The Hashpoint for November 9, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 9, 2026

Update: Strategy's week

Added 8:15 AM ET after Strategy's weekly filing.

From November 2 through November 8, Strategy bought 1,036 bitcoin for $81.9 million, an average of $79,012 a coin. It now holds 850,364 coins at an aggregate cost of $64.16 billion, or $75,456 a coin.

How the week was paid for:

• Common stock: 2,051,348 MSTR shares sold for $283.8 million in net proceeds, $81.9 million to bitcoin and $188.3 million to preferred repurchases.
• Preferred stock sales: none.

Preferred repurchases:

• STRC: 1,887,464 shares retired for $188.3 million.
• $560.3 million of the preferred repurchase authorization remains.

Preferred repurchases took $2.30 for every $1.00 that went into bitcoin.

Bitcoin closed Sunday at $74,754, below all three cost lines that sat inside $310 of one another on Saturday. Strategy's 849,327 coins cost $75,448 each on the box's count, so the stack closed 0.92% under water, about $589 million short of its $64.08 billion cost. CryptoQuant puts the short-term holder cost basis at $75,691, and the coin now trades below that too. At 6:05 a.m. the price stood at $74,016. The line Saturday's edition named as the test has broken, and the next support on the chart is the 200-day average near $73,150.

Power law and network

The floor reads $67,057 and the median $159,660. Sunday's close put the coin at 1.115 times the floor and 0.468 times the median. The 6:05 spot print sits at 1.104 times the floor, $6,959 above it. CoinGecko shows a 24-hour loss of 2.3% and a seven-day loss of 5.0%.

Bitcoin.com logged a fall from $75,690 to about $73,500 in roughly 15 minutes late Sunday, and Cointelegraph calls it the lowest print since August. CoinGlass counted $1.12 billion of liquidations in the 24 hours to 9:00 UTC. CoinDesk tied the move to Nvidia's board investigation of its chief executive and stalled talks with Iran, on a weekend with thin books.

Exchange balances rose 35,498 coins over 30 days to 2.70 million, per Coin Metrics through the box. MVRV reads 1.39, and realized capitalization sits 3.1% below its level a year ago.

The chain stands at block 975,106 on the box's last read, difficulty 148.36 trillion. The box's three-day median hashrate reads 989 exahash per second; CoinWarz shows 837. Blocks arrived 13 minutes 23 seconds apart on the box's average, well behind the 10-minute target. The retarget sits 638 blocks out, about 5.9 days, and the estimates still disagree: CoinWarz projects a 2.9% cut, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794310118058000&sa=E 6.4%. Binance shuts its mining pool Tuesday, per CoinDesk. The halving lies 74,894 blocks away, and cycle four stands 64.3% complete by Hashpoint arithmetic.

STRC and Strategy

STRC closed Friday at $99.84, 16 cents under par, and has not traded since. The run below par covers 122 sessions and 176 calendar days from the last close at or above $100 on May 14. The effective yield reads 12.02% on the 12.00% declared rate, and the box rates the at-the-market channel marginal. StockAnalysis lists today as an ex-dividend date under the new daily schedule. The box's escalator line still reads 2.40% stepping to 2.65%, the same artifact this publication flagged Sunday: it annualizes daily payments as semi-monthly ones.

Strategy's weekly filing is due this morning; an update to this edition follows when it lands. The November 2 filing stands: holdings of 849,327 coins at a $75,451 stated average. Saylor posted his tracker Sunday with the caption "Connecting the dots," per Bitcoin.com, a post that has preceded Monday filings before. MSTR closed Friday at $128.93, per StockAnalysis.

Each coin Strategy buys above $75,448 lifts its average. MSCI publishes its index review Wednesday with Strategy on the list of possible deletions, per crypto.news.

ETF flows and macro

Friday stands as the last settled session at minus $411.9 million, per TFTC: IBIT minus $403.0 million, Fidelity plus $42.8 million, Bitwise minus $20.5 million, ARKB minus $20.1 million, GBTC minus $11.1 million. The five sessions to Friday lost $1.28 billion, the worst week since late June, per SoSoValue via Cointelegraph. IBIT carried about 95% of it. TFTC carries cumulative inflow near $55.75 billion.

The supply pressure index slipped to minus 1.30 from minus 1.26. Over 30 days the funds sold more than Strategy bought, and the net outflow ran 1.3 times what the network mined.

The 10-year closed Friday at 4.86%, per FRED through the box, and Trading Economics shows it steady near 4.85% to 4.87% this morning. The 2-year reads 4.53% and the 30-year 5.26%. The 10-year real yield sits at 2.62%. The dollar index fell 0.46% to 101.83. CME FedWatch prices 78.8% odds of a December hike, per Cointelegraph, up from 76.8% on Saturday's count.

