The Hashpoint for October 30, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, October 30, 2026

STRC closed Thursday at $99.99, one cent under par, on the same session Bitcoin fell 4.3% to $77,780 and the largest exchange theft on record began at Binance. The preferred gained 7 cents while the coin lost $3,469. That split moved Strategy's cushion over its own cost from 7.7% to 3.1% in one session. Bitcoin traded at $77,379 on Coinbase at 6:05 a.m., 1.164 times the $66,461 power-law floor and 0.489 times the $158,240 median.

STRC and Strategy

The box counts 116 sessions below par and 168 calendar days since the May 14 close at par. Effective yield reads 12.00% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box marks the at-the-market channel "marginal."

Strategy reported third-quarter results after Thursday's close. Operating income reached $20.91 billion and net income $19.53 billion, or $44.75 a diluted share, driven by the coin's third-quarter gain. The company's own scorecard for the year reads the other way: BTC Yield of minus 3.7% and a BTC dollar gain of minus $2.03 billion through October 25. USD Cash stood at $242.4 million against a $4.83 billion USD Reserve.

The release states the board "maintained the dividend rate at 12.00% to support STRC trading near its $100 per share stated amount." Strategy has retired 20,980,508 STRC shares this year for about $2.04 billion, at an average of $97.39, with $956.7 million of the program left. The final vote on daily dividends counted 381,373,199 shares for and 2,236,551 against, so STRC's first daily record date stands at November 1.

Chief Financial Officer Andrew Kang steps down November 5 for personal reasons, and Reza Virasteh takes the post January 1. CoinDesk reported MSTR down 6.4% before Friday's open. No new 8-K landed; holdings stand at 848,517 coins at a $75,446 average.

The Binance breach

Binance puts the impact near $6.3 billion. Investing.com reported $6.36 billion swept across ten chains in about 20 minutes from 20:05 UTC Thursday. Binance's first finding pointed to "a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop," and by 08:37 UTC Friday it reported "additional points of breach," per Cointelegraph. Issuers and chains froze about $3 billion. Co-CEO Richard Teng said Binance would cover all losses from its SAFU fund and company funds. Cointelegraph reports withdrawals on track to resume in about 45 hours. TRM Labs attributes the attack with "high confidence" to TraderTraitor, a group tied to North Korea.

Reuters, via RTE, put Bitcoin's low in Asian trading at $77,646, a six-week low.

Yields and macro

The long end eased while the coin fell. FRED, via the box, carries the 10-year at 4.98%, down 7 basis points from 5.05% and back under 5%. Investrade's close shows the 2-year at 4.65%, down 7.7 basis points, and the 30-year at 5.327%, down 3.3. The box reads the 10-year real yield at 2.63%. Investrade placed the dollar index near 102 at the close.

Thursday's data ran hot on inflation and strong on growth. Third-quarter GDP rose 3.4% annualized against a 3.2% consensus, per Schwab. September PCE rose 3.6% from a year earlier, core 3.1%. Today brings the third-quarter Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793442437947000&sa=E, read 51, Neutral, on Thursday, down from 68 a week earlier. The Hashpoint structural composite read 30 in Fear a day behind, so the gap narrowed to 21 points from 23.

ETF flows and supply pressure

The funds kept creating shares through the drop. Farside, via the box, settles Wednesday at $137.3 million, matching Thursday's provisional print. SoSoValue, relayed by KuCoin, puts Thursday at a provisional $17.07 million: IBIT $12.80 million and FBTC $10.53 million in, Grayscale's mini trust $15.35 million out. That makes four straight creation days. The box carries cumulative net flow at $57.67 billion.

Hashpoint arithmetic: TFTC's month table ran $26.1 million negative through Tuesday, so Wednesday's settled $137.3 million and Thursday's provisional $17.07 million put October about $128 million positive.

The box's 30-day window, September 30 to October 28, narrowed to $38.6 million out. The supply pressure index crossed zero to 0.03 from minus 0.04, as Strategy and the funds together added 355 coins over 30 days against 13,500 mined.

