The Hashpoint for October 27, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 27, 2026

Strategy bought no Bitcoin last week and spent $204.9 million buying back its own preferred. Monday's 8-K covers October 19 to 25: zero coins, 2,068,459 STRC shares repurchased at about $99.06, all of it paid from cash, with no at-the-market sales. The filing leaves $242.4 million of free cash beside a $4.83 billion dividend and interest reserve. STRC closed Monday at $99.17 anyway, down 19 cents. Bitcoin traded at $79,564 on Coinbase at 6:05 a.m. Eastern, 1.200 times the $66,283 power-law floor and 0.504 times the $157,816 median.

STRC and Strategy

The box counts 113 sessions below par and 165 calendar days since the May 14 close at par. Effective yield reads 12.10% on the 12.00% declared rate, and issuance stays shut.

The ratio sharpened again. The October 19 filing sent $193.1 million to STRC and $22.1 million to coins. This one sent $204.9 million and nothing. TechFlow, citing CryptoTicker, puts October's tally near $664 million into STRC against $72.3 million into Bitcoin, about nine to one. Holdings stay at 848,517 coins at a $75,446 average, with $956.8 million of repurchase capacity unused.

The cash line carries the structure. At last week's pace, $242.4 million covers a little more than one further week of repurchases. Past that, the company draws on the reserve, reopens the common ATM as it did in the September 28 filing, or lets the bid step back. MSTR fell 2.52% Monday, per Crypto Times, after a 6.9% loss the prior week to $146.02.

Wednesday brings the shareholder vote on daily dividends at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that daily payment leaves the monthly reset in place, so the lag between a rising yield and the coupon survives the vote. Strategy reports third-quarter results Thursday.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The box booked Friday's $137.9 million exit overnight, and its supply pressure index fell to minus 0.15 from minus 0.02. Strategy and the spot funds together net sold 2,046 coins over 30 days while miners produced 13,500. The box's flow window now runs September 28 to October 23 and totals $365 million out.

Monday broke the two-day exit. BlackRock's IBIT took $110.3 million and every other fund printed zero, per Farside data reported by KuCoin. Adding Monday to the box's $57.25 billion puts cumulative net flow near $57.36 billion.

Coin Metrics shows exchange balances up 2,198 coins over 30 days. Glassnode, via CoinTurk, puts the funds' average entry near $81,500 and corporate treasuries near $80,200, both above this morning's print.

Power law and network

Monday closed at $80,009 on Coinbase, and the coin slipped 0.56% before dawn. CoinGecko, via Crypto Times, shows a 3.0% loss across seven days and a 24-hour range of $79,421 to $80,680. Spot sits $13,281 above the floor, and the floor climbs about $60 a day.

Hashrate reads 1,124 exahash per second on the box's live point and 1,095 on a three-day median, up 10.3% over 30 days. Difficulty stands at 140.58 trillion. The retarget lands at block 973,728, 432 blocks out, about 2.6 days at the current pace. Recent blocks average 8 minutes 40 seconds on the box, which points to a rise; I found no sourced percentage this morning. Block 973,296 leaves 76,704 blocks to the halving, 63.5% of the way through cycle four.

Yields and the Fed

The Fed opens its two-day meeting today. CME FedWatch prices about 90% odds of a hold at 3.75% to 4.00%, per Crypto Times, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday. The ten-year reads 4.995% on Trading Economics, the two-year 4.72% and the 30-year 5.31%. The box carries a 2.66% real yield. Schwab put the dollar index at 101.88 at Monday's open. Consumer confidence and new home sales print at 10:00 a.m. today.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793182853900000&sa=E, read 50, Neutral, down from 59 a week earlier. The Hashpoint structural composite read 28 in Fear a day behind, so the gap narrowed to 22 points from 26.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. STRC to par led today: if the preferred keeps the last ten sessions' pace of minus 7.1 cents a session from Monday's $99.17 close, it never reaches par, and the box's reading of the escalator rule puts the next rate at 12.25% (as of October 26).

The pace more than doubled from yesterday's minus 3 cents. The company retired 2.07 million shares near $99.06 and the ten-session drift still steepened, so corporate cash slowed the slide without reversing it. For the if-clause to fail, STRC needs closes above $99.36 that turn the pace positive. The ten-year at 5.00% offers no help, and the box rates that link weak, with an r-squared of 0.013 over 61 sessions. The 12.25% figure is the box's structural reading of the rule, not a company statement.

