The Hashpoint for September 16, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 16, 2026

STRC went ex-dividend Tuesday on a $0.50 payment, which sets the mechanical mark at $98.41 against Monday's $98.91 close. The preferred closed at $97.14. That is $1.27 below what the dividend alone explains and $2.86 under par, the widest gap since this series began on September 9. The same session took $450.4 million out of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, the heaviest single day since June 25, with every fund in Farside's table printing zero or negative. Bitcoin trades at $75,710 this morning, down 2.6% in 24 hours, which puts price at 1.18 times the power-law floor of $63,888 and 0.498 times the median of $152,114. The Fed answers at 2:00 PM.

Price slips under half the median

the power-law floor of $63,888 and 0.498 times the median of $152,114.

The dashboard generated today's bands at 11:19 UTC: a $63,888 floor, a $152,114 median, a $456,342 ceiling, and a cycle position of 0.0855 against Tuesday's $75,584 close. The floor climbed $57.50 overnight while price fell about $1,760. On September 9 this publication opened at 1.24 times the floor and 0.52 times the median. Today the median multiple reads 0.498, the first print under one half in the September series.

The v4 forecast card refreshed this morning for the first time in weeks, dated September 16 rather than June, and puts 30-day output at $81,600. That is a model output on a fitted curve, not a call.

at block 966,997 with a September 19 retarget estimated at +4.89% to 133.68 trillion.

CoinWarz puts hashrate at 940 EH/s and difficulty at 127.45 trillion with 435 blocks left in the cycle. Blocks arrive 28 seconds inside target, so the September 19 retarget estimates +4.89% to 133.68 trillion. Miners keep adding machines into a 4% weekly decline.

STRC breaks to $2.86 under par

the $98.41 the dividend alone explains, for a 12.35% effective yield with the ATM closed.

Yesterday's edition set the test plainly: a finish under $98.41 after the dividend came off would show that the market bid alone does not hold the preferred near par while the coupon waits. The dashboard confirms $97.14. Sellers took the security $1.27 past the mechanical drop on a day the 10-year never moved two basis points.

At $97.14 the 12.00% coupon yields 12.35% against a trailing paid rate of 11.50%. Strategy has now gone 128 days since STRC last closed at or above $100 on May 11, with zero days above par in the trailing 7 and 30 sessions, and the at-the-market program stays closed. The coupon resets October 1 and not before, so the instrument carries 15 more days of a rate the market set in July.

Hashpoint's own analysis of that lag holds that a monthly reset leaves the largest institutional bid impaired for weeks after the bond market reprices. Tuesday gave the cleanest reading of it yet, because the bond market did nothing. The 10-year sat at 4.99%, the real yield at 2.62%. The preferred fell anyway, which locates the pressure inside the instrument rather than in the curve.

average, and this morning's $75,710 leaves the position $298 a coin above cost.

Strategy filed no 8-K in the last 24 hours. Monday's filing, covering September 8 through 13, showed zero Bitcoin bought or sold for a second straight week and 1,420,467 STRC shares repurchased for $139.3 million at about $98.08, every one of them above Tuesday's close. Holdings stay at 845,050 BTC on a $63.73 billion basis, a $75,412 average, with $1.05 billion of the $2 billion authorization unspent.

One number carries the morning. The average cost is $75,412 and the coin trades at $75,710. The largest corporate holder sits $298 a coin above water, and Tuesday's low near $75,600 came within $190 of the line.

The heaviest outflow since June

$450.4 million Tuesday, with FBTC out $214.8 million and IBIT out $161.7 million, the heaviest day since June 25.

Farside's table for September 15 shows $450.4 million leaving the complex. FBTC led the exit at $214.8 million, IBIT followed at $161.7 million, GBTC gave up $44.1 million, ARKB $17.4 million, BITB $12.4 million. No fund took a dollar in, and Monday's $159.9 million inflow lasted exactly one session. Cumulative net flow since launch fell to $54.933 billion, and the dashboard's supply pressure estimate dropped to 3.36 from 3.68.

