The Hashpoint for September 10, 2026
September 10, 2026 · Dennis W. Davis
Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 10, 2026
The spring lost a little tension overnight and STRC lost a little ground. Bitcoin printed $78,160 in the early hours of Thursday, down 0.4% from Monday's $78,439 close and down 3.8% from the $81,272 close of September 3, the day the ETF desks came back. STRC closed Wednesday at $97.75, seven cents under Tuesday's $97.82 and $2.25 under its $100 par. Against the Hashpoint floor of $63,486 that puts price at 1.23 times the floor and 0.52 times the $151,158 median. One session changed nothing about the coil. It changed the direction of the last few turns.
The box, one day older
The week's range has narrowed. Since the September 3 spike to $82,262 intraday, each daily high has come in lower: $81,433 on the 4th, $80,531 on the 6th, $80,432 on the 7th, $79,463 on the 8th, and $78,409 in Thursday's early trade. The lows have held above $77,600. That is a wedge, not a break, and it sits entirely inside the lower tenth of the envelope. The floor multiple has slipped from 1.24 to 1.23 in one session. The median multiple has not moved at the second decimal.
The bands themselves carry a caveat this morning. The dashboard did not answer this run's requests, so the floor and median above come from Wednesday's read. A power-law floor drifts by roughly a tenth of a percent per day, which is smaller than the rounding in the multiples. The read stands. The hashrate and difficulty panels did not refresh either; the last confirmed figures put hashrate near 934 EH/s and difficulty at 127.45 trillion, with the next retarget due September 19.
The pin slips a notch
STRC's Wednesday close of $97.75 came on a previous close of $97.82, a move of seven cents. After-hours trade lifted it to $97.89. The count of sessions since the last close at or above $100 now reads 122, dating to May 11. Strategy has held the coupon at 12.00% since July 1 and confirmed on September 1 that it will keep the rate there until the stock shows sustained, healthy trading near $100. At $97.75, that fixed 12.00% coupon yields 12.28% to a buyer at the market.
Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the gap between a daily bond market and a monthly STRC reset is the binding constraint on the accumulation engine. Wednesday's move shows the mechanism in miniature. The coupon did not move. The price did. Every cent STRC gives up between resets widens the yield the next buyer demands and lengthens the time the ATM stays shut. Strategy's buyback, authorized at $2 billion with $1.19 billion available as of Tuesday's 8-K, is the only tool that works inside the month, and it spends dollars on paper that would otherwise buy coins.
No new Strategy filing turned up in this run's searches. Holdings stand at 845,050 BTC, the figure confirmed in Tuesday's 8-K and repeated in coverage of the September coupon decision. The last purchase remains the 4,603 BTC bought in late August at $80,318. Bitcoin has traded under that average price for four of the six sessions since. The restart that lasted one week has now been idle for two.
What the desks could not confirm
This edition carries a gap it will not paper over. Wednesday's ETF flow tally, the 10-year yield, the 30-year, the TIPS real yield and the dollar index all sit behind data sources this run could not reach. The last confirmed reads, from Wednesday's edition, put the 10-year at 4.81%, the 30-year at 5.25%, the real yield at 2.43% and month-to-date ETF inflow at $770.2 million across four sessions. The bond figures are the other half of the spring, and a day without them is a day the coil goes measured on one side only.
The calendar fills the hole with a schedule. PPI prints this morning at 8:30 AM ET, CPI follows Friday at 8:30 AM ET, and the FOMC meets September 15 and 16 with markets pricing a hike as more likely than not at last read. STRC's semi-monthly dividend period begins September 16, the same day the Fed decides. A coupon fixed on the 1st and a policy rate set on the 16th bracket the exact lag Hashpoint measures.
The Hashpoint read
Price sits at 1.23 times the power-law floor and 0.52 times the median. The spring has not released. It has settled a few turns, with Bitcoin off 3.8% from its September 3 close and STRC $2.25 under par and drifting the wrong way for the accumulation engine. The demand side still holds its last confirmed bid of $770.2 million in ETF money, and the corporate buyer still holds its cash.
The next confirming data point is the same as Wednesday's: a STRC close at or above $100.00, which reopens the ATM and puts Strategy back on the bid. The next disconfirming one arrives in stages, starting with this morning's PPI at 8:30 AM ET and Friday's CPI. A hot print that lifts the 10-year above 4.90% pushes STRC further from par during the one week when its coupon cannot answer. Wednesday's seven-cent slip is a small number. The direction is what the spring records.
Data: Yahoo Finance (BTC-USD daily history, STRC quote), CoinLaw (Strategy September STRC coupon notice), Bitcoin Hashpoint September 9 edition for the power-law bands, network, ETF, and yield figures the dashboard and data sites did not return this morning. Nothing here is investment advice.