Today brings Bowman at 8:40 a.m. Eastern, Goolsbee at 10:00, the New York Fed's inflation expectations survey at 11:00 and a 3-year note auction at 1:00 p.m. October CPI lands Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.; CoinDesk lists a 0.2% monthly consensus against September's 0.6%. The bond market closes Wednesday for Veterans Day, and PPI follows Friday.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794310118058000&sa=E read 28 on November 8, up from 25. The Hashpoint structural composite read 25 a day behind, up from 24. The gap reads three points, and the needles still sit together in Fear.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. The box features Strategy's cushion: if Bitcoin holds Sunday's $74,754, Strategy's 849,327 coins sit 0.92% under their $75,448 cost, and the deficit halves at $75,101 (as of November 8).

The cushion flipped sign overnight, from plus 0.41% to minus 0.92%, the largest move against its own 30-day spread of the six scenarios. For the if-clause to fail, the coin needs $694 back. The power-law clock moved with it: at a flat $74,754 the rising floor meets the price on March 11, 2027, 123 days out, against 140 days on Saturday's read. The floor rises about $63 a day on that path, and a lower price leaves it less ground to cover.

The 10-year barely figures. The box's 90-day link reads an r-squared of 0.0011 over 61 sessions, so it flags the connection between the 10-year and Bitcoin as weak. STRC sits 16 cents from par; its escalator figures rest on the misread daily payments.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $74,754	0.92% under $75,448 cost; deficit
halves at $75,101	Was +0.41% above cost
Power-law clock	BTC holds $74,754	Floor meets price Mar 11, 2027, 123
days	Was Mar 27, 140 days
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC +0.41%, r-squared 0.0011, n 61
Was +0.44%, n 62
STRC to par	Pace holds at +$0.048 a session	Par in 4 sessions from
$99.84	Unchanged, no session
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds, through Nov 6	-629 BTC a day,
-1.40x issuance	Was -612, -1.36x
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $103,063, gap -27.5%	Was
$103,268, same models

The Bull View

• Bitcoin.com: Saylor posted his 849,327-coin chart Sunday captioned "Connecting the dots," a signal that has come before Monday purchases
• 24/7 Wall St: the Labor Department's 401(k) crypto rule sits in final White House review, with retirement flows possible in 2027
• CoinDesk: the 200-day average near $73,150 held as support on the overnight low of $73,761
• The Block: Bitcoin fell only 0.8% while Nvidia perpetuals dropped 3.8% on Hyperliquid, which one analyst read as limited spillover

The bull case leans on a buyer that keeps buying above its own cost and a long-term average that held overnight.

The Bear View

• Cointelegraph: Bitcoin fell to about $73,500, its lowest since August, with $1.12 billion liquidated and CME odds of a December hike at 78.8%
• TechTimes: about $715 million of longs liquidated in one hour Sunday as the price fell under Strategy's $75,451 average
• Cointelegraph: spot funds shed $1.28 billion in their worst week since late June, IBIT $1.21 billion of it
• CoinDesk: Nvidia fell more than 4% premarket on the chief executive allegations after the Nasdaq lost nearly 5% last week
• crypto.news: MSCI rules Wednesday on its index review, with Strategy among possible deletions

The bear case leans on fund selling, a hike priced for December and a price now under the cost of its largest holder.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin closed at 1.115 times its floor and 0.468 times its median. Saturday's cluster of cost lines broke on a Sunday flush. Strategy sits $694 a coin under water, and the recent buyers sit about $940 under theirs.

The bulls have the long averages right. The 200-day held, and the floor sits nearly $7,000 below. They have not answered the $1.28 billion of weekly fund selling, and the box's supply index at minus 1.30 says fund selling outran Strategy's buying by 1.3 times what miners produced. The bears have the flows and the hike odds right. They have not shown the 10-year driving the coin: the 10-year sat flat near 4.86% across the break, and the box rates the link at an r-squared of 0.0011. STRC, 16 cents from par, gave no signal at all because it has not traded since Friday.

The spring has not released; it has slipped down a notch. Three prints sit inside 48 hours. Strategy's filing this morning shows if it bought below cost. Tuesday's CPI tests the 10-year. A close back above $75,691 recovers both the company's cost and the recent buyers', and a close under $73,150 loses the 200-day.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of November 2, 2026, TFTC, SoSoValue via Cointelegraph, Coin Metrics via the box, Coinbase via the box, FRED via the box, CryptoQuant via Cointelegraph, CoinGlass via Cointelegraph, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794310118059000&sa=E, CoinWarz, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794310118059000&sa=E, Trading Economics, CME FedWatch via Cointelegraph, StockAnalysis, CoinGecko, CoinDesk, The Block, Bitcoin.com, TechTimes, 24/7 Wall St, crypto.news. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.