The Hashpoint for September 13, 2026
September 13, 2026 · Dennis W. Davis
Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 13, 2026
The weekend changed nothing and confirmed everything. Bitcoin trades at $77,207 this Sunday morning, down 0.08% in 24 hours and down 3.43% on the week, $79 under Saturday's read. The Hashpoint dashboard answered today and put the power-law floor at $63,658 and the median at $151,567, so price sits at 1.21 times the floor and 0.51 times the median. STRC last printed $97.83 on Friday, $2.17 under par, and the 10-year closed the week at 4.93%. Three days separate this edition from a Fed decision that the market prices at 85% for a hike, and 18 days separate it from the first date STRC's coupon can respond. That gap is the structure of this week.
Two numbers, one calendar
effective yield on a 12.00% coupon that cannot reset until October 1.
STRC ended the week at $97.83, down 0.19% on Friday's session. A buyer at that price collects 12.27% on the fixed 12.00% coupon that Strategy set for September record dates. Friday made 125 days since the last close at or above $100, dating to May 11. The dashboard's own STRC card still carries the September 8 observation at $98.04 with the ATM state closed and zero days above par in the trailing 30, so the coupon-lag reading has not changed by a cent that matters.
after touching nearly 5%, with the 30-year at 5.37% on Thursday and DXY flat at 99.10.
The 10-year settled at 4.93% Friday after a run toward 5% earlier in the week, per Quartz. The 30-year sat at 5.37% on Thursday's Forbes Advisor read. The dollar index closed Friday at 99.10, down 0.03%, so the yield move again ran without the dollar. CME FedWatch, as relayed by Bitcoin News Digest, prices Wednesday's 25 basis point hike at 85.4%; a second read this morning put it at 87%. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing lag on STRC's coupon is the structural fact of the month. This week the lag gets its test: policy can move on September 16, and STRC's rate stays at 12.00% until October 1 regardless of what the statement says.
Four red days and a Monday filing
million on Friday, the fourth straight outflow day, with IBIT out $19.2 million and MSBT in $3.8 million.
Friday's ETF tape closed the week's fourth consecutive outflow at $13.3 million. IBIT gave up $19.2 million, the day's largest redemption. Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $3.8 million and VanEck's HODL $2.2 million; every other fund printed zero. The four-day deficit from September 8 through 11 reads $462.7 million against roughly $1 billion of inflows the prior week. Cumulative net inflow since launch stands at $55.22 billion on the dashboard.
The dashboard's 30-day supply pressure ratio reads 3.39 as of Friday, up from 3.37 on Thursday: institutions absorbed 45,777 BTC against 13,500 BTC of new issuance. That ratio measures the trailing month, and the trailing month still includes Strategy's late-August 4,603 BTC purchase. Monday's 8-K settles what September adds to the numerator.
filing; Monday's 8-K shows if a second straight week went to STRC buybacks instead of coins.
No Strategy filing arrived over the weekend. Holdings stand at 845,050 BTC on the dashboard's September 8 filing record. The September 8 8-K showed zero Bitcoin bought in the week to September 7 and $176.3 million spent buying back STRC. The filing due Monday covers the week the 10-year touched 4.99%. Two weeks of zero coins would put the throttle on the balance sheet itself, not only on the preferred's price.
The box, refreshed
the live power-law floor of $63,658 and 0.51 times the median of $151,567.
Today's bands come from the live dashboard rather than Friday's carry. The floor rose $57 to $63,658, the median $136 to $151,567, and the ceiling $409 to $454,701, the daily drift of a curve that climbs while price stands still. Price moved $79 against Saturday. The floor multiple slipped from 1.22 to 1.21 because the floor climbed, not because price fell. The dashboard's cumulative position reads 0.098, the lowest tenth of the band. The week's range ran from $76,001 to $79,890 by Bitcoin News Digest's exchange survey, and the low never came within $12,000 of the floor.
with difficulty at 127.45 trillion and the September 19 retarget estimated at +3.54%.
The network keeps producing blocks ahead of schedule. CoinWarz reads 955 EH/s this morning at block 966,781, and its retarget estimate for September 19 eased to +3.54%, or about 131.96 trillion, from +4.27% on Saturday, with 877 blocks to go. Difficulty holds at 127.45 trillion. Miners are adding hash into a price that has spent five weeks inside the same $4,000 box.
The week ahead
The calendar does the work this week. Sunday at 6:00 PM ET the weekly candle closes, and a close near $77,000 prints a second straight down week from $79,668, the 50-week average. Monday brings the Strategy 8-K. Tuesday at 2:15 PM ET the Senate holds its cloture vote on the CLARITY Act. Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET the FOMC decides, with the quiet period holding every Fed voice silent until then. None of those four events can move STRC's coupon before October 1.
The Hashpoint read
median, STRC at $97.83, the 10-year at 4.93%, and a Fed decision three days out.
Price sits at 1.21 times the power-law floor and 0.51 times the median on live bands. STRC is $2.17 under par with 18 days of coupon lock remaining. The 10-year is 4.93% with an 85% hike probability for Wednesday. ETF desks sold for four days and stopped selling hard on the fifth. Every constraint on the spring stayed in place across the weekend, and the spring kept its position to within $79.
The next confirming data point is Monday's 8-K: zero Bitcoin purchases for a second week with nine-figure STRC buyback spending confirms that the lag throttles accumulation at the source. The next disconfirming one is a STRC close at or above $100.00 before Wednesday, which reopens the ATM ahead of the Fed. Between those two prints, the FOMC statement sets the size of the gap that October 1 has to close.
Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (bands, cumulative position, supply pressure, STRC card, holdings), Coinbase, CoinWarz, TradingView, StockAnalysis, Strategy, TFTC/Farside, Quartz, Forbes Advisor, Yahoo Finance, UseTheBitcoin, Bitcoin News Digest, Coingabbar. Nothing here is investment advice.
