The Hashpoint for November 7, 2026
· Dennis W. Davis
Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 7, 2026
Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, against a 65,000 consensus, and Bitcoin barely moved. The coin closed Friday at $75,731, down 0.3%, and $283 above the $75,448 average cost of Strategy's 849,327 coins. The 10-year yield rose to 4.87%, per Trading Economics. STRC gained 28 cents to $99.84. Spot Bitcoin funds lost another $411.9 million. A hot jobs print pushed yields up and the preferred up on the same day, the opposite of what the thesis pairs.
Yields and macro
Trading Economics reports payrolls of 165,000 against its own 40,000 forecast, with September revised up to 60,000 from 29,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year. Bitcoin Magazine put the consensus at 59,000 and called the print "nearly three times" the estimate.
The 10-year touched 4.9% after the release and settled near 4.86% to 4.87%, up 3 basis points. The box's FRED series reads 4.86%. The 2-year rose 5 basis points to 4.52%. The 30-year held at 5.27%. The dollar index gained 0.7% to 102.28. The 10-year real yield reads 2.63% on the box. Trading Economics puts December hike odds near 71%, up from 68% before the report; KuCoin cites 77% and Bitcoin Magazine about 79%.
Stocks recovered part of Thursday's rout. The S&P 500 gained 0.31% and the Nasdaq about 1.3%, led by chipmakers. Bitcoin did not join them.
October CPI arrives Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
Market mood, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E, read 28 on November 6, down from 50. The Hashpoint structural composite read 23 a day behind, in extreme fear. The gap narrowed to 5 points from 23.
STRC and Strategy
STRC closed at $99.84, up 28 cents from Thursday's $99.56 and 16 cents short of par. The run below par now covers 122 sessions and 176 calendar days since the last close at or above $100 on May 14. Strategy's STRC page shows the same 28-cent gain, a 12.00% rate and a 12.02% effective yield. The box rates the at-the-market state marginal.
Yields rose and STRC rose. The Hashpoint thesis holds that a rising 10-year weakens STRC below par. Friday ran against that pairing for a second straight session, after Thursday ran yields down with the stock.
No 8-K landed in the last 24 hours. Strategy's November 2 filing stands: 811 coins bought, holdings of 849,327 at a $75,451 stated average. MSTR closed at $128.93, down 0.29%, per StockAnalysis. At Friday's close the stack is worth $64.32 billion by the box's count, $240 million above its $64.08 billion cost.
ETF flows and supply pressure
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9 million on Friday, per Farside figures cited by crypto.news. IBIT shed $403 million. Fidelity's FBTC took in $42.8 million, the only inflow. ARKB lost $20.1 million, Bitwise $20.5 million and GBTC $11.1 million.
TFTC and The Block settle Thursday's Fidelity line at minus $199.9 million inside the $430.2 million total. IBIT lost money in all five sessions of the week, $1.21 billion in all. The week came to minus $1.28 billion, and November now runs about $1.28 billion out by Hashpoint arithmetic. CryptoTicker reports 2026 ETF flows turned net negative for the year: minus $431 million on TFTC's tally and minus $502 million on SoSoValue's.
The box carries cumulative inflow at $56.18 billion through Thursday. The supply pressure index sits at minus 1.10, from minus 1.15. Institutional holders sold a net 14,813 coins over 30 days against 13,500 mined.
Power law and network
The floor sits at $66,938 and the median at $159,376. Friday's close put the coin at 1.131 times the floor and 0.475 times the median, $8,793 above the floor line. Decrypt logged an intraday low of $74,781. At 6:05 a.m. the coin traded at $75,897, up 0.2% from the close. Crypto.news puts the week at minus 2.9% from a $78,354 open.
The chain reached block 974,866 on a difficulty of 148.36 trillion. Hashrate reads 1,001 exahash per second on the box's point, down 1.8% over 30 days, and 1,013 on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E's three-day figure. Blocks arrived every 9 minutes 59 seconds. The retarget sits 878 blocks out, about 6.1 days, and CoinWarz estimates a 0.19% cut. The halving lies 75,134 blocks away.