Monday's 5.01% with the real yield at 2.62%, the 30-year at 5.34%, and the dollar index at 99.66.

CoinDesk counts more than $570 million of futures positions liquidated in the 24 hours after the Senate vote, the largest washout since August 22, and the CoinDesk 20 down 4.6% on the day. Trading Economics has the 10-year at 4.99% this morning, back under the 5.01% it printed Monday for the first time since July 2007. Futures price a quarter-point hike at roughly 92%. Retail sales land at 8:30 AM, the statement and projections at 2:00 PM, Chair Warsh at 2:30.

The Bull View

• CoinDesk: A Fed meeting that looks impossible for Warsh may still favor Bitcoin, because yields rising on inflation rather than growth send capital toward sovereign hedges.
• The Block: Deutsche Bank plans Bitcoin and ether custody for institutional clients in Europe, announced this morning.
• The Block: Strive crossed 25,000 BTC with a $36.6 million purchase, buying while Strategy sat out.
• CoinDesk: Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse and other executives read the 49-50 vote as a delay, with SEC and CFTC rulemaking continuing regardless.
• Bitcoin Magazine: Lightning shipped on BitBox, putting cold storage and instant payments behind one backup.
• The Block: Coinbase chief Brian Armstrong said last week that Bitcoin has bottomed for this cycle and expects two years of uptrend.

The bulls lean on agency rulemaking surviving the Senate's answer, on European bank custody arriving without any American statute, and on the argument that an inflation-driven curve eventually pays a scarce asset. None of that case rests on this week's tape.

The Bear View

• CoinDesk: Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $450.33 million Tuesday, the heaviest single day since June 25.
• Bloomberg: Crypto stocks and tokens dropped after the Senate blocked the landmark bill.
• CNBC: The cloture vote failed, and market-structure legislation ends for 2026.
• Decrypt: Bitcoin slid about 3.8% to roughly $76,000 on the 49-50 count, after touching $77,200 before the roll call.
• CoinDesk: The CoinDesk 20 fell 4.6%, its steepest session since June 5, with $570 million of futures liquidated.
• The Block: CoinShares says a price recovery will not pull AI-focused miners back to Bitcoin.
• Decrypt: Strategy spent $139 million on its own preferred and left the Bitcoin stack frozen a second week.

The bears lean on a buyer that stopped buying coins, a fund complex that turned seller across the board, and a $2 billion authorization that funds paper rather than Bitcoin.

The Hashpoint read

median, STRC $2.86 under par, the 10-year at 4.99%, and the ATM closed.

Price sits at 1.18 times the power-law floor and 0.498 times the median, under half the median for the first time this month. STRC closed $2.86 under par and $1.27 below its own dividend math, and the ETF complex took its largest outflow since June with no offsetting bid anywhere in the table. Strategy's $139.3 million bought shares at $98.08 that closed at $97.14 the next day.

The bulls get the direction of institutional plumbing right and the timing wrong: Deutsche Bank's custody desk and the SEC's rulemaking calendar both matter in 2027, not this week. The bears get the mechanism right and the level wrong: the floor rose again overnight, the coin still trades 18% above it, and a 4% weekly decline into a Fed hike is an ordinary repricing rather than a break. Both sides are arguing about a spring that has now stored two separate charges, one in the ETF tape and one in a preferred that cannot reprice for 15 days.

The next confirming data point arrives at 2:00 PM. A hike with the 10-year holding near 5% leaves the October 1 STRC reset chasing a rate that moved three months ago, and a second close under $97.50 would say the discount belongs to the instrument. The disconfirming one is a close back above $98.41 with the ETF table turning positive, which would mean Tuesday priced the Senate and nothing structural.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (summary generated 11:19 UTC, strc/current, synthesis/daily, predictions/v4, corporate/holdings), Farside Investors, Binance, CoinDesk, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, Federal Reserve H.15, Kiplinger, Bloomberg, CNBC, Decrypt, The Block, Bitcoin Magazine. Nothing here is investment advice.