holds at -$0.041 a session	Never; rule reads 12.25%
Was -$0.071 at $99.17
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	-105 BTC a day, -0.23x issuance,
never	Was -152, -0.34x
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $80,800	7.1% above cost; halves at $78,124
Was 6.0%, $77,729
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -1.27%, r-squared 0.013, n 61
Was -1.25%, r-squared 0.013
Power-law clock	BTC holds $80,800	Floor meets price June 9, 2027, 225
days	Was May 28, 214 days
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $103,479, gap -21.9%	Was
$103,675, -22.8%, same models

The Bull View

• The Block: Galaxy Research says the bear market ended at the June 30 low, citing five straight weekly closes above the 50-week average after 44 below it
• Phemex, citing SoSoValue: spot funds took $176 million Tuesday, a second straight inflow day, with IBIT at $151 million
• crypto.news, citing Santiment: 14,942 coins left exchanges October 27, the largest daily outflow in five weeks
• Analytics Insight: Bitcoin rose 1.5% to $80,847 ahead of the Fed decision
• Bitcoin News Digest: difficulty heads for roughly a 6.3% rise Thursday as blocks arrive in about 8 minutes 33 seconds, per the box

The bull case leans on Galaxy's cycle call and on coins leaving exchanges while the funds create shares.

The Bear View

• The Block: Strategy paused Bitcoin buys and spent $205 million repurchasing STRC
• The Coin Republic: MSTR fell 3.09% to $141.50 Monday after the pause
• CoinDesk: Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 Tuesday as crypto ignored an Asian tech rally
• Decrypt: the funds lost $635.5 million last Thursday and October still runs about $314 million negative
• crypto.news, citing Ali Martinez: Bitcoin's fourth quarter fell 16.7%, 42.2% and 14.8% in the last three midterm years
• crypto.news, citing the Wall Street Journal: U.S. officials warned Gulf states of a possible short military campaign against Iran after the November 3 vote

The bear case leans on the largest corporate buyer stepping away from coins, a negative month of fund flows and a calendar that stacks the Fed, the midterms and Iran into one week.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.227 times its floor and 0.516 times its median, $15,093 above the floor and just above the bottom tenth of its band.

STRC at $99.49 shows corporate cash still setting the preferred's price; yesterday's $98.50 line never came into play. The company bought that 32 cents with $204.9 million it did not spend on coins, and $242.4 million of free cash funds about one more week at that pace. Today's vote cannot change the arithmetic, because the reset stays monthly. The 10-year at 4.99% keeps the yield half of the thesis standing, though the box measures the coin's 90-day link to it near 1%.

The bulls have the flows right for two sessions and the hashrate right for a month. Galaxy's call rests on a $76,540 line that sits $4,895 below this morning's print, so it remains a level to watch rather than a verdict. The bears have Strategy and the October fund total right. They have not shown sellers taking the coin under Saturday's $79,221 low, and Tuesday's $176 million creation cuts against their flow argument.

The next data points arrive in order. Today brings the vote at 10:00 a.m. and the Fed at 2:00 p.m., with any December hike language from Warsh at 2:30. Thursday brings GDP and PCE at 8:30 a.m., the retarget near 1:00 p.m. and Strategy's results after the close. A STRC close at $100 reopens the share window; one under $99.00 says the buyback's grip slipped. A print under $78,124 halves Strategy's cushion. Next Monday's 8-K names the funding.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 26, 2026 via The Block and The Coin Republic, Bitcoin Treasuries, Farside data via the box, SoSoValue via Phemex, Coinbase via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793269531063000&sa=E via the box, FRED via the box, HDFC Sky, Conference Board via HDFC Sky, CoinGecko via Analytics Insight, Santiment via crypto.news, Galaxy Research via The Block, Bitcoin News Digest, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793269531063000&sa=E, and reporting from CoinDesk, Decrypt, The Block, crypto.news, Analytics Insight and The Coin Republic. Nothing here is investment advice.