The Hashpoint for November 12, 2026
· Dennis W. Davis
Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 12, 2026
MSCI removed Strategy from its USA Index on Wednesday evening, and with it from MSCI World and ACWI, effective after the November 30 close. The company holds 850,364 coins at a $75,456 average, and Bitcoin traded at $73,372 on the box's Coinbase read at 6:05 a.m., $2,084 under that cost. CoinDesk and Investing.com report MSTR down about 4% in premarket trading. Spot funds lost $299.9 million on Wednesday, a fifth straight outflow. STRC closed at $99.99, one cent under par, in session 125 of its run.
STRC and Strategy
MSCI's November index review applied its new screen for "non-operating" companies, per The Block and Bitcoin Magazine. MSCI gave no company-specific reasons and published no selling estimate of its own.
The estimates come from elsewhere. Strategy told MSCI that index-tracking funds hold about 13 million shares, 3.1% of basic shares outstanding, and called it "less than one day's trading volume," per Cointelegraph. CoinDesk values that stake near $1.6 billion at Wednesday's prices. JPMorgan's older $2.8 billion figure, up to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow, rested on MSCI's earlier proposal, as CoinDesk and Bitcoin Magazine both note. Strategy issued no new statement on Wednesday. Metaplanet and Upexi left MSCI indexes in the same review.
MSTR closed Wednesday at $122.35, up 1.06%, before the announcement. The Block had it at $119.06 after hours. CoinDesk puts the mNAV near 1.08 times, against a 3.4 times peak in November 2024.
STRC closed Wednesday at $99.99 on the box's Nasdaq series, a cent better than Monday's $99.98. No source fetched this morning confirms Tuesday's close. The run below par reached 125 sessions, and the last close at or above $100 came on May 14, 181 calendar days ago. The declared rate holds at 12.00%, an effective yield of 12.001% at the close. Strategy's STRC page lists a November 12 record date and a November 13 payment. No new 8-K appeared on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://strategy.com&source=gmail&ust=1794569210632000&sa=E .
At $73,372 the stack sits 2.76% under cost, about $1.77 billion in total by Hashpoint arithmetic.
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Power law and network
The box's November 11 bands put the floor at $67,237 and the median at $160,089. The 6:05 price stands at 1.091 times the floor and 0.458 times the median, $6,135 above the floor line.
CoinGecko shows $73,589 this morning, down 0.6% in a day and 8.7% in a week, with a 24-hour range of $73,357 to $74,695.
The network sits 215 blocks from the retarget at height 975,744. Mempool.space projects a 7.39% difficulty cut around 5:15 p.m. Eastern on Friday, from 148.36 trillion, at a three-day hashrate of 956 exahash per second. CoinWarz projects 7.32%. The halving lies 74,515 blocks away.
Macro and ETF flows
The bond market reopened Thursday after the holiday. Trading Economics shows the 10-year at 5.00%, the 2-year at 4.77% and the 30-year at 5.34%. Bloomberg, via Swissinfo, reported long bonds gaining in Asian hours as Nvidia fell as much as 10% after hours on reports its board is weighing the chief executive's future. The dollar index reads 102.83, just under its highest since April 2025. FRED's 10-year real yield last printed 2.66% for November 9.
Today brings jobless claims at 8:30 with a 195,000 consensus and a $25 billion 30-year auction at 1:00 p.m. October PPI follows Friday at a 0.4% consensus. FedWatch readings from Tuesday, after CPI, priced 85% to 89% for a 25 basis point hike in December and almost no chance of a hold.
Spot funds lost $299.9 million on Wednesday on provisional figures from Trader T and SoSoValue. IBIT shed $269.7 million and GBTC $39.1 million, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $9.0 million. Farside did not load. TokenPost counts $1.88 billion out across eight sessions, with one inflow day. Cumulative inflow falls to about $55.17 billion by Hashpoint arithmetic. The box's supply pressure reading sits at minus 1.49, from minus 1.21 on Tuesday's edition.
Market mood reads 28 on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794569210632000&sa=E, from 29. The Hashpoint structural composite reads 22, Extreme Fear, as of November 10.
The Daily Experiment
This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run on the box's data. If Bitcoin holds $73,928, the Theory Lab's family median sits at $95,863 in 30 days and $102,698 in 90, a 28.0% gap at the longer horizon, as of November 11.
