The Hashpoint for November 8, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 8, 2026

Three cost lines now sit inside $310 of one another, and Bitcoin rests on all three. The coin closed Saturday at $75,754. Strategy's 849,327 coins cost $75,448 each. Glassnode puts the cost basis of recent buyers near $75,700, per CryptoTicker. The crowd's mood and the Hashpoint's structural gauge read 25 and 24, a gap of one point. Both needles now sit in Extreme Fear, and the price sits on the cost of the people who bought it most recently.

Power law and network

The floor reads $66,998 and the median $159,518. Saturday's close put the coin at 1.131 times the floor and 0.475 times the median, $8,756 above the floor line. At 6:05 a.m. the coin traded at $75,808, up 0.07% from the close. CoinGecko puts the seven-day change at minus 3.0%, and Cointelegraph logged Friday's low at $74,762, the lowest print since August 21.

The weekend changed almost nothing in price. It changed more in the plumbing. Exchange balances rose 41,970 coins over 30 days to 2.71 million, per Coin Metrics through the box. MVRV reads 1.40, and realized capitalization sits 2.8% below its level a year ago.

The chain reached block 974,998 on a difficulty of 148.36 trillion. The box reads hashrate at 989 exahash per second, with a live three-day figure of 999. Blocks arrived every 10 minutes 29 seconds on the box's average, slower than target. The retarget sits 746 blocks out, about 5.4 days. CoinWarz estimates a 0.59% cut; https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794223405502000&sa=E estimates 4.6%. The halving lies 75,002 blocks away, and the cycle stands 64.3% complete by Hashpoint arithmetic.

STRC and Strategy

STRC closed Friday at $99.84, 16 cents short of par, and StockAnalysis shows the same close. The run below par covers 122 sessions and 176 calendar days from the last close at or above $100, on May 14, to Friday. Bitbo reports an intraday touch of $100 on November 4, the first since May; no session closed there. The effective yield reads 12.02% on the 12.00% declared rate. The box rates the at-the-market channel marginal.

Shareholders approved daily dividends on October 28 with 99.3% of votes cast, per Yahoo Finance. STRC now pays $0.03 or $0.04 a share each day, $1.00 for November, according to Bitcoin Treasuries. That explains a box bug this publication has flagged all week. The box treats each daily payment as a semi-monthly one, so Friday's $0.10 entry reads as a 2.40% annual rate. Strategy's rate stays 12.00%.

No 8-K landed over the weekend. The November 2 filing stands: 811 coins at $80,846, holdings of 849,327, a $75,451 stated average, and $208.2 million of STRC repurchased. MSTR closed Friday at $128.93, down 0.29%, per StockAnalysis. At Saturday's close the stack is worth $64.34 billion against a $64.08 billion cost, a $260 million margin.

MSCI decides Wednesday on its index review, with Strategy among the possible removals, per CryptoTicker.

ETF flows and macro

The Block reports that spot Bitcoin funds flipped negative for 2026 after a $1.28 billion outflow week, the worst since June. Its year-to-date tally moved to minus $914.1 million from plus $368 million. TFTC confirms Friday at minus $411.9 million: IBIT minus $403.0 million, Fidelity plus $42.8 million, Bitwise minus $20.5 million, ARKB minus $20.1 million, GBTC minus $11.1 million. IBIT lost $1.21 billion across the five sessions. The box carries cumulative inflow at $55.77 billion through Friday.

The supply pressure index fell to minus 1.26 from minus 1.10. Institutions sold a net 17,024 coins over 30 days while miners produced 13,500.

The 10-year closed Friday at 4.87%, per Trading Economics, after touching 4.9% on the payroll report. The 2-year ended at 4.52% and the 30-year at 5.27%. The 10-year real yield rose to 2.62%. The dollar index gained 0.72% to 102.28. CME FedWatch put December hike odds at 76.8%, up from 66.9% a week earlier, per 24/7 Wall St.

October CPI arrives Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. StockTitan reports the release will carry no year-over-year rate, a gap the 2025 shutdown left, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast reads 0.24% on the month. Claims follow Thursday and PPI Friday. Thriveinmarkets lists the Treasury market closed Wednesday for Veterans Day.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index from https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794223405503000&sa=E read 25 on November 7, down from 28. The Hashpoint structural composite read 24 a day behind. In late September the crowd ran 36 points above the structure. The crowd has now come down to meet it.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run each morning on the box's data. The box features the yield shock today: if the 10-year rose 25 basis points, the last 90 days' link says Bitcoin moves up 0.44%, and down 0.44% on a 25-point fall (window August 11 to November 6).

