The Hashpoint for September 15, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 15, 2026

The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% this morning for the first time since July 2007, printing 5.017% at the European open, and Strategy's Monday 8-K showed a second straight week with zero Bitcoin bought and $139.3 million spent buying back its own preferred. Those two facts sit on opposite ends of the same spring. Bitcoin trades at $77,001 at 6:25 AM Eastern, down 0.94% in 24 hours and down 1.71% on the week, after an overnight high of $79,530 that faded within hours. Against the power-law bands carried from Sunday's dashboard read, a $63,658 floor and a $151,567 median, price sits at 1.21 times the floor and 0.51 times the median. STRC's last confirmed close is $98.64, $1.36 under par, and the preferred goes ex-dividend today on a $0.50 payment.

The bond crossed the line the preferred cannot answer

morning, up 2.9 basis points from a 4.988% close, with the 30-year at 5.38%, TIPS at 2.65%, and DXY at 99.61.

Trading Economics puts the 10-year at 5.017% at 6:25 AM Eastern, up 2.9 basis points from Monday's 4.988% close. CNBC and Bloomberg both date the level to July 2007. The 30-year sits at 5.38%, up 3.3 basis points. The 10-year TIPS real yield reads 2.65%, up 6.2 basis points on the session and up 22 basis points from the 2.43% that opened this series on September 9. The dollar index rose 0.22% to 99.61, a second consecutive session of dollar strength after three weeks of yield moves that ran without it.

A real yield of 2.65% is the number a zero-yield coin competes against every session. It is also the number a fixed 12.00% coupon competes against, and that coupon cannot move until October 1. Since the September 9 edition the 10-year has stepped from 4.81% to 5.02% while STRC's rate stayed exactly where Strategy set it on July 1.

under par, for a 12.17% effective yield; the preferred trades ex-dividend today on a $0.50 payment.

STRC's last confirmed close remains Friday's $98.64, per Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis, both of which still carry September 11 as their newest session. TradingView shows $98.91 with the market closed, which would be Monday's print if the feed is current; that feed served a stale number in the September 12 and 13 editions, so this edition treats $98.91 as provisional and $98.64 as the confirmed mark. Friday's close made 123 days since the last close at or above par on May 11; today is day 127.

Today is also the ex-dividend and record date for a $0.50 per share payment, paid September 30. The mechanical drop on an ex date is the size of the dividend, so a $98.64 close implies $98.14 before any market bid. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that ex dates show a preferred's market bid at its true depth, and this month that test arrives with the 10-year above 5%.

Strategy bought paper again

average cost after a second straight 8-K with zero coins and a $139.3 million STRC buyback.

Monday's 8-K, covering September 8 through 13, reports 1,420,467 STRC shares repurchased for $139.3 million, an average near $98.06 per share, per The Block and CoinLaw. Bitcoin holdings stayed at 845,050 for a second consecutive week, on an aggregate cost of $63.73 billion and a $75,412 average. Strategy sold no shares under its at-the-market programs. The dollar reserve stood at $5.10 billion and discretionary cash at $1.30 billion as of September 14, down from $1.44 billion a week earlier. The preferred buyback authorization has $1.05 billion left of the $2 billion Strategy approved on September 8.

Two weeks of buybacks now total $315.6 million across 3.23 million STRC shares, and zero Bitcoin. The September 14 edition named this outcome as the confirming data point for the coupon-lag thesis, and it arrived on schedule. The cash that would have become roughly 4,100 coins at this morning's price went instead to holding a preferred within $2 of par. MSTR closed Friday at $130.97, down 4.7% on the week, per The Block.

Desks came back on Monday

$159.9 million Monday, ending a four-day outflow run, with IBIT in $134.3 million and FBTC out $53.3 million.

Monday's tape flipped. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $159.9 million net, per Bitcoin Sistemi's Farside read, ending the four-session outflow run that drained $462.7 million from September 8 through 11. IBIT led with $134.3 million in. Morgan Stanley's MSBT added $9.7 million and Franklin's EZBC $4.6 million. FBTC gave up $53.3 million and ARKB $42.0 million, so the day's net came from one fund covering two sellers. The dashboard's supply pressure ratio went unread again this morning; the last live print was 3.39 on September 13.

The ETF bid returned on the day the corporate bid stayed away from coins. One buyer answers daily prices; the other answers a monthly coupon.

The box, the hash, and the vote

the carried power-law floor of $63,658 and 0.51 times the median of $151,567.

The Hashpoint dashboard did not answer this morning's fetch, so the bands carry from Sunday's live read: floor $63,658, median $151,567, ceiling $454,701. Price moved $817 lower against Monday's $77,818 read, and the floor multiple slipped from 1.22 to 1.21. CoinGecko's 24-hour range runs $77,321 to $79,530.

EH/s on CoinWarz's live estimate, with difficulty at 127.45 trillion and a September 19 retarget estimated at +3.96%.

CoinWarz's live estimate reads 1.05 ZH/s at block 967,099, up from 866 EH/s on Monday's read; the live figure swings with block luck. Difficulty holds at 127.45 trillion until the retarget at 5:35 AM UTC on September 19, now estimated at +3.96% to 132.5 trillion with 569 blocks to go and the cycle averaging 9 minutes 37 seconds per block. Monday's estimate was +3.09%.

The Senate votes on cloture for the CLARITY Act at 2:15 PM Eastern, needing 60 from a chamber where Republicans hold 53 seats. Polymarket prices passage into law by April 2027 at 31%, Kalshi at 45%, per TheStreet. Kiplinger lists one release today, the Empire State index at 8:30 AM. The FOMC statement comes Wednesday at 2:00 PM, with Chair Warsh at 2:30. No Fed speeches are scheduled today.

The Hashpoint read

median, STRC at $98.64 confirmed, the 10-year at 5.017%, and a second zero-coin 8-K on the books.

Price sits at 1.21 times the power-law floor and 0.51 times the median on carried bands. STRC's confirmed mark is $1.36 under par, with a $0.50 dividend coming off the price today and 16 days of coupon lock left. The 10-year is 5.017% and the real yield 2.65%. The ETF desks bought $159.9 million; the corporate desk bought $139.3 million of its own paper and no coins. The spring lost 21 basis points of slack at the bond since September 9 and gained none at the preferred.

The next confirming data point is STRC's close today: a finish under $98.00 after the ex-date drop, with the 10-year holding above 5%, shows the market bid alone does not hold the preferred near par while the coupon waits. The next disconfirming one is a close at $98.64 or better on the ex date, which would mean buyers absorbed both the dividend and the yield move without Strategy's cash showing in the tape until next Monday's filing.

Data: Coinbase, CoinGecko, CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, TradingView, The Block, CoinLaw, Bitcoin Sistemi/Farside, TFTC, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, CNBC, TheStreet, Kiplinger, Coingabbar; power-law bands carried from the Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard's September 13 read. Nothing here is investment advice.