The gap widened from 27.2% on the November 10 run, the last one this publication printed, because price fell while the model lines kept rising. The composition did not change: the same six models feed both runs, with stock-to-flow still excluded by the error rule. The yield link stays weak, with an r-squared of 0.00 across 60 sessions, so the 10-year's move toward 5% does not explain this gap in the box's own numbers. The power-law clock moved closer: a flat price now meets the floor on February 27, 2027, 108 days out.
| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Theory drift | BTC holds $73,928 | +90d median $102,698, gap -28.0% | |
| from -27.2% (Nov 10) | |||
| Power-law clock | Price stays flat | Meets floor Feb 27, 2027, 108 days | |
| from 130 days | |||
| STRC to par | +$0.007 a session holds | Par in 2 sessions; rule reads | |
| 12.25% next | from 1 session | ||
| Strategy cushion | BTC at $73,928 | 2.0% under the $75,456 cost | from |
| -0.25% on old count | |||
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | -740 BTC a day, -1.65x issuance | |
| from -1.39x | |||
| Yield shock | 10-year +25 bp | BTC +0.07%, r-squared 0.00, n 60 | from |
| +0.37% |
The "since yesterday" column compares against the November 10 run because the November 11 data email did not arrive. The STRC step is the box's structural reading of the rule, not a company statement.
The Bull View
- CoinDesk: 10x Research's Markus Thielen says the MSCI removal "has been widely expected, so most of it is already priced in," and expects no spillover into Bitcoin
- The Block: Deutsche Bank's custody service went live for European institutions, and its asset manager, with EUR 1.22 trillion, signed a deal to explore crypto products
- CoinDesk: CryptoQuant's Bull Score fell to 20 from 90 on October 13, matching April 2025 just before a bottom
- Yahoo Finance via Motley Fool: 13F filings show Barclays raised its IBIT stake 48% in the third quarter, to about $187 million
- Mempool.space and CoinWarz: both project a difficulty cut above 7% on Friday, easing pressure on miners
The bull case leans on a removal investors saw coming and on sentiment readings that have marked lows before.
The Bear View
- CoinDesk: BloFin says a shrinking premium makes new stock issuance "less accretive, potentially slowing future Bitcoin accumulation"
- Bitcoin Magazine: MSCI's removal takes Strategy out of World and ACWI as well, with funds holding 3.1% of shares
- Bloomingbit: ETF outflows ran five days, the longest streak since July, totaling $1.44 billion
- The Block: stablecoin supply fell $14.2 billion in 30 days, the largest drop since 2022, per Glassnode
- The Block: Derive's options put 31% odds on Bitcoin under $70,000 at Christmas, up from 15%
- Decrypt: short-term holders sent about 48,500 coins to exchanges in 24 hours, nearly all at a loss, per CryptoQuant
- crypto.news: Hilbert Group's Russell Thompson named $65,000 as possible downside if chip stocks force margin selling
The bear case leans on the largest corporate buyer losing an index bid while the funds and the stablecoin base both shrink.
The Hashpoint read
Bitcoin trades at 1.09 times its floor and 0.46 times its median. The 10-year sits at 5.00%, and STRC closed one cent under par.
The bulls have the STRC tape right. A one-cent gain over two sessions put STRC at $99.99, and the box's pace reads par in two sessions. They also have the scale right: CoinDesk's $1.6 billion index stake runs smaller than the $1.88 billion the funds shed in eight sessions. They miss the channel. STRC sits near par because Strategy spent $188.3 million buying it back, and that money came from common stock that now loses an index bid. An mNAV near 1.08 leaves little room to issue.
The bears have the flows right: eight sessions, $1.88 billion out, and a supply pressure reading below minus 1. They still owe the yield link. The box's 90-day r-squared reads 0.00, so the thesis's first leg has not shown up in Bitcoin's daily moves this quarter.
The spring stores more energy at the floor end today, with a flat price 108 days from the floor line. The next confirming print is STRC's first close at or above $100 since May 14, which would end the 125-session run. The disconfirming print is a Bitcoin close back above $75,456, which would put Strategy's stack over cost before the November 30 exit.
Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (HASHPOINT DATA email of November 12, bands and STRC as of November 11), Strategy Form 8-K of November 9, 2026, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://strategy.com&source=gmail&ust=1794569210632000&sa=E, The Block, CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine, Cointelegraph, Investing.com, Trader T and SoSoValue via KuCoin and Bloomingbit, TokenPost, CoinGecko, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794569210632000&sa=E, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, FRED, Bloomberg via Swissinfo, Saxo, U.S. Treasury, CME FedWatch via Investing.com, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794569210632000&sa=E, Glassnode, CryptoQuant, Derive, Decrypt, crypto.news, Yahoo Finance. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.
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