The sign runs against the thesis, and the link carries almost no weight. The r-squared reads 0.0013 over 62 sessions, so the box flags the 90-day connection between the 10-year and Bitcoin as weak. Friday supplied the test case: yields rose 3 basis points on a hot payroll print and Bitcoin moved less than a third of a percent. Tuesday's CPI gives the link another session. The estimate rose from 0.25% yesterday because the window dropped a session, a change in sample rather than in market behavior.

STRC sits 16 cents from par. The box's escalator line reads 2.65% next from 2.40%, both computed from daily payments the box misreads.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
Yield shock	10-year rises 25 bp	BTC +0.44%, r-squared 0.0013, n 62
Was +0.25%, n 63
STRC to par	Pace holds at +$0.048 a session	Par in 4 sessions from
$99.84	Unchanged, no session
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $75,754	0.41% above $75,448; halves at
$75,601	Was 0.4%, $75,590
Power-law clock	BTC holds $75,754	Floor meets price Mar 27, 2027, 140
days	Was Mar 26, 140 days
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds, through Nov 6	-612 BTC a day,
-1.36x issuance	Was -538, -1.20x
Theory drift	BTC flat 90 days	Median $103,268, gap -26.6%	Was
$103,328, same models

The Bull View

• Bitcoin Magazine: the Labor Department rule to allow crypto in 401(k) plans reached the White House for final review, with a $12 trillion market behind it
• Bitbo: STRC touched $100 intraday on November 4 for the first time since May, up from a $71.25 June low
• CryptoTicker: Glassnode puts the short-term holder cost basis at $75,700, inside a $73,000 to $76,000 support band
• CoinDesk: Wintermute names $80,000 as the level that would signal renewed strength, about 5.5% above Saturday's close

The bull case leans on a policy door opening for retirement money and a price that has held at the cost of its newest buyers.

The Bear View

• The Block: spot Bitcoin funds turned negative for 2026 at minus $914.1 million after a $1.28 billion outflow week
• 24/7 Wall St: December hike odds jumped to 76.8% from 66.9% after 165,000 payrolls
• CoinDesk: more than $1 billion of long bets liquidated in 24 hours as ETF flows gave the spot market no help
• Cointelegraph: Bitcoin dipped to $74,762, its lowest since August 21, with one analyst flagging $69,000 if $75,500 fails
• CryptoTicker: MSCI rules Wednesday on its index review, with Strategy and Metaplanet possible removals
• The Block: Binance's CFO stepped down nine days after a hack that took more than $6 billion

The bear case leans on the largest fund heading for the exit while markets price a December hike.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin closed at 1.131 times its floor and 0.475 times its median. The price, Strategy's average cost and the recent buyers' cost basis sit inside $310. That cluster is the spring this week: a close under $75,448 puts Strategy's stack under cost and recent buyers under water together.

The bulls have the floor right. The coin sits $8,756 above it, STRC sits 16 cents from par, and the 401(k) rule offers a new channel. They have not answered $1.28 billion of weekly fund selling or the 41,970 coins that returned to exchanges in a month. The bears have the flows right. They have not shown the 10-year moving the coin; the box rates that link at an r-squared of 0.0013.

The mood gap that opened on August 20 has closed to one point. Tuesday's CPI tests the 10-year at 4.87%, and Wednesday's MSCI ruling tests Strategy's place in the indexes. The disconfirming print sits close by: a STRC close at $100 ends the 122-session run, and a Bitcoin close above $80,000 lifts the price clear of every cost line.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard, Strategy Form 8-K of November 2, 2026, TFTC, The Block, Coin Metrics via the box, Coinbase via the box, FRED via the box, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794223405503000&sa=E, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794223405503000&sa=E, Trading Economics, CME FedWatch via 24/7 Wall St, StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin Treasuries, Bitbo, CoinGecko, CoinWarz, CryptoTicker, StockTitan, Thriveinmarkets, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Bitcoin Magazine. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.