Power law and network

The retarget landed. Difficulty rose to 148.36 trillion from 140.58 trillion, an increase of 5.5% by Hashpoint arithmetic. Blocks averaged 9 minutes 48 seconds over the last 24 hours, 147 in all, at block 973,746. The next adjustment sits 1,998 blocks out, about 13.6 days. Hashrate reads 964 exahash per second on the box's daily point. The chain stands 76,254 blocks from the halving, 63.7% through cycle four.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. Strategy's cushion leads today: if Bitcoin holds Thursday's $77,780 close, Strategy's 848,517 coins sit 3.1% above their $75,449 cost, the cushion halves at $76,615, and the position equals cost at $75,449 (as of October 29).

Yesterday the cushion read 7.7% with a halving line at $78,349. Bitcoin closed below that line, so the cushion more than halved in one session. This morning's $77,379 spot sits $764 above the new halving line. STRC to par, which led three days running, now reads one session at plus 4.6 cents a session; the box's reading of the escalator rule still says 12.25% while the close sits under par, a structural reading and not a company statement, and the company held 12.00%. The 10-year offers no clean lever: the box rates its 90-day link to Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.001 over 62 sessions.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $77,780	3.1% above cost; halves at $76,615
Was 7.7%, $78,349
STRC to par	Pace holds at +$0.046 a session	Par in 1 session; rule
reads 12.25%	Was +$0.018, 5 sessions
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	-17 BTC a day, -0.04x issuance,
never	Was -45, -0.10x
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -0.39%, r-squared 0.001, n 62
Was -0.94%, r-squared 0.007
Power-law clock	BTC holds $77,780	Floor meets price April 26, 2027,
179 days	Was June 15, 2027, 230 days
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $104,499, gap -25.6%	Was
$104,379, -22.2%, same models

The Bull View

• Strategy: third-quarter operating income hit a record $20.91 billion, and Saylor said "We're at the beginning of the next bitcoin bull market"
• Strategy: the company held STRC at 12.00% and keeps $956.7 million of buyback room to defend the $100 line
• KuCoin, citing SoSoValue: spot funds took a provisional $17.07 million Thursday, a fourth straight inflow day
• Cointelegraph: Binance pledged to cover all losses from SAFU and company funds, with about $3 billion frozen

The bull case leans on a preferred one cent from par and on fund creations that held through the selloff.

The Bear View

• Bloomberg: Bitcoin dropped on the Binance hack as a stock selloff also weighed
• Investing.com: hackers took $6.36 billion from Binance, the largest crypto theft on record, and crypto stocks fell before the open
• Reuters, via RTE: Bitcoin hit a six-week low of $77,646 in Asian trading
• CoinDesk: MSTR fell 6.4% before Friday's open as the CFO resigned
• Strategy: BTC Yield stands at minus 3.7% for the year, with USD Cash at $242.4 million

The bear case leans on a record theft at the largest venue and on a Strategy cushion down to 3.1% of cost.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.164 times its floor and 0.489 times its median, $10,918 above the floor and in the bottom tenth of its band.

The spring took a hit from outside the frame. Neither standing number caused Thursday's fall: the 10-year eased 7 basis points and STRC climbed to within a cent of par. A theft at a venue moved the coin, and the capital-pull half of the thesis has no claim on that move. The box's 90-day link between the 10-year and the coin reads near zero, which says the same thing in numbers.

The bulls have STRC and four sessions of flows right. They have the price wrong for now: the coin closed under the line that halves Strategy's cushion. The bears have the theft and the cushion right. They have not shown the funds redeeming, and Thursday's provisional print stayed positive.

Hashpoint's own analysis has argued that the escalator lag leaves the largest institutional bid impaired. Thursday tested the opposite case: a preferred a cent from par with a coin at a six-week low. Par reopens the share window, and a reopened window with a 3.1% cushion funds coins at prices near cost.

The next data points arrive fast. The Employment Cost Index prints at 8:30 a.m. STRC's first close at or above $100 reopens the share window, and November 1 brings its first daily record date. Binance's withdrawal restart, about 45 hours out, shows how many coins leave the venue. A close under $76,615 halves the cushion again.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy third-quarter 2026 results release of October 29, 2026, Strategy Form 8-K of October 26, 2026, Farside data via the box, SoSoValue via KuCoin, TFTC, Coinbase via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793442437947000&sa=E via the box, FRED via the box, Investrade, Schwab, Crypto Fear & Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793442437947000&sa=E, TRM Labs via Cointelegraph, and reporting from Bloomberg, Reuters via RTE, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Investing.com and KuCoin. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.