The Hashpoint for November 13, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 13, 2026

Bitcoin came within half a percent of its power-law floor overnight. Bloomberg puts the low at $67,628, the weakest print since August 19, against a floor the box sets at $67,297 for November 12. At 6:05 a.m. the box's Coinbase read showed $69,248, down 2.97% from Thursday's $71,370 close, or 1.03 times the floor and 0.43 times the median. A day ago the multiple read 1.09. The 10-year sits at 5.13%, STRC closed at $99.96 in session 126 under par, and Strategy's stack sits 8.2% under cost.

Power law and network

The box's November 12 bands put the floor at $67,297 and the median at $160,232. The 6:05 price sits $1,950 above the floor line, down from $6,135 yesterday. Bloomberg's low came to 1.005 times the floor by Hashpoint arithmetic.

CoinGecko shows $68,786 this morning, down 6.3% in a day and 9.1% in a week, with a 24-hour range of $67,922 to $73,539.

The Block counts $1.47 billion of liquidations in 24 hours, $1.31 billion of them longs, per CoinGlass.

The network retargets tonight. Mempool.space projects an 8.36% cut at height 975,744 around 9:00 p.m. Eastern, with 102 blocks left at the read. CoinWarz projects 8.1%, to 136.35 trillion from 148.36 trillion. The box reads hashrate at 901 exahash per second for November 12, with a three-day median of 982. The chain sits 64.6% through the halving cycle, 74,391 blocks from block 1,050,000.

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STRC and Strategy

STRC closed Thursday at $99.96 on the box's Nasdaq series, three cents under Wednesday's $99.99. The run below par reached 126 sessions, and the last close at or above $100 came on May 14, 182 calendar days ago. The declared rate holds at 12.00%, an effective 12.005% at the close. The box flags the issuance window as marginal. Strategy filed no 8-K in the past 24 hours.

The common took the MSCI news hard. The Block puts MSTR's Thursday close at $114.41, down about 6.5%, from $122.35. 24/7 Wall St. reports no new statement from Strategy on the final decision, which takes effect after the November 30 close.

The November 9 filing stands: 850,364 coins at a $75,456 average, $64.16 billion in cost. At $69,248 the position is worth $58.89 billion, $6,208 a coin and about $5.28 billion under cost by Hashpoint arithmetic. Yesterday that gap ran $1.77 billion.

Macro and ETF flows

The curve moved against the coin again. Trading Economics shows the 10-year at 5.13%, the 2-year at 4.86% and the 30-year at 5.46% this morning. The 10-year real yield reads 2.88%, up 9 basis points Thursday. Thursday's $25 billion 30-year auction stopped at 5.441% against 5.437% when-issued, a 0.4 basis point tail, per Gokhshtein. TokenPost reports a 2.401 bid-to-cover, with dealers taking their largest share since June.

The dollar index holds above 103, its highest since April 2025, at 103.2 on Trading Economics. BeInCrypto cites CME FedWatch at 88.7% for a 25 basis point hike on December 9 and 11.3% for 50. October producer prices land this morning. The Block ties the overnight slide to the hike path and to Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia's chief executive.

Spot funds lost $299.8 million on Wednesday on the box's Farside series, a fifth straight outflow. Farside's preliminary Thursday print, via Cointelegraph, shows $47.7 million out with BlackRock and Fidelity still pending. Cumulative inflow stands at $55.17 billion through Wednesday. The box's supply pressure reading fell to minus 2.04 from minus 1.49.

Market mood reads 28 on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794655314429000&sa=E for November 12; Cointelegraph reports the index at 20 on Friday, its lowest since July 8. The Hashpoint structural composite reads 23, Extreme Fear, as of November 11.

The Daily Experiment

This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run on the box's data. If Bitcoin holds Thursday's $71,370 close, Strategy's 850,364 coins sit 5.4% under their $75,456 cost, a $60.69 billion position against $64.17 billion paid, as of November 12.

