The Hashpoint for September 9, 2026
September 9, 2026 · Dennis W. Davis
Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 9, 2026
Summer is over. School is back in, the desks on Wall Street are full again, and Bitcoin opens the first full week of September at $78,610, down 1.0% on the day and up 0.7% on the week. Three months ago, on June 28, it printed $59,474, a number that sits at 0.94 times today's power-law floor of $63,486. The rally out of that floor took price to $82,300 on September 3 and then stalled. What remains is a market that has moved sideways for a week on top of a summer spent on the floor, with the largest corporate buyer idle and $770.2 million of fresh ETF money in four sessions, against the highest 10-year yield in three years. That is a coiled spring. This edition opens the daily series by measuring the coil.
The summer box
The June 28 print of $59,474 marked the low end of a summer Bitcoin spent testing the model's floor. Today's Hashpoint bands read floor $63,486, median $151,158 and ceiling $453,474. At $78,610 the price-to-floor multiple is 1.24 and the price-to-median multiple is 0.52. The band coordinate reads 0.108, which puts price in the lower tenth of the envelope even after a 32% move off the June low. The June 29 forecast card, generated at $59,474, called for $78,410 by September 27; price sits $200 above that mark 18 days early, which reads as confirmation of the envelope's slope rather than a signal about what comes next.
The network spent the summer just as still. Hashrate sits near 934 EH/s and reads flat on the 30-day average. Difficulty stands at 127.45 trillion after a 1.31% upward retarget at block 965,664, with the next retarget on September 19 projecting to roughly +1.99% and 1,491 blocks to go. Hashprice at $39.63 per petahash per day is 22% above its level 30 days ago, almost all of it price rather than difficulty. Miners have not added machines into this rally. The market has simply paid more for the ones already running.
What woke up
The ETF desks came back first. September 3 brought $730.9 million of net inflow, the best single session since January 14, with IBIT taking $454.0 million and ARKB $137.7 million against small outflows from HODL and BTCW. September 4 added $174.6 million, IBIT $117.4 million and FBTC $57.2 million, with no fund in redemption. Month to date the complex holds $770.2 million over four sessions, one of them negative. Cumulative net inflow since launch on the Hashpoint tracker stands at $55.64 billion.
The dashboard's raw supply-pressure estimate reads 3.55: 47,909 BTC of institutional 30-day accumulation against 13,500 BTC of new issuance. That figure carries the 4,603 BTC Strategy bought in late August, and the backtest engine has not yet validated it, so treat it as the top of the demand range rather than a settled reading. Strive added 1,375 BTC at $79,281 to reach 24,531, and Capital B bought 376 BTC to reach 3,521. Real coins, small numbers.
The bond market woke up too, and that is the other side of the spring. The 10-year Treasury yields 4.81%, its highest since October 2023 and up about 10 basis points on the month. The 30-year sits at 5.25%. The 10-year TIPS real yield of 2.43% is the figure a non-yielding asset competes against every session. Oil near $100 a barrel and renewed US strikes on Iran keep inflation in the picture, with the dashboard's inputs showing headline CPI at 3.3% against 2.47% core.
Where the spring is pinned
Strategy is the pin. The 8-K filed Tuesday covers August 31 through September 7: Strategy repurchased 1,810,885 STRC shares for $176.3 million at roughly $97.36 each and acquired zero BTC, leaving holdings flat at 845,050 with an average cost of $75,412. One week earlier Strategy had bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million at $80,318, its first purchase in two months. The restart lasted one week. Strategy then doubled its Digital Credit Securities repurchase authorization from $1 billion to $2 billion, leaving $1.19 billion available, and reported a $5.10 billion dollar reserve plus $1.44 billion in cash as of September 7. MSTR closed Tuesday at $142.80, up 1.39%.
STRC closed Tuesday at $98.04, $1.96 under its $100 par. The Hashpoint STRC panel shows zero sessions at or above par in the last 30 and marks the ATM closed. The last close at or above $100 came on May 11, 121 days ago. The declared coupon is 12.00% on the stated amount, held since July 1 and committed through September until the stock shows sustained trading near par, which puts the effective yield at $98.04 at 12.24%.
Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly reset schedule is the binding constraint. Bond yields move daily and STRC's coupon moves monthly, so the largest institutional bid in the market stays impaired for the full lag every time the 10-year steps up. Strategy's cash is the only tool defending par in the meantime, and every dollar of buyback at $97 is a dollar that did not become Bitcoin at $78,000. That $2 billion authorization is the price of the lag, measured in dollars.
The Hashpoint read
Price sits at 1.24 times the power-law floor and 0.52 times the median. The demand side has a bid, with ETF inflows covering issuance several times over on the raw estimate. The cap is a 10-year at 4.81% and a corporate buyer spending on its own paper instead of coins. A coiled spring says nothing about direction; it says the energy is stored, and the numbers above say where.
The calendar releases it in stages. No US data prints today. PPI arrives Thursday at 8:30 AM ET and CPI on Friday at 8:30 AM ET. The FOMC meets September 15 and 16 with markets pricing roughly a 60% chance of a hike, and difficulty retargets on September 19. The confirming data point for the accumulation engine is a STRC close at or above $100.00, which would reopen the ATM and put Strategy back on the bid. The disconfirming one is a 10-year yield above 4.90% into Friday's CPI print, which would push STRC further from par at exactly the moment the coupon cannot move. Every daily edition from here measures the same spring against the same two numbers.
Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, STRC, ETF cumulative flows, supply pressure, synthesis), The Block, Benzinga, The Coin Republic, CoinMarketCap, Yahoo Finance, Fortune, CoinWarz, Cryptolexicon, TFTC, Trading Economics, Kiplinger, strcincome.com. Nothing here is investment advice.