ETF absorption deepened to minus 0.34 times issuance once the box booked Friday, the level yesterday's edition expected.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
STRC to par	Pace holds at -$0.071 a session	Never; rule reads 12.25%
Was -$0.03 at $99.36
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	-152 BTC a day, -0.34x issuance,
never	Was -95, -0.21x
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $80,009	6.0% above cost; halves at $77,729
Was 6.1%, $77,751
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -1.25%, r-squared 0.013, n 61
Was -1.27%, r-squared 0.014
Power-law clock	BTC holds $80,009	Floor meets price May 28, 2027, 214
days	Was May 29, 216 days
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $103,675, gap -22.8%	Was
$102,277, -21.7%, same models

The Bull View

• CoinDesk: one wallet holds 800 Bitcoin calls struck at $90,000 for November 6, a $68 million position on Derive, and Derive's odds of $100,000 by Christmas rose to 12% from 9.7%
• KuCoin, citing Farside: IBIT took $110.3 million Monday and ended a two-day exit from the funds
• TechFlow: Strive bought 6,182 coins for about $511 million, lifting its stack to 43,000
• CoinTurk, citing Glassnode: fund and treasury cost bases sit near $81,500 and $80,200, with the True Market Mean at $77,600
• Coinspeaker via Yahoo Finance: perpetual funding sits at a neutral 0.01% per eight hours after $820 million of Saturday liquidations

The bull case leans on fresh institutional buying outside Strategy and on derivatives positioning that reads as reset rather than crowded.

The Bear View

• The Block: Strategy paused Bitcoin buys and spent $205 million repurchasing STRC
• Bloomberg: Bitcoin dipped back below $80,000 as scrutiny of the AI trade deepened
• CoinTurk, citing Santiment: about 30,000 funded wallets closed since October 16, leaving 59.95 million
• Crypto Times, citing Lookonchain: a MARA-linked wallet moved about 1,000 coins to Galaxy Digital, with no confirmed sale
• Coinspeaker via Yahoo Finance: $10.9 billion of options expire Friday with max pain at $78,000
• Coinpedia: $33.6 million of Bitcoin positions liquidated in 24 hours as the coin fell 0.79% to $79,468

The bear case leans on the largest corporate buyer stepping away from coins, thinning retail wallets and a Fed week that meets a coin trading under the funds' average entry.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.200 times its floor and 0.504 times its median, $13,281 above the floor and in the lower tenth of the band.

Sunday the box counted the funds as net sellers. This morning Strategy's filing adds a week with no coins at all, and the supply index reads minus 0.15. The company spends cash to hold STRC near par because a discount keeps shut the issuance that buys coins. That choice holds the preferred at $99.17 and costs the coin its largest bid. With $242.4 million of free cash left, next Monday's filing shows which channel gives way. The ten-year at 5.00% keeps the yield side of the thesis standing, though the box finds the coin's 90-day link to it near 1%.

The bulls have Strive and IBIT right: buyers outside Strategy showed up, and Strive's 6,182 coins exceed Strategy's entire October, $72.3 million of coins. They read one wallet's $90,000 calls as conviction when it amounts to a single trade. The bears have the Strategy pause and the 30-day fund window right. They have not shown sellers breaking Saturday's $79,221 low.

The next data points arrive in order. STRC at or above $99.00 keeps corporate cash in charge of its price; a close under $98.50 says the buyback lost the bid. Wednesday carries the dividend vote at 10:00 a.m. and the Fed at 2:00 p.m. Thursday carries GDP, PCE, Strategy's results and the retarget. A print under $77,729 halves Strategy's cushion. Next Monday's 8-K names the funding: reserve, ATM or a smaller buyback.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 26, 2026 via The Block and TechFlow, Farside data via KuCoin and the box, Coinbase via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793182853900000&sa=E via the box, FRED via the box, Trading Economics, Schwab, CME FedWatch via Crypto Times, CoinGecko via Crypto Times, Glassnode via CoinTurk, Santiment via CoinTurk, Lookonchain via Crypto Times, Derive via CoinDesk, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793182853900000&sa=E, and reporting from Bloomberg, CoinDesk, The Block, Coinspeaker, Coinpedia and Crypto Times. Nothing here is investment advice.