The Daily Experiment
This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. The box features STRC to par today: if STRC keeps its 10-session pace of 4.8 cents a session, it reaches $100 in four sessions from Friday's $99.84 (as of November 6).
The pace halved from 9.1 cents yesterday, yet the gap shrank by 28 cents, so the count fell from five sessions to four. The if-clause holds as long as STRC keeps climbing on days the 10-year rises; Friday supplied one such day. The box's escalator reads 0.97% next from 0.72%, both computed from small $0.03 dividend entries the box misreads; Strategy's declared rate stays 12.00%. The yield link stays weak, with an r-squared of 0.0004 over 63 sessions.
Strategy's cushion thinned to 0.4% from 0.7%, and a close under $75,448 puts the stack under cost.
| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
|---|---|---|---|
| STRC to par | Pace holds at +$0.048 a session | Par in 4 sessions from | |
| $99.84 | Was 5 sessions at +$0.091 | ||
| Strategy cushion | BTC holds $75,731 | 0.4% above $75,448; halves at | |
| $75,590 | Was 0.7%, $75,709 | ||
| Power-law clock | BTC holds $75,731 | Floor meets price Mar 26, 2027, 140 | |
| days | Was Mar 30, 145 days | ||
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds, through Nov 5 | -538 BTC a day, | |
| -1.20x issuance | Was -560, -1.25x | ||
| Yield shock | 10-year rises 25 bp | BTC +0.25%, r-squared 0.0004, n 63 | |
| Was +0.27%, n 62 | |||
| Theory drift | BTC flat 90 days | Median $103,328, gap -26.7% | Was |
| $102,989, -26.2%, same models |
The Bull View
- Trading Economics: payrolls rose 165,000 and unemployment fell to 4.1%, a stronger economy than forecast
- The Block: Strive booked a $509 million third-quarter profit and now holds 43,124 coins after buying 15,124 in October
- Investing.com: Bitcoin rebounded to $76,103 Saturday morning, with traders watching $80,000 above
- Trading Economics: the Nasdaq gained about 1.3% as chipmakers recovered from Thursday's 12.3% index drop
- crypto.news: Fidelity's FBTC took in $42.8 million on a day IBIT bled
The bull case leans on a firm economy and a market that held its level through a hot print.
The Bear View
- crypto.news: spot Bitcoin funds lost $1.28 billion over the week, IBIT $1.21 billion of it
- CryptoTicker: 2026 spot ETF flows turned net negative for the year, down from a $3.20 billion May peak
- Bitcoin Magazine: December hike odds rose to about 79% after the payroll beat
- Fortune: Bitcoin sat 24.98% below its level a year earlier, at $76,024 Friday morning
- CoinDesk: Thursday's liquidations reached $1.26 billion, $1.12 billion of them longs
The bear case leans on the largest fund heading for the exit and a Fed that markets now expect to hike again.
The Hashpoint read
Bitcoin closed at 1.131 times its floor and 0.475 times its median. The thesis names a rising 10-year as the force that pulls capital from Bitcoin and drags STRC under par. Friday's 3-basis-point rise left the coin down 0.3% and STRC up 28 cents. The box rates the 90-day yield link near zero, and two sessions of opposite moves fit that reading.
The bulls have the economy right: 165,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment. They have not answered $1.28 billion of weekly fund selling or a supply index at minus 1.10. The bears have the flows right. They have not shown the floor breaking; the coin sits $8,793 above it, and STRC sits 16 cents from par.
Strategy's cushion stands at $283. Tuesday's CPI tests the 10-year at 4.87%. A close under $75,448 puts Strategy's stack under cost. A STRC close at $100 ends the run at 122 sessions.
Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of November 2, 2026, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://strategy.com&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E STRC page, Farside via crypto.news, TFTC, The Block, Coin Metrics via the box, Coinbase via the box, FRED via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E via the box, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794136881142000&sa=E, Trading Economics, StockAnalysis, CoinWarz, Decrypt, CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine, KuCoin, CryptoTicker, Investing.com, Fortune. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.
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