The Hashpoint for November 2, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 2, 2026

Update: Strategy's week

Added 8:15 AM ET after Strategy's weekly filing.

From October 26 through November 1, Strategy bought 811 bitcoin for $65.5 million, an average of $80,846 a coin. It now holds 849,327 coins at an aggregate cost of $64.08 billion, or $75,451 a coin.

How the week was paid for:

• Common stock: 1,178,552 MSTR shares sold for $164.0 million in net proceeds, $65.5 million to bitcoin of it.
• Preferred stock sales: none.
• USD Cash: $208.2 million to preferred repurchases.

Preferred repurchases:

• STRC: 2,092,035 shares retired for $208.2 million.
• $748.6 million of the preferred repurchase authorization remains.

Preferred repurchases took $3.18 for every $1.00 that went into bitcoin.

STRC pays its first daily dividend this morning while it trades 87 cents under par. The preferred last closed at $99.13 on Friday, its 117th straight session below $100, and the at-the-market channel that turns STRC demand into Bitcoin purchases stays shut. Underneath it, the box's supply pressure index fell to minus 0.70 from minus 0.53: over 30 days, Strategy and the spot funds together handed back 9,484 coins while miners produced 13,500. Bitcoin traded at $77,836 at 6:05 a.m., 1.168 times the $66,639 power-law floor and 0.491 times the $158,665 median.

STRC and Strategy

Strategy's shareholders approved the daily schedule on October 28 with 99.3% of votes cast in favor, per Saylor's post as reported by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://bitcointreasuries.net&source=gmail&ust=1793705322446000&sa=E. Every calendar day now carries a record date, with payment on the next business day. The October 16 8-K set November at 12.00% a year, or $1.00 a share for the month, about 3.3 cents a day by Hashpoint arithmetic. The rate and the total stay the same.

The close sets the problem. Friday's $99.13 followed $99.99 on Thursday, an 86-cent drop in one session, and leaves an effective yield of 12.11%. The last close at or above par came on May 14, 172 calendar days ago. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that STRC's monthly repricing lag keeps the largest institutional bid impaired longer than a real-time rate would. Daily payments shorten the wait for cash. They leave the monthly reset where it was.

Strategy's weekly filing is due this morning; an update to this edition follows when it lands. Until then, holdings stand at 848,517 coins at a $75,446 stated average and $64.02 billion of cost, per the October 26 filing, which bought no Bitcoin and retired 2,068,459 STRC shares for $204.9 million.

One box reading needs a flag. The dividend table logged a 3-cent payment dated October 30 during the switch, so the box's rate field reads 0.72% where the declared rate is 12.00%. That is a data artifact, not a company statement.

ETF flows and supply pressure

No fund session has settled since Friday's $643.2 million outflow, so the supply index moved on the calendar, not on new selling. The 30-day window now runs October 5 to 30, and the early-October creation days rolled out of it. The window's net flow stands at minus $808.5 million. Cumulative net flow since launch reads $57.05 billion on the box.

The coins point a different way than the funds. Coin Metrics, through the box, shows exchange balances down 12,645 coins over 30 days, so holders kept withdrawing from venues while the funds redeemed. Binance tested that pattern Sunday with a $3.64 billion net outflow in 9.5 hours, 2.1% of its $171 billion in assets, per The Block.

Yields and macro

The 10-year gave the bears nothing new. FRED via the box carries 4.94% for Friday, and Len Watson's Monday newsletter puts it 42 basis points under its October high of 5.36%, with the 2-year at 4.56%. The box reads the 10-year real yield at 2.60%. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with Cook and Hammack dissenting for a hike, and CME odds of a December hike sit near 70.7%, per the same newsletter.

Oil eased. Brent fell 3.3% to $109.66 in Asian trade, a move CoinDesk tied to a report that Trump wants more time for Iran diplomacy. ISM manufacturing lands at 10:00 a.m. Eastern against a 54.7 consensus, and Goolsbee speaks at 11:15 a.m. Tuesday brings the midterms, Wednesday the Treasury's refunding, and Friday payrolls at a 65,000 consensus.

Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793705322446000&sa=E, read 34 on Sunday, up from 30 a day earlier and down from 54 a week ago. The Hashpoint structural composite read 25 a day behind, with its band-position component at the 5.5th percentile. The gap widened to 9 points.

Power law and network

The coin closed Sunday at $78,231 on Coinbase, its third straight daily gain, and touched $78,878 before easing, per Ted Pillows. At 6:05 a.m. it stood $11,197 above the floor. Against the October 24 close of $80,770, spot sits 3.6% lower by Hashpoint arithmetic.

The chain reached block 974,188 at a difficulty of 148.36 trillion. Hashrate reads 1,128 exahash per second on the box's daily point and 1,087 on the three-day median, up 20.6% over 30 days. Blocks averaged 9 minutes 28 seconds, which points to a retarget near plus 5.7% in 1,556 blocks, about 10.2 days out, if that pace held (Hashpoint arithmetic). The halving sits 75,812 blocks away, with cycle four 63.9% complete.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. If Bitcoin holds Sunday's $78,231 close, Strategy's 848,517 coins sit 3.7% above their $75,449 average cost, and the cushion halves at $76,840 (as of November 1).

Yesterday the cushion read 2.6% at $77,424. An $807 rise in the close added more than a point, which shows how thin the margin runs at 1.17 times the floor. The ETF row deepened to minus 344 coins a day with no new session, because the window rolled. The yield row stays weak: the box rates the 90-day link between the 10-year and Bitcoin weak, with an r-squared of 0.0003 over 61 sessions, so this morning's cushion depends on the coin, not the curve. The STRC escalator reading still rests on the misread 0.72% rate input.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $78,231	3.7% above cost; halves at $76,840
Was 2.6%, $76,437
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	-344 BTC a day, -0.77x issuance,
never absorbs	Was -266, -0.59x
STRC to par	Pace holds at +$0.141 a session	Par in 7 sessions	No
session; rate input misread
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC -0.21%, r-squared 0.0003, n 61
Was -0.27%, 0.0006, n 62
Power-law clock	BTC holds $78,231	Floor meets price May 2, 2027, 182
days	Was April 20, 171 days
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $104,360, gap -25.0%	Was
$104,670, -26.0%, same models

The Bull View

• CoinDesk: Bitcoin clawed back toward $79,000 for a third straight gain as markets shook off the $6.3 billion Binance theft
• Brad Feld: Binance says it has covered 95% of the stolen $6.3 billion, up from 80% Friday
• Ted Pillows: Binance absorbed a $3.64 billion net outflow, 2.1% of assets, and "the exchange held up" - https://www.google.com/url?q=http://bitcointreasuries.net&source=gmail&ust=1793705322446000&sa=E: Strategy holders approved daily STRC dividends with 99.3% support, with the first payment today
• CoinCentral: spot funds remain about $361 million positive for the year, per SoSoValue
• Len Watson: the 10-year sits at 4.94%, 42 basis points under its October high

The bull case leans on an exchange that survived its run and a curve that has stopped climbing.

The Bear View

• The Block: Binance lost a net $3.64 billion in 9.5 hours after reopening withdrawals
• Brad Feld: the full proof of reserves slipped to Tuesday UTC, and Binance reports "additional points of breach"
• CoinCentral: spot funds lost $515 million in October, the first negative month since June, while ether funds shed a record $1.61 billion
• CoinDesk: BTSE's Jeff Mei says "macro pressures will continue to keep interest rates high"
• Ted Pillows: "An orderly exit is not new demand," with Strategy down 7.8% and Coinbase down 10.6% Friday
• CoinDesk: the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% Friday, its worst day since June
• Len Watson: CME odds of a December hike stand near 70.7%

The bear case leans on fund redemptions, an unfinished audit and a Fed that dissents toward hikes.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin sits at 1.168 times its floor and 0.491 times its median, in the bottom tenth of its band, and the clock now gives a flat price 182 days before the rising floor catches it.

The two standing numbers moved apart. The 10-year sits 42 basis points under its October peak, which removes the capital-pull pressure this publication watched for most of the fall, and the box's near-zero r-squared confirms the curve has not driven the coin for 90 days. STRC went the other way, losing 86 cents in Friday's session to finish under par for a 117th time. The spring holds its tension in the preferred and in the funds, not in the bond market.

The bulls have Binance right: a 2.1% outflow does not break an exchange. They have not answered a supply index at minus 0.70. The bears have the redemptions right. They have not shown the floor multiple breaking, and it held at 1.17 through the largest theft on record.

Four markers come next. This morning's 8-K shows if Strategy bought into a 3.7% cushion. STRC's first daily-dividend session sets a close against par, and $100 reopens the share window. Binance's full proof lands Tuesday. A close under $76,840 halves the cushion.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of October 26, 2026, Farside via the box, Coin Metrics via the box, Coinbase via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1793705322446000&sa=E via the box, FRED via the box, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1793705322446000&sa=E, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://bitcointreasuries.net&source=gmail&ust=1793705322446000&sa=E, The Block, CoinDesk, CoinCentral, Ted Pillows, Brad Feld and Len Watson's newsletter citing CME FedWatch. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.