The cushion read minus 2.0% on yesterday's run, so one session cut it by 3.4 points, the largest move of the six against its own 30-day spread. The if-clause already fails at the 6:05 price, which puts the gap near 8.2%. STRC moved the same way: the box's ten-session pace reads minus $0.003 a session, so the par scenario says "never" where it said two sessions yesterday. The yield link stays weak, with an r-squared of 0.0016 over 61 sessions.

Scenario	If	Then	Since yesterday
Strategy cushion	BTC holds $71,370	5.4% under $75,456 cost	from
-2.0%
Power-law clock	Price stays flat	Meets floor Jan 18, 2027, 67 days
from 108 days
STRC to par	-$0.003 a session holds	Never reaches par; rule reads
12.25%	from 2 sessions
ETF absorption	30-day pace holds	-989 BTC a day, -2.20x issuance
from -1.65x
Theory drift	BTC holds $71,370	+90d median $102,720, gap -30.5%
from -28.0%, same models
Yield shock	10-year +25 bp	BTC -0.48%, r-squared 0.00, n 61	from
+0.07%

Theory drift kept the same six models, so its move reflects price alone. The STRC step is the box's structural reading of the rule, not a company statement.

The Bull View

• The Block: JPMorgan's 13F shows a 36% larger MSTR stake and IBIT shares worth about $540 million
• BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance: price is testing the 200-week average near $67,975
• Business Today: WazirX's Nischal Shetty puts Bitcoin's RSI near 29, an oversold reading
• Mempool.space and CoinWarz: both project a difficulty cut above 8% tonight
• TechFlow via KuCoin: Metaplanet's Simon Gerovich says MSCI's change does not alter his accumulation plan

The bull case leans on a forced-selling flush at a long-term average, with large holders still adding.

The Bear View

• Bloomberg via Free Malaysia Today: Bitcoin fell as much as 5.4% to $67,628, its lowest since August 19, after a 3.8% drop Thursday
• The Block: $1.47 billion liquidated in 24 hours, $1.31 billion of it longs, as Nvidia's chief executive resigned
• The Block: MSTR closed at $114.41, down about 6.5%, a day after MSCI confirmed the deletion
• TokenPost: the 30-year auction drew a 2.401 bid-to-cover and lifted the 10-year above 5.10% intraday
• Business Today: Mudrex's Prateek Gupta cites a $14.2 billion drop in stablecoin supply over 30 days
• Bloomberg via Free Malaysia Today: BTSE's Jeff Mei says a 50 basis point hike would leave "more room to fall"

The bear case leans on a rising rate path and a corporate buyer now under cost.

The Hashpoint read

Bitcoin trades at 1.03 times its floor and 0.43 times its median, with the 10-year at 5.13% and STRC four cents under par.

The bulls get the location right. Price touched within $331 of the floor line, and $1.31 billion of longs closed in a day, which clears borrowed positions rather than conviction. They miss the funding channel. STRC slipped three cents on a day the common fell 6.5%, and the box's pace reads "never" to par. With the stack $5.28 billion under cost, the largest corporate bid heads toward its November 30 index exit with a narrow equity window.

The bears get the rate leg right this week: a soft 30-year auction and a 2.88% real yield lined up with the slide. They still owe the box's own link. Its 90-day r-squared reads 0.0016, so the 10-year explains almost none of Bitcoin's daily moves this quarter, and the selling tracked liquidations and fund redemptions more than yields.

The spring sits nearly flat against the floor this morning. The next confirming print for the thesis is a STRC close under $99.96 with the 10-year above 5.10%. The disconfirming print is a Bitcoin close back above Strategy's $75,456 cost.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (HASHPOINT DATA email of November 13, bands, STRC and experiments as of November 12), Strategy Form 8-K of November 9, 2026, The Block, Bloomberg via Free Malaysia Today and Business Today, Cointelegraph, BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance, 24/7 Wall St., TechFlow via KuCoin, TokenPost, Gokhshtein, Trading Economics, CME FedWatch via BeInCrypto, Farside via the box and Cointelegraph, CoinGecko, CoinGlass, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794655314429000&sa=E, CoinWarz, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794655314429000&sa